Need help with block calculation

Whats the chance of finding a block with 3,000 pledge / 56,000 total delegation.

I calculated that around 5% with the 100% decentralization March 31st. So 1 / .05 = 20 days to find a block. Let me know if my calculations are off.

Also the breakdown of the delegations will be

Operator/owner 3,000
Delegator 1 25,000
Delegator 2 19,000
Delegator 3 9,000

Any information is appreciated!

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As I know the chances are reseting each epoch :frowning:

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Currently and roughly, 1m of active stake (pledge and delegators summed up) will give you 1 block every epoch on average. Please keep in mind this is just a statistic meaning you could get more or less in a certain epoch. So an active stake of 56k will come down to 56k/1000k=5,6% chance of finding a block every epoch and about 18 epochs on average to find 1 block (1/5,6%)

Ps: if you use cntools plus cncli cntools → blocks → epoch will show you the ideal chances too

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What CNTOOLS script is that I dont use cntools.

guild-operators/scripts/cnode-helper-scripts at alpha · cardano-community/guild-operators (github.com)

Basics (cardano-community.github.io) for instructions

can aspects of cntools be used even if I set the node up from source?
I use cn-cli to check slot leader schedule, can parts of cntools be used in that way? I guess I dont fully understand what cntools does

cntools has a friendly gui… instead to build transactions manually you open cntools and it will do the “hard” part for you… you can migrate to cntools but u will need to move/rename all files to the specific folders

cheers,