Reason for this Community effort
In the IOHK website with all the academic papers (https://iohk.io/en/research/library/), there are no explicit papers covering the economic and political analysis justifying the Cardano ecosystem. While, it would seem obvious from an investor’s point of view, I thought it much more useful and constructive if the community could make a contribution towards development of the Cardano Ecosystem by producing that paper, not as an academic effort , but as an educational /informational endeavour . Hopefully, in the process existing investors and potential investors will have a clearer appreciation of the Cardano ecosystem specific perspectives, and potential impacts on the global economy.
A general overview on what has already been expressed by Charles Hoskinson, CEO of IOHK through his AMAs, Interviews and ad hoc updates to the Cardano Community
Charles Hoskinson, as CEO of IOHK the developers of the Cardano Protocol and ecosystem, has repeatedly and laboriously provided the rational for the unique direction for the development of the Cardano ecosystem. These include the following ( but is not complete ) that I could identify, not in any order of importance or preference:
A recognition that the current global financial system is broken with a structure that is skewed permanently to benefit an ever decreasing number of super rich, while a sea of humanity is left in increasing poverty or dependent on the “benevolence” of these super rich.
The increasing concentration of wealth is also accompanied by increasing concentration of political power which is being used against the vast majority of the powerless, impoverished humanity.
The only hope for humanity to stop this road to increasing inhumanity by a few over a vast majority is to introduce a totally new financial system that has no mechanism by which a few financially privileged and politically powerful can control its operations.
The fact that two-thirds of the world’s population are unbanked, based on the definitions of banking services and infrastructures freely available in the developed world and therefore a viable market.
There is, therefore, this vast potential of economic development and empowerment if these unbanked are given a new global financial ecosystem which:
a) Is easy to use.
b) Guarantees payment for Services and Goods.
c) Requires minimum level of education to use.
d) Provides proof of identity to secure the assets owned.
e) Provides proof of purchase and ownership of any asset.
f) Provides a secure and immutable audit trail of transactions from farm-gate, to transportation, processing, manufacturing and finally to the consumer.
g) Provides free movement of funds globally without restrictions from any institutions, both private and public.
The availability of this vast market of the unbanked means there is no need for Cardano to compete in the over-saturated, over-banked, over-regulated Developed Economies financial markets
The Potential Economic and Political Implications for Cardano Ecosystem mass adoption
PART 1 & 2 below are my educational/informational contributions for the Community.
Economic Analysis – Implications and Impacts
Let the COVID-19 human toll data speak for themselves
COVID-19 Statistics by Countries, Geographical Regions and by States: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Current and Post COVID-19 Economic Reality Context
“World will need new financial system after COVID-19”
"We need to avoid putting current system back together with sticking plaster.
The world as we know it is about to change radically as a result of COVID-19. How we live our lives, how we work, how we socialise and how money moves will change – and profoundly.” Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 01:27
“Investors are repeating the mistake they made all through February and early March. They are again underestimating the immense economic shock of COVID-19.”
“Even if the worst is avoided and there is no secondary financial crisis, there will not be a swift return to normal. Mohamed El-Erian from Allianz said the rescue measures offer liquidity but cannot prevent the slow burn of defaults. Nor can they kick start the economy when companies refuse to invest because they have no idea what is going to happen.
The market has yet to grasp that “we don’t come out of this where we went in”. Earnings are structurally damaged for years to come. Equities are not worth the same.”
“We need a vaccine. Until we get one, the stock markets are in cloud-cuckoo land,” says Professor Anthony Costello from University College London.
“The coronavirus outbreak has brought the U.S. economy to a virtual standstill in just weeks. Most economists — and bank CEOs — expect the U.S. to go through a depression. The only question is how severe: Second-quarter gross domestic product is expected to drop from 30% to 40% and the unemployment rate is seen rising as high as 25%.”
COVID-19 contribution to uncontrolled growth of Global Debt
US$70.2 Trillion in 2018 – Total Public and Private Debt ($20Trillion more than all Developing nations Total Debts)
US Federal Debt increased by $2Trillion in 2020
US Federal Reserve Bank increased by $2 Trillion in 2020
US Treasury Department debt increased by $2 Trillion in 2020
Devaluation of, the World’s Reserve Currency, the US Dollar trends since the Great Depression
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) – increased debt by Euro 750 Billion in 2020
UK - Government increased debt by GBP360 Billion (US$450 Billion) in 2020
Germany - Government increased debt by Euro 750 Billion (US$820 Billion) in 2020
Italy - Government increased debt by Euro 750 Billion (US$820 Billion) in 2020
France - Government increased debt by Euro 345 Billion (US$377 Billion) in 2020
Spain - Government increased debt by Euro 200 Billion (US$218 Billion) in 2020
Japan - Government increased debt by US$1 Trillion in 2020
Global Debt Clock
Sample of G20 Economies Debts in 2018
Total Developing Economies Debt in 2018 - US$55 trillion
Debt in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) climbed to a record US$55 trillion in 2018, marking an eight-year surge that has been the largest, fastest, and most broad-based in nearly five decades. (Developing Economies Debt in 2018)
This is the first time in World history when the entire World collectively hit the brakes on significant sections of economic activity as well as people movements.
