When I have to assess price projections, I always look at the actual demand for the currency. Why would anyone want to buy ADA apart from investing?
Cardano is going to be a turn-key financial platform for the developing world. Think about it. Then think about it again. Then try to gauge the economic activity it would generate on its platform and how that could translate into demand. Let me tell you, calculating an exact price is fool’s errand… In other words, there is no way to know it exactly. What we can do it calculate a range, sort of a min/max figure.
Example: Let’s assume that Ethiopia decides to integrate Cardano into its banking system and into its economy in general. They might decide to use ADA. In that case the demand for ADA will increase by at least the dollar figure of the entire country’s economy. That will apply pressure on the price of ADA in the free market and move it to a new equilibrium. What would that be? It depends on where the price of ADA was before the integration but we can simplify and keep the pre-integration price at current level. Knowing the demand in USD terms and having a clear view of the order book in global exchanges, we can calculate by how much the price will grow or what the likely new price is going to be. Now rinse this process and repeat it across many potential countries and you should get the MAX price.
Dividing one currency by another isn’t going to give you any (and I mean ANY) indication of what the price should or could be.