what I observed til now:
- If I had a low luck the next epoch/epochs will assign more blocks
- I I had a high luck the next epoch/epochs I will have less blocks
but, the lifetime luck is always 100%
I observed consistent luck well over 120% which sometimes makes me wonder whether the game is in fact a fair one. Consistent luck is never really luck. Assuming that it is not fair, it should be possible to find a pool with a similar negative track record and run a large scale simulation (i.e. 100000 epochs) to prove (un)fairness
Also possible that their math is wrong.
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Some pools have consistent luck no matter the total stake. For example i know a pool with 700-800k stake that almost always gets a block(more than 100% luck) and same applies to some big and medium stake pools.
I have the same “issue”, it started a bit earlier and it really is a problem!
Epoch: 295 → 296 → 297 → 298 → 299 → 300
Block assigned: 1 → 0 → 0 → 1 → 0 → 1
Luck: 27.47 → 0 → 0 → 28.33 → 0 → 43.1
Like @Alexd1985 said before those i did notice as well that after bad luck i had more blocks and after good luck i had less but now it seems that it won’t change.
For small pools this is terrible, i lost more than a million staking because of those epochs, i don’t know how and if i’ll be able to recover. Big and multiple pools will continue to reign unfortunately.
If this is the case, then I guess, The protocol is checking the current luck or previous luck to decide the next luck. because if your are less luck in previous epoch, then the next epoch it will get more luck, and vice versa.
It is an expected property of a random function that it fluctuates around its mean value. From this it cannot be inferred that the function takes past events into account.
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Bad luck comes in bundles, I guess. Next epoch 301 = 1 block
297-298-299-300-301 = 1-0-1-0-1
and MYLO total stake has gone up to 3.5M ADA
My delegators are die hard loyalists but they will soon question the Ouroboros protocol, lol
I am still on the same situation as well, 1 for next epoch.
Epoch: 295 → 296 → 297 → 298 → 299 → 300 → 301
Block assigned: 1 → 0 → 0 → 1 → 0 → 1 → 1
Luck: 27.47 → 0 → 0 → 28.33 → 0 → 43.1 → 40
And the saga of bad luck continues at MYLO…
Next epoch 302 = 1 block
297-298-299-300-301-302 = 1-0-1-0-1-1
and MYLO total stake has gone up to 3.5M ADA
wow, I can’t believe it 
My “bad luck” stopped at epoch 302, after 7 epochs of 0 or 1 finally 3 leaderslots assigned.
Ofc 3 blocks are nothing in comparison to what was lost those 7 epochs and i can’t cover those.
Monthly ROA at the moment is 0.384%
You may want to talk to @AndrewWestberg about this and find out whether there is a way of running large scale simulations for a given pool identity (i.e. 10000 epochs or so). I’d be interested to know, whether this is really just “bad luck”. Maybe the VRF is not so random after all. A good test would perhaps be to use the exact same stake distribution with different pool Ids and vrf.skey(s). We would expect to see an equal number of block allocations independent of pool identity.
Six epochs is too small a set to draw conclusions from it. Still, before jumping to the conclusion that this isn’t a bug, it’d be good to double check - if possible.
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I get the feeling that you might not be complaining about past epochs - in which you were very lucky indeed. I did the work for you: You now lack less slots than you were assigned too much earlier in your pool history. 
So keep calm and stake. Everything is correct here 
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How is everything correct when lifetime luck is 80 and ROI 2.9%?
Also the dice is not supposed to look at previous epochs when it calculates leaderslots for next epoch.
Plus the fact that you got lucky once when you were supposed to get 1 block and you got 2 but next epoch you active stake is for 4 and you get 0 to 1 for 7 epochs in a row is not how it’s supposed to work.
And i am pretty calm, we were discussing here, unlike many other pools i can keep that pool running forever even without blocks 
Because you - again - ignore the fact, that your lifetime luck also was 150% some epochs ago :-). it will consolidate around ±100% for the long run.
I don’t ignore anything but i am talking about lifetime now which include the previous ones as well so you are probably ignoring that
Anyway no point to argue we were talking about the dice and if it’s pure luck and if it ignores past luck etc so not point to argue for no reason
Where do you check this? Would you mind checking for MYLO or show me where to check?
I just did a spreadsheet and summed up expected blocks and created block vs. epochs. Quite simple.
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MYLO luck is about to change, I hope
Next epoch 303 = 3 blocks
297-298-299-300-301-302-303 = 1-0-1-0-1-1-3
and MYLO total stake has gone up to 3.5M ADA
Will wait till a pattern is established. Good that I talked to you guys to keep my cool. 
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I had one epoch with 3(more than 100% luck) and upcoming one with 2(again below 100%).
We’ll see how it goes.
And the party continues…
Epoch: 295 → 296 → 297 → 298 → 299 → 300 → 301 → 302 → 303 → 304
Block assigned: 1 → 0 → 0 → 1 → 0 → 1 → 1 → 3 → 2 → 0
Luck: 27.47 → 0 → 0 → 28.33 → 0 → 43.1 → 40.82 → 131.58 → 80 → 0
All this epochs are with stake over 2.5m, some of them are with stake nearly 4m. My overall luck is now 77(will fall even more) and ROA 2.79%(will fall even more).
I am slowly getting annoyed…