Unlike the Developing nations where only 30-40% of GDP is based on Service Industries, the Developed nations “Achilles’ heel” in the event of a pandemic has become very apparent. With 60-75% of GDP dependent on the Services sector, Developed nations are likely to disproportionately experience severe drop in GDP growth rates due to COVID-19.
Developing nations’, largely rural economies are likely not to be substantially affected, except in their export markets segment. Most of their manufacturing is for local consumption, except for those segments engaged in intermediate product component manufacture before re-export to developed economies for final processing.
There is a significant assumption that once the pandemic is over World economic activity will burst out like a 100m Olympic race. There is also probably the overly optimistic assumption that individuals spending will be so pent-up that most of their incomes from returning to work will be spent on consumption so boosting demand for goods and services.
However, this is very likely to be proven false, because most people were so unprepared for this sudden stop to their lives, and even the most conservative spend thrifts have found themselves desperately short of cash after having run them down during the sudden lock-down.
Consumers are traumatised by this shock and with it come heightened fears of the uncertain future with the possibility of this shutdown re-occurring.
Savings rates and debt reduction will most likely be at historically highest levels. The trauma of cash shortage, during the lockdown, will see a very large proportion of incomes being retained in Cash-at-Bank balances at the expense of Credit Cards and/or personal loans, even if Interest rates on Savings Accounts are zero!
Without a vaccine within six months consumer sentiment will become entrenched towards a culture of higher level of savings. Expenditures will only be for essential items such as food, rent, electricity, water, and petrol. The restaurant and entertainment sectors will most likely fail to fire-up because they were not only regarded as non-essential, but indeed people discovered they could do without them by finding alternatives such as takeaways and online music and movie streaming, during the extended lockdown period. Only outdoor recreational activities such in parks, fitness and camping will see a surge as people seek outlets from cabin fever.
The unfortunate reality is likely that even if a country was able to defeat the COVID-19 within its borders, it cannot re-open external borders without the potential high risk of importing COVID-19 leading to another lock-down. This will continue to restrict global trade particularly in the tourism, educational and conferences sectors.
The global pandemic has forever reset the global economic and financial mindset to rebuild and/or restructure the economies to permanently de-risk or minimise the risks associated with what the World is currently experiencing.
There will be a very significant push for a more integrated system of health record sharing so that people movements are not disrupted or delayed due to lack of medical status information
There will be a very significant push for integration of medical status on Passports in a microchip so that authorities can easily verify through their online systems the true health of the person seeking entry or exit at any International exit such as Airports, Cruise ship Terminals, Cargo Ports, etc.
The role of the US in providing global leadership on International crises has been permanently diminished having adopted an inward looking “Me Only” stance as nations have suffered deeply both financially and in human life. There is most likely going to be a strong push for the removal of the US dollar as the denominator of most global trade, especially given it is only now 15% of global trade. The US economy, saddled with massive new debt and vulnerable to large stock-market and financial swings, will be unable to use its traditional bullying or coercive financial and trade sanctions strategy to stop the collective decisions of other nations to proceed with decoupling of the US dollar as the primary denominator of global trade.
A new global currency based on a basket of the major currencies (eg Euro, US$, JPY, Ruble, GBP, C$,A$, Rand, HK$, Won) or G-20 currencies will be created to enable global trade without the disproportionate influence of any one country’s internal economic fluctuations on the currency.
The argument for accelerated moves towards a totally cashless transactions has been substantially increased with the need to eliminate infections from the most durable, commonly transferred hand-to-hand object in the world – Cash . This trend will educate the public towards a substantially increased mass adoption ramp-up of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain fintech solutions. The key ingredient being solutions that have seamless user experiences when moving from a Fiat-based to a Crypto-based fintech solution.
Economic Infrastructure Changes
There will be an acceleration towards automation in the manufacturing sector to reduce the need for human workforce to a bare minimum, thus eliminating the need to temporary shutdowns due to a medical epidemic or pandemic.
There will be a significant large move globally towards the delivery of Government Services through online Portals wherever it is possible to ensure that in the inevitable event of another medical epidemic or pandemic, there will be minimal disruption of services
The future of Policing during a pandemic or existential Black Swan event
Indeed, the spectre of creeping authoritarianism – as emergency disaster measures become normalised, or even permanent – should be at the forefront of our minds, says Sennett. “If you go back through history and look at the regulations brought in to control cities at times of crisis, from the French revolution to 9/11 in the US, many of them took years or even centuries to unravel,” he says.
