Adoption in Cardano. A statistical estimate

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The Cardano community is 350 thousand members. I reach this approximate conclusion because the Cardano network registers 700 thousand wallets and many members of the community have more than 1 wallet, and if we average that there would be 2 wallets per ADA holder, then there would be 350 thousand people.

It is consistent with 315 thousand users on Reddit (Cardano’s subReddit), one of the most popular social networks for discussion of ideas and learning (https://www.reddit.com/r/cardano/), as well as, with the same number of followers, Charles Hoskinson’s Twitter account @IOHK_Charles (co-founder of Cardano and Ceo of IOHK) and with 312 thousand followers on the Cardano Foundation’s Twitter account @CardanoStiftung.

Of course, this is an illustrative calculation and does not result from an accurate record, but it is useful to understand the picture.

There are ≈32 billion ADAs in circulation today (https://explorer.cardano.org/api/supply/ada), meaning that on average you would get 90 thousand ADAs per person. Of course, holdings are not identical for all wallet owners, as we know, the economy is dispersed in its distribution.

The world population is approximately 7.8 billion (worldometer). That is, considering 350 thousand people as the current community, only 0.004% of the world population has ADA.
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Own design based on worldometer

If 1% of the world’s population (78 million) were to buy ADAs today, they would get on average only ≈400 ADAs per capita. That would be an increase in the community of x225, and the amount (proportionally) would be distributed as follows:
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Of course, again, adoption will not be in mathematical proportion, the asymmetry that reigns in the world economy would not allow that. We should pay attention to a global economic analysis and this is not the intention of this article, since the amount of necessary data and its analysis exceeds it.

From the point of view of its quotation, as a rule of supply and demand, the higher the demand for ADA with respect to its circulating currency, the higher the price (the quantity purchased is greater than the monetary issue), but this increase is not directly proportional to the increase in price, since there are other economic factors that have an impact.

Today, more than 150 thousand transactions are executed per epoch.

But to understand even more, the dynamics in growth provide a better perspective than the static data at a given point in time.

The increasing number of transactions per epoch graphs the growth in adoption, which quadrupled from Shelley’s inception (July 2020) to date (April 2021). It should be noted that after epoch 244, at the end of January 2021, is when the big jump occurred. Also coinciding with the increase in the Reddit community.
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Cardano Blockchain Insights

It is clear that the increase will not be, either, with proportional growth over time. As they say, first gradually and then suddenly.

There is no doubt that the adoption is reaching Cardano, even with its full capacity not yet developed. In August 2021 the Alonzo hard fork is expected, which will allow programming smart contracts and decentralized applications, so the general expectation is of an (exponential) increase in the community due to its global usability.

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