I think this is a very interesting detail that is not covered in the calculation above already.
Here comes my wild theory about it:
In a slot battle between a 1M pool and a 4M pool:
- 3.5 of 4 times the small pool wins
- 0.5 of 4 times the big pool wins
For a 1M against a 2M it would be:
- 1.5 of 2 times the small pool
- 0.5 of 2 times the big pool
Why 0.5 of 2 times:
- 50% chance: big pools VRF is > 1; small pool winds
- 50% chance (remaining): Both pools could have a VRF < 1 → 50% chance for both = 25% absolute chance
If this theory is correct this has quite a massive impact.
I’m lacking data to prove this theory. I will take a look if PoolTool Data can be used for this.
While I’m doing so it would be interesting if someone finds arguments against my theory!
The next step would be to incorporate the different Win Chance into the Saturation examples.
And I would also include this in the Profitability Calculation Logic as it of course also impacts expected ROA: Stakepool Profitability Calculation - #46 by Markus-VITAL