Source: theguardian com/world/2020/mar/26/life-after-coronavirus-pandemic-change-world
The future of postal delivery during pandemics or existential Black Swan events
Companies will substantially increase their share of Cash-in-Bank Accounts over all other Assets
Credit Agencies and Banks will significantly skew higher ratings for companies that have higher than Industry Average levels of Cash-in-Bank over Sales volumes or Receivables
All Financial Institutions will charge an additional risk premium on all loans to Businesses and Customers in the newly classified segments now known as non-essential. The risk premium reflecting that these Businesses could frozen and Employees made redundant or temporarily unemployed, thus increasing their risk of default. These additional financial costs to the Businesses and their employees will result in the long-term dampening of investments in these non-essential segments or increase in services costs to Consumers to cover these additional premiums.
There will be significant challenges comprehending, quantifying and remediating the outcomes from COVID-19 crisis on the collective human psychology that is currently being afflicted.
Depending on how long people are forced to remain isolated, the responses will be very diverse depending on individual’s personal financial needs.
Those who were left stranded without adequate funds will rush out to produce, create and sell their products. There will be increased crime rates as desperate people try to find means of preventing starvation or financial ruin.
There will be a new social divide between those whose jobs are seen as “ essential ” for economic survival of the Country and the world and those who are “ non-essential ” and easily dispensable. The Social psychological effect could prove harmful to economic diversification in the long-term if the “ non-essential ” sector fails to recover and grow to accommodate the predominantly part-time and casual workforce that cannot be absorbed in the full-time workforce. There will be a more aggressive campaign by these workers for more Government action to promote industries that create full-time work which are insulated from medical epidemics or pandemics.
The wealthy or well resourced, it would mean unexpected opportunity to acquire high quality assets across all classes at significantly discounted values, as many over indebted asset holders sell to fund their needs and substantially reduce their debts.
There will be a shift in the type of jobs on demand. In particular, there will be a sharp rise in demand for jobs that can be easily moved seamlessly into online platforms and then back into offices again once an epidemic or pandemic has passed.
There will be a decline in what are now identified as health risk jobs such as medical, nursing, allied health professionals, mass transport workers (e.g., Bus and Train/Tram drivers, ticketing officers and baggage handlers), social workers, cleaning staff and Nursing home carers. Some of these jobs will be left to the relatively unskilled or new skilled immigrants who have restrictions to safer choices.
There will be a significant increase in and focus on having cash-in-bank rather than in Shares or property well into the future.
Should regional towns suffer significantly less than the large cities and metropolises when the pandemic ends, there will be a medium to long term rise in migration to regional towns. As has already been reported that as infection rates rose in cities, many people who have relatives and homes in regional areas, as well as those with mobile homes started to head to these areas. Soon, Regional and State Governments were forced to step in and impose travel restrictions to only the current primary residence travellers. This long-term migration to Regional and Rural towns will accelerate the growth of higher quality telecommunications infrastructure to enable online e-commerce and education.
Which is more important – Personal financial choices to be able to buy, sell and manage our money Vs Personal physical freedom of movement? During this COVID-19 crisis, global communities and individuals have been denied freedom of movement, but not financial choices. So long as one has money and means of moving it, then they can do so.
On the face-of-it, people seem to be able to cope with the freedom for financial choices, because physical freedoms have existential threats associated with it.
During World Wars, particularly in the war zones, people accepted physical movement restrictions and reduced amounts of finances, but they were unwilling to give up, altogether, Personal financial choices.
No doubt, some unlikely existential future event, the so called, Black Swan, that will demand that people give up this last freedom that even World Wars were not able to deny. Where basic food and toiletry supplies could be home-made on small scale, then the personal finance through bartering could still go on, even if money and/or credit was not available.
Long-term trends towards high density 90+% urbanisation will, in the future, remove even the ability to barter since the ability for extended periods of home-made produce is eliminated through regulated raw material supply chains in the urban centres.
It is at this time, that the power of Blockchain Fintech will be fully appreciated if these have already been embedded as part of the overall global Financial Infrastructure. Perhaps, it is during such a time as this COVID-19 crisis that the World should sharpen their focus on developing Blockchain Fintech solutions to mitigate against the Black Swan, seemly inevitable pending Event, in the future.
COVID-19 has introduced the unexpected likelihood of a major transfer of family wealth from the older (Grandparents and baby boomers) to the younger generation, perhaps 10-20years earlier than would have otherwise. The rising death toll in the 70+yr olds will bring into force earlier than expected wealth inheritance.
Even for those that have well established Family Trust and Inheritance structures, sudden death of the key decision/visionary maker may cause significant unexpected changes in directions on Investment Strategies, and wealth distribution. Collectively, unexpected wealth transfers will run into the Tens of Billions globally which will create additional unpredicted outcomes in both national and international companies.
To read the next section go to:
'CARDANO ECOSYSTEM MASS ADOPTION in a New Post COVID-19 Economic & Political Context – An analysis for the Community – (version 3) SECTION 2
The Blockchain Ecosystem, Cardano Ecosystem in this new Economic and Political Environment