Real time adjusted v expected blocks

Could someone please explain the difference between the real time adjusted blocks v expected blocks. I am only a small operator and my expected blocks shows nearly 10 % which I take as giving me a 1 in 10 chance of minting a block each epoch. However my real time adjusted is showing only 4% which is a little depressing. So what are my actual chances of minting a block each epoch?

Real time… it’s adjusted permanently based on how much time passed/remained for epoch (percentage)

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Hi Russell, good for you for being part of the pool eco- system :clap:
Not a complete answer but maybe some help and looking at other posts (assuming everything is working your side) the current figure to ‘guarantee’ a pool gets the chance in block producing is 1.38M delegated

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