CSPA & SPO fight for true decentralization

I found what IOG was saying at 13:04 to be a great cause for alarm. There is a falsely presented line of reasoning here that the IOG pools keeping 15.6% of the stake (currently)— which we know the delegators will keep in those pools until they are folded up— is part of an ultimate plan for IOG to somehow support the small stake pools. :face_with_raised_eyebrow:

Here’s the summary of what they’re saying: IOG will take this lion’s share of staking profits now, and then will somehow later apply those funds for the benefit of the small pools after an unspecified period. Let’s temporarily ignore the well known fact that the small pools need delegation now, are starving now, and have needs far outweighing their need to be trained or “incubated” in the future, to consider this:

The speaker’s finance background would make him well aware that ADA is currently a greatly undervalued asset. If Cardano is giving over 2 billion ada this year in rewards (approximately), their average pool fees of 5% over 15% of staked ada are over 15 million ada per year. So first I would like to ask IOG what help they plan to provide with “training” and “incubation” that will make up for this current loss in income to other SPO’s, particularly the small ones.

Then consider where we all expect ADA to go after it finally leaves the 10-cent position where it is now… where we all know it will go after Goguen and the Ethereum token migrations. It’s a separate discussion what that multiplier might be, though many Cardano investors are expecting a multiplication in value to 10 to 100 from the current value.

So the value of earning ada now is vastly greater than the value of earning it later. I’m always surprised the official videos on the subject are not saying this, but since the speaker is fresh from a centralised financial background you can be sure he is thinking it. And therefore we should be very disturbed he is not saying it in the context of how our potential profits will be held “in custody” for us by an already wealthy custodian… while that custodian rides that growth curve instead of us.

The justification of “trickle down economics” (= “let’s support the wealthy, who will in turn give more money back to the poor in the long run”) is based on upon the fact that “a dollar is always a dollar” and the most a smaller entity will lose is interest on those funds. Most of the pools are running at loss paying for computing resources plus the opportunity cost of their time. They’re spending “dollars” in the hope of making Ada, and nearly all of us believe ADA is now in the lowest range it will ever be.

That’s the long game for the (small) stake pool majority: to recoup our initial fixed losses by making income in a speculative asset. Every block a small pool produces might not cover their costs now but its long term value will make it worthwhile. IOG knows this as well, and apparently intends to use the same leverage to produce the world’s most stunning balance sheet someday. It’s a crushing disappointment, to the rest of us with nothing but faith in Cardano, that it’s not part of IOG’s business plan to allow the bulk of the stake pools to do the same.

And for the stakeholders out there who aren’t pool operators, especially those staking with IOG & the other conglomerates… take a look at the younger stake pools which are doing well (on PoolTool.io - check their “Lifetime ROS” on each pool page itself, since it’s not in the table) and you’ll find figures quite a bit better than the middle-of-the-road rewards from IOG & other pre-saturated pools. “Luck” practically translates as picking up blocks the larger pools are missing due to inattention or incompetence… the small pools fighting for survival can’t afford to let that happen. There are lots of good pools in the middle as well with the same high quality and hard-earned results.

If my above reasoning is true, IOG will keep its pools open until ADA passes a dollar and hits a plateau far beyond. In the meantime you can certainly find somewhere more profitable for your stake.

And for IOG: with DeFi bound to be launched on Cardano next year, with an explosion of network utilisation, it’s the currently small pools who will preserve the value of ADA on which IOG’s massive reserves depend… not the other way around. This support will continue from our own pool & many other small pools whether unions & associations are formed or not. We don’t need to be “incubated” - we just need not to be starved.

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