I like both of your strategies and tend to side with Cosmos in that I’m not smart enough to time it like ePowell and the ability for this to go parabolic with institutional money is greater now than per se 2015 and before. So ePowell going back to your analysis is skeptical because the psychological barrier is broken…right now we are in the early phases of smart money and moving into institutional investors…that’s parabolic. FOR EXAMPLE, if there is an ETF of bitcoin and you could purchase bitcoin via the stock market …think through that statement…all these prices could run away from us. However, like all markets this will go up and then crash and consolidate as weak hands and weak business models of coins get shaken out & scams get figured out (bitconnect).
For me the strategy is dollar cost average on coins that i know have the most potential and not worry about it. If i want to time the market it’s a higher risk/reward asymetric scenario to get into the top 20 ICO’s at private placement penny stock prices …sell half when they first get released into the secondary market where you will usually reap the biggest premiums in that time period and then cold storage the rest of the coins in case they become the next Amazon. Take the profits from the half you sold and either A) add to your stack on the coins you know have potential or B) rinse repeat on the ICO process.
I’m sorry but ADA is not BC. Right now you have the worse posible scenario for the strategy "buying low, selling hight) and even if you have holding in others ICOS. The reason? Just look the charts and the huge gap between the USD value and BC. Ada is expensive in BC and cheap in USD. The only way to improve your stack is buying with FIAT. You can’t sell ADA at hight prices because 0.05 cents risks in a market like now is more a suicide than win. And almost everyone is understanding the issue as you can see the drop in volume during the last 24 hours.
Now we need to wait for BC to go up if you have ICOS or buy if you have FIAT. Yesterday was a great day to buy.
Interesting take. I also think one has to look at the difficulty of getting Fiat into the crypto system and then actually being able to buy crypto’s on the exchanges. Too many points of failure…when i look at those barriers it makes me want to concentrate on getting into position as prudently as possible.
What you say could be possible… there are always many factors there that we are unaware of… very very likely with my attitude I will end up “missing the train” again as I did with BTC.
But deep down inside me I have a “feeling” in my stomach which tells me something very weird is going to happen… …so I will wait.
A little voice inside me is telling me: " don’t invest when everyone else is totally excited about investing" " don’t go chasing Bulls"… “wait until nobody is interested > then invest and wait a while”.
But… when I was 12 years old over 40 years ago, I was convinced to invest $1000 in some stocks and it all suddenly vanished on the first day. Since then I have been very skeptical about investing > I am aware that everything can vanish in a flash. ESPECIALLY when everyone around is FOMOing like crazy.
We can go on coming up with reasons and arguments to convince ourselves that everything will just keep “going to the moon”. . . . but, I am not so easily convinced. that’s just me.
Listen to all and follow none. We are all just guessing I would challenge you though when you say “everyone is totally excited” …still only 1% of retail public is in so within that 1% there is excitement and there are others that are skeptical waiting for bigger dips. All could happen. However, if we are looking at Cardano specific trigger events …the announcement of Shelly and staking will drive the ADA price higher and not lower so I would cautiously encourage you to maybe use that shelly announcement/staking pool as your buy before date. I.e. wait for the big dip but if it doesn’t happen before the announcement/staking pools then at least take a nibble prior to staking pool which will add another price level to the ADA as people don’t sell and instead stake for a chance a passive ADA.
epowell, I can’t help but notice you’ve outlined your investment strategy, which is to ‘wait’ until BTC crashes and then you can buy Ada for 15p. We just had a big dip and a great buying opportunity, that I assume you passed on. Is it possible that you think you can influence the market by telling everyone here that it’s all going to crash? Being skeptical and acknowledging the volatility is one thing, but you seemed convinced it’s all going to go crash. If so, why not short BTC? What if today is the lowest Ada ever goes? Have you acknowledged the risk of missing out?
I want to extend my thankyou for the clarity and “peer review” spirit of this forum.
I’m glad to see accounting of the emotional side of our brains as we trade and invest.
“From small beginnings come great things.” ~Author Unknown
At this point in the market there are so many variables I think I am best off with things simple. I daresay we are better off trading other active pairs and markets right now and not amiss to average more into here.
Q2 and Shelley maybe I will try to trade up on a on double top but only with a certain low amount and stress-free.
