Delegation Analysis for Epoch

Delegation Analysis for Epoch 212 (for d=0.8)

[Link to the original post for context.]

IOG recently announced that they would be reducing the centralization parameter, d , down to 0.8 for epoch 212 (rather than the originally planned 0.875). This means stake pools will produce 20% of the total blocks during the next epoch - twice as many as they are producing now. We’ve updated our delegation analysis given this change, and here’s what we found:

A stake pool needs at least 2.80M ₳ in order to expect to make a block next epoch (based on the stake snapshot taken on 8/13). Although pools will mint twice as many blocks, only 69 more pools can expect to make at least one block (a 5% increase). 308 pools are expected to make at least 1 block this time around.


724 / 1032 pools fall into the 0-slot bin

For more information about the concepts and math behind this analysis, as well as the full table that these charts were generated from, see our full post here.

Please also see our recent post showing how fees are taken out of stake pool block rewards here.

1 Like

Epoch 213 network parameters:

k d Total stake Registered pools
150 0.780 12.77B ADA 1070

The stake snapshot for epoch 213 occurred on 8/18/2020. This snapshot, we saw the total staked ADA break 40% and an increase of 38 active pools. The minimum stake required in order to expect to make a block decreased slightly to 2.69M ₳, leaving 74% of pools below this threshold.

For more information about the concepts and math behind this and past analyses (e.g. the meaning of k and d ), as well as the full table that this chart was generated from, see our full post here.

Please also see our recent post showing how fees are taken out of stake pool block rewards here.

4 Likes

Epoch 214 network parameters:

k d Total stake Registered pools
150 0.760 13.38B ₳ 1123

The stake snapshot for epoch 214 occurred on 8/23/2020. The total staked ADA increased by 2% since the last epoch, up to 42%, and the number of active pools increased by 53. The minimum stake required in order to expect to make a block decreased slightly to 2.58M ₳, leaving 71% of pools below this threshold. 3% more pools can expect to make a block than last epoch.


800 / 1123 pools fall into the 0-slot bin


This figure omits the 0-slot pools

For more information about the concepts and math behind this and past analyses (e.g. the meaning of k and d), as well as the full table that this chart was generated from, see our full post here.

Please also see our recent post showing how fees are taken out of stake pool block rewards here.

2 Likes

Epoch 215 network parameters:

k d Total stake Registered pools
150 0.740 13.86B ₳ 1125

The stake snapshot for epoch 215 occurred on 8/28/2020. The total staked ADA increased by 1.7% since the last epoch, up to 43.7%. For the first time, the number of registered stake pools has stayed nearly the same; there are only 2 more registered pools than there were in epoch 214. The minimum stake required in order to expect to make a block decreased slightly to 2.47M ₳, leaving 67% of pools below this threshold. 4% more pools can expect to make a block than last epoch.

For more information about the concepts and math behind this and past analyses (e.g. the meaning of k and d), as well as the full table that this chart was generated from, see our full post here.


756 / 1125 pools fall into the 0-slot bin


This figure omits the 0-slot pools

Please also see our recent post showing how fees are taken out of stake pool block rewards here.

Good luck to all the small stake pools out there - here’s to hoping lady luck will visit us sometime

1 Like

Quite good article, just some addition.

The slot- and height battles are handled by the same consensus rules.

Every node has as many ChainSync instances as many connection they have (so just assume 20) and each of the nodes individually select the chain based on the consensus rules of the chain selection.

In slot battle (assuming different nodes /w different VRF keys) the smaller VRF output is the winner.
In height battle, chains differ as the slot nr. is different, but chain length is the same, assuming that the latest leader does not now anything about the previous leader. So, in this case the same consensus rule the chain /w smaller VRF output in the header is the winner.

1 Like

Meanwhile, me with my pool…

So-Youre-Telling-Me-Theres-a-Chance-In-Dumb-and-Dumber-Gif

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Epoch 216 (7 to 12 September 2020) network parameters:

k d Total stake Registered pools
150 0.720 14.39B ₳ 1133

The stake snapshot for epoch 216 occurred on 9/2/2020. The total staked ADA increased by 1.7% since the last epoch, up to 45.39%. We are starting to see a plateau in the number of registered stake pools. Last epoch, the total pools only increased by 2, and this epoch the total pools increased by 8. The minimum stake required in order to expect to make a block decreased slightly to 2.38M ₳, leaving 70% of pools below this threshold. There was an uptick in pools falling into the 0-slot category - we have 44 more pools in this bin.


800 / 1133 pools fall into the 0-slot bin


This figure omits the 0-slot pools

To see the post for the current epoch, 215, see our post here.

For more information about the concepts and math behind this and past analyses (e.g. the meaning of k and d ), as well as the full table that this chart was generated from, see our full post here.

Please also see our recent post showing how fees are taken out of stake pool block rewards here.

2 Likes

Epoch 217 (12 to 17 September 2020) network parameters:

k d Total stake Registered pools
150 0.700 14.77B ₳ 1162

The stake snapshot for epoch 217 occurred on 9/7/2020. The total staked ADA increased by 1.6% since the last epoch, up to 46.53%. The number of active stake pools increased by 29 this epoch. The minimum stake required in order to expect to make a block decreased slightly to 2.28M ₳, leaving 73% of pools below this threshold. There was another uptick in the number of pools falling into the 0-slot category - we have 50 more pools in this bin than last epoch.


850 / 1162 pools fall into the 0-slot bin


This figure omits the 0-slot pools

To see the post for the current epoch, 216, see our post here.

For more information about the concepts and math behind this and past analyses (e.g. the meaning of k and d), as well as the full table that this chart was generated from, see our full post here.

Please also see our recent post showing how fees are taken out of stake pool block rewards here.

1 Like

Thanks Viper, really appreciate these summary updates (i’ll have a read of the more detailed later this evening)

Thanks for making it easy for people to connect with ADA :+1:t2:

Ta
MachTwo

1 Like

Epoch 218 (17 to 22 September 2020) network parameters:

k d Total stake Registered pools
150 0.680 14.99B ₳ 1151

The stake snapshot for epoch 218 occurred on 9/12/2020. The total staked ADA increased by 0.7% since the last epoch, up to 47.19%. For the first time, the number of active stake pools decreased since last epoch - by 11 pools. The minimum stake required in order to expect to make a block decreased slightly to 2.17M ₳, leaving 69% of pools below this threshold. The number of pools falling into the 0-slot bin decreased by 51 over last epoch.


799 / 1151 pools fall into the 0-slot bin


This figure omits the 0-slot pools

To see the post for the current epoch, 217, see our post here.

For more information about the concepts and math behind this and past analyses (e.g. the meaning of k and d), as well as the full table that this chart was generated from, see our full post here.

Please also see our recent post showing how fees are taken out of stake pool block rewards here.

4 Likes

We’re changing it up this week and releasing detailed analysis videos every epoch. We’ll include our normal post below, but there’s more to see in the video!

Epoch 219 (22 to 27 September 2020) network parameters:

k d Total stake Registered pools
150 0.660 15.66B ₳ 1166

The stake snapshot for epoch 219 occurred on 9/12/2020. The total staked ADA increased by 2.12% since the last epoch, up to 49.31%. We’re once again seeing an increase in the number of active stake pools - we gained 15 more pools this epoch. The minimum stake required in order to expect to make a block decreased slightly to 2.13M ₳, leaving 71% of pools below this threshold. The number of pools falling into the 0-slot bin increased by 33 pools this epoch.


833 / 1166 pools fall into the 0-slot bin


This figure omits the 0-slot pools

To see the post for the current epoch, 218, see our post here.

For more information about the concepts and math behind this and past analyses (e.g. the meaning of k and d), as well as the full table that this chart was generated from, see our full post here.

Please also see our recent post showing how fees are taken out of stake pool block rewards here.

What do you think of the video? Should we keep making them?

3 Likes

good video. Way too many pools given k

1 Like

In this week’s delegation analysis video, we included a new plot of the lifetime ROS for every pool versus the total stake and explain what it means. Please check it out here!

Epoch 220 (27 September to 2 October 2020) network parameters:

k d Total stake Registered pools
150 0.640 15.86B ₳ 1091

The stake snapshot for epoch 220 occurred on 9/22/2020. The total staked ADA increased by 0.65% since the last epoch, up to 49.96%. We saw a sharp decrease in the number of active pools this epoch - down 75 pools to 1091. The minimum stake required in order to expect to make a block decreased slightly to 2.04M ₳, leaving 69% of pools below this threshold. The number of pools falling into the 0-slot bin decreased by 76 pools this epoch.