I appreciate again the tone of your points and ideas, very “peer review” in a contributory way.
Thank you,
Heffer
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In all likelihood, my “analysis” is majorly flawed which will render it impractical. However I posted a few posts ago what happened to BTC during the previous crash, and if you go back to other previous crashes, and other big crashes in history, the patterns are uncannily similar > so it is on this basis that I am making my current predictions (which are quite likely wrong, admittedly).
No no, I am absolutely not trying to “influence the market” even tho it might look like that . rather just feel the need to bounce my ideas off something as a reality check - and perhaps offer a reality check for others - might wake some people up to the risks involved in all of this.
I do feel that crypto will get much much bigger - but for me the big question is that will it get much bigger RIGHT NOW (meaning this bubble will NOT pop anytime soon) or, do we have a huge POP and then start again from LOW and build up to that mass adoption huge next bubble. My guess is that we will have a huge crash FIRST. My reasoning is that basically all of the coins right now don’t actually have a viable working product > it is all spec and theory… this is highly worrisome. Human greed and fear is very likely to win the day in the short term while we wait for the products to catch up to these market caps.
The other thing to consider is that the banksters most certainly have got some sinister plans to attempt to trigger a big collapse > also, the general economy might have a huge set back in 2018…
…so I’m banking on a collapse before mass adoption. . . . but I might miss the train - I know Let’s see
Hi Saline, agreed, the current system still feels very vulnerable. ‘Getting in’, ‘moving around’, and ‘getting out’ in fiat or tangible assets feels like having to jump through many hoops (which are occasionally closed); potential bottlenecks everywhere…
I think when things start to become really volatile or problematic (it’s coming…) everything will just seize up. There is a risk that, even if there is still value in cryptos, there will be no access anymore. So prudence seems to be the best way forward. I limit what I put in in total (not more then I’m willing to lose), diversify in coins I think have potential (and for most keep inlay limited), and where possible choose the ones that align to how I think society should work.
Maybe interesting addition (from a text I posted earlier in the week on another forum); thoughts very welcome:
…
Completely new to anything that is ‘investing’ (well, OK, speculation). Prices are going up again, but good to have a view of potential dynamics. Can it help to look at some of the issues that may drive prices?
My thoughts:
Positive to price rise:
_ * Not that many people are in the market, how many now, a couple of %? Have we passed the early adapters (quick startpage search puts this at around 14%). I think we’re still far from this._ * It seems there is a line to get in (some key exchanges closed to new entrants, tax returns, more awareness) * Institutional investors coming in; I read somewhere that these are planning to get in in the near future * There seems to be more and more people realising that the current financial/ political system is floundering, and cryptocurrencies are a way out of these. So is this a flight from paper into crypto instead of a bubble in cryptos? * Perception that this will be big (ultimately) * Many HODLers giving a base (though I’m not sure that many HODLing actually does anything to price changes)
Negative to price rise:
* Prices don’t seem to reflect real current value of the blockchains to society (but of potential promises); usefulness overall is still limited. Real value almost impossible to assess * Generally negative coverage in media * Powerful opponents: government, banks, ‘trusted’ 3rd parties, regulation almost certainly to come sooner than later * Banks have an interest in pushing down prices and trust before getting in * Not that straightforward to ‘get in’; takes time to convert fiat->crypto; need to jump through (occasionally closed) hoops to change crypto->crypto * Perception of many that this is a bubble, with media reinforcing this message * Rotten apples in the cryptoverse * Volatility in the market; very dynamic sphere
It seems that this is a bubble, is it not early for it to pop yet though?
Am I missing things, did I make wrong assumptions? Any thoughts?
Watching all this in slightly baffled amazement/ bemusement (though feeling for the ones who are getting burnt…).
I suppose that we’ll go through several bubbles with severe drops with longer periods of relative stability (low value) in between. As we don’t really know where we are now though, and as timing the market is not really possible, wouldn’t a compromise approach be more interesting? E.g. HODL 50%, and have 50% attributed to sell high-buy low? This will obviously depend on personal situation. I’m sure you thought of this approach, is there a reason why you choose not to follow this approach? Trying to learn
And
Yep, it’s in the pipeline. We cannot exactly foresee how this will play out, but hedging and diversifying seems to be the best approach, cryptos is one of the ways I’m trying to do this.