757 / 1109 pools fall into the 0-slot bin


This plot omits the pools in the 0-slot bin


Here is the plot of lifetime ROS vs pool size. Please see our video above for a discussion of the meaning behind it.

To see the post for the current epoch, 219, see our post here.

For more information about the concepts and math behind this and past analyses (e.g. the meaning of k and d), as well as the full table that this chart was generated from, see our full post here.

Please also see our recent post showing how fees are taken out of stake pool block rewards here.

2 Likes

These analyses are great! Keep 'em coming.

1 Like

Epoch 221 (02 October - 07 October) network parameters:

k d Total stake Registered pools
150 0.62 16.06B ₳ 1089

The stake snapshot for epoch 221 occurred on Sunday 27 September. The total staked ADA increased by 0.57% since the last epoch, up to 50.53%. We saw a decrease in the number of active pools this epoch - down 2 pools to 1089. The minimum stake required in order to expect to make a block decreased slightly to 1.96M ₳, leaving 69% of pools below this threshold. The number of pools falling into the 0-slot bin decreased by 2 pools this epoch.

expected_slots_epoch221
755 / 1089 pools fall into the 0-slot bin

expected_slots_epoch221_2
This plot omits the pools in the 0-slot bins

LifetimeROS_vs_Stake_Epoch220
This plot shows lifetime ROS vs pool size

To see the post for the current epoch, 220, see our post here.

For more information about the concepts and math behind this and past analyses (e.g. the meaning of k and d), as well as the full table that this chart was generated from, see our full post here.

Please also see our recent post showing how fees are taken out of stake pool block rewards here.

2 Likes

Epoch 222 (07 October - 12 October) network parameters:

k d Total stake Registered pools
150 0.6 16.37B ₳ 1095

The stake snapshot for epoch 222 occurred on Friday 02 October. The total staked ADA increased by 0.98% since the last epoch, up to 51.51%. We saw an increase in the number of active pools this epoch - up 6 pools to 1095. The minimum stake required in order to expect to make a block decreased slightly to 1.89M ₳, leaving 68% of pools below this threshold. The number of pools falling into the 0-slot bin decreased by 7 pools this epoch.

expected_slots_epoch222

748 / 1095 pools fall into the 0-slot bin

expected_slots_epoch222_2

This plot omits the pools in the 0-slot bins

LifetimeROS_vs_Stake_Epoch221

This plot shows lifetime ROS vs pool size

To see the post for the current epoch, 221, see our post here.

For more information about the concepts and math behind this and past analyses (e.g. the meaning of k and d), as well as the full table that this chart was generated from, see our full post here.

Please also see our recent post showing how fees are taken out of stake pool block rewards here.

1 Like

Epoch 223 (12 October - 17 October) network parameters:

k d Total stake Registered pools
150 0.58 16.74B ₳ 1105

The stake snapshot for epoch 223 occurred on Wednesday 07 October. The total staked ADA increased by 1.13% since the last epoch, up to 52.64%. We saw an increase in the number of active pools this epoch - up 10 pools to 1105. The minimum stake required in order to expect to make a block decreased slightly to 1.85M ₳, leaving 69% of pools below this threshold. The number of pools falling into the 0-slot bin increased by 11 pools this epoch.

expected_slots_epoch223
759 / 1105 pools fall into the 0-slot bin

expected_slots_epoch223_2
This plot omits the pools in the 0-slot bins

ROS_vs_Stake
See the interactive version of this plot at https://adafolio.com/portfolio/072a4afc-025c-11eb-ab11-a45e60be653b

To see the post for the current epoch, 222, see our post here.

For more information about the concepts and math behind this and past analyses (e.g. the meaning of k and d), as well as the full table that this chart was generated from, see our full post here.

Please also see our recent post showing how fees are taken out of stake pool block rewards here.

3 Likes

So does this mean that stake pools with less then 1.85 million ADA have little to no chance of earning any rewards? Doesn’t this seem to go against the stated goal of making things decentralized?

1 Like

No, it just means that, statistically, those pools have a less than 50/50 chance of making a block each epoch. Over a longer period, rewards remain broadly proportional to stake.

1 Like