Happy if I can provide ideas, though I’m sure you would have come up with that yourself
I also believe there will be some kind of reset in the financial system and probably society; infinite growth on a finite planet isn’t possible. Too many systems (environmental, financial, social, political) seem to be breaking in their seams, and pressure is building up and accelerating. Challenging to say when things will start to cede (the foundation has been laid though and the first signs are there), what this could look like and what the exact dynamics and triggers would be (several scenarios are possible). If this happens it doesn’t seem to be a good idea to have too much currency on a bank account that can be blocked/ bailed in (I think the EU is talking about abolishing the guarantee of bank deposits…). Anything ‘paper’ is potentially at risk. While cryptocurrencies are not guaranteed either at least it is mostly ‘out of the system’. Blockchain approaches may also be part of the solution (or provide systems for buffering potential impacts).
There will surely be some turbulent seas ahead. But what about the runaway tech growth, the so to speak , increasing derivative of growth … there is a lot of abundance opportunity in the pipeline from AI and world productivity growth to the Moon so to speak
I’m not counting on runaway technology. The master resource that allows the complexity (and comfort) of our society is energy; technology is just the way we use energy to transform/ make something. No technology produces energy out of nothing. We still depend almost completely for our energy on fossil fuels http://www.ogj.com/articles/2017/01/bp-energy-outlook-global-energy-demand-to-grow-30-to-2035.html; over 80%. Of these fossil fuels it is oil that is the most flexible and useful. Our technology is solidly locked into oil. The Energy Return On Investment (EROI) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_returned_on_energy_invested has gradually been reducing and for some sources is close to 1. That is because the easy oil is running out fast. I assume you say that technology will open up new sources of energy? Have a look at http://naturalpatriot.org/2007/04/13/the-next-energy-transition/ to see how long it takes to transition from one source to another; it takes 30-40 years for a meaningful transition. The scale and importance this transition should have gotten so that there would have been an fighting chance of succeeding has been, and is, way to small (not even looking at climate change here). This is one of the key issues of our time, yet you don’t read much on this in the media… We’re too late, and while I don’t have the reference ready, this is also confirmed by government stakeholders.
There is so much that is not covered in the media, yet that should be. Much of what we see on the news are the symptoms of the underlying issues. If you want to better understand what some of the underlying issues are visit https://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse/accelerated; if you have more time, have a look at https://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse; the information presented in these sites are based on solid data and is not hyperbole, sobering… You choose, red pill or blue pill…
I agree, as a transhumanist-optimist … if you take both pills, all that is left is hope and work and prepare that it (SI) is done correctly, because, as you have so accurately pointed out, humanity needs a miracle soon. While there is talk of "blockchains, electric / marginally free energy ROI, and even very beginnings of geo-engineering ". … those are far out (10-20 or more) years , yet the question of SI is right now.
So, are blockchains going to be our salvation ? No , they are a helpful revolution to productivity, but , the question of post-scarcity is acutely in the room to “exponential” observers. So is the question of post-labor.
In this nature, like always, wall St is “ahead” in the game vs main St. As evidence – blockchains.
Had to look up what a transhumanist was . We are the product of our past and I’m more in the ‘prudent realist’ group. Very little technology has only been beneficial (can you think of any?), there have always been unintended consequences (environmental, social, political, …). Going down the rabbit hole has probably made me move more to the pessimist side. The thought of geo-engineering sends shivers down my spine. Very little people are able to grasp complexity (not saying that I’m good at it), and geo-engineering is playing with fire. We should change our ways now, not hoping for some elusive technological solution that may address the results of our actions. The laws of physics cannot be changed (despite what many pretend). Hope is a poor strategy. We need to learn how to use existing technologies right, and roll them out at a mind-boggling speed.
Blockchains may assist in how we deal with the situation, and that’s one of the reasons my I’m interested in the Blockchain. Solutions to complex issues are, well, complex, so we’ll have to have more approaches to address the predicaments we’re facing… These solutions will have to be a right mix of technological, political, economic and social elements, can you drive a speeding truck through a doorway? You get one try
We are all just guessing 
Let’s see 
You get one try 