Cardano SL statistics

#21

Hello @philpa! Great video! Thank you for all the mentions :slight_smile:

The one thing I wanted to clarify is that in the Cardano UTxO model (unspent transaction outputs) - a single address is not equal to a single wallet, but rather one wallet may (and usually does) contain multiple addresses, where each address has its own balance. It is impossible to know if some two addresses are from the same wallet for anyone except the owner of this wallet, and except some rare cases - this is a part of the privacy system (the same as with bitcoin).

You can think about it like this. In Ethereum - address=wallet, but nothing is stopping a single person from owning multiple wallets, so when someone is analysing the Ethereum addresses - it is a stretch to say that each wallet represents a person. In a UTxO model (like Bitcoin, or Cardano) - the same is more true, because for each address, thereā€™s a bigger chance that the same person also owns some other addresses.

Unfortunately, more accurate analysis becomes exponentially harder, because only this information is public. But the good thing is that overall analysis of the distribution stays somewhat the same, but with a slight shift to the right part of the chart, if you want to approximate the owners of addresses, to account for each person owning multiple of those. This is also the reason why thereā€™s so much addresses with a low amount of coins (less than a single ADA) - this is because a single wallet may contain a ā€œgoodā€ address (or few) with some average balance, and multiple ā€œchangeā€ addresses, where only a dust from some previous transactions are stored, until the owner moves it.

So overall your conclusions are pretty good, with a slight correction that the number of addresses does not really correspond to number of persons, but it is very hard to estimate the actual number. Also as the balance of addresses goes up - the chance for multiple of them to have the same owner goes exponentially down - because almost every Cardano user have multiple addresses with <1 ADA, but a chance that the same user have multiple >100K addresses is already pretty low, so analysis for bigger addresses gets more accurate.

Also I want to point out that this clarification makes your point about millionaires even stronger, because thereā€™s still a chance (even tho a lower one) that some of those >10M addresses are owned by same persons. So it shifts the distribution up a bit, meaning that theres a giant chance that a same person owns multiple >100 ADA addresses, and a big chance that a single person owns multiple >1K ADA addresses, and a decent chance that a single person owns multiple >10K addresses, etc :slight_smile:

But I liked it very much, it is really nice to see the interest to this kind of stats, and I definitely gonna try to improve the technics and make stats even better and more representative! :+1:

P.S. Also added this comment on YouTube

#22

Great, so in short, pay 14,211 USD today, get 1,000,000 USD in the future.:smile:

#23

Hi @vantuz-subhuman. Thanks for everything. I plan to make this video a series. I responded to your YouTube comment. Here is the comment on YouTube.

Very interesting. I didnā€™t know this information. I guess the most accurate picture on a UTxO model can only be determined closest to the genesis block. Thanks for all of your insight. Iā€™m learning a lot.

I had a question about the transaction assurance levels in Daedalus. If you scroll back to the earliest transactions in November, I see that there are over a million confirmations. Do these confirmations correlate with the number of wallet addresses in Daedalus from that period, or are transactions confirmed from addresses multiple times? Iā€™m not sure if this question makes sense.

Thanks again. I really appreciate it. I plan to make this a series, so I will be editing my next videos with this information I learned.

#24

@gitstum There were some slight errors in my analysis based on Cardano being a UTxO model. I was assuming that single addresses each belonged to one individual. However, since multiple addresses belong to individuals, this would skew the information slightly. Depending on how many new millionaires Cardano mints in the future, the value you posted could be less.

However, these are only assumptions and can only be taken into account if Cardano is successful and is able to complete what theyā€™ve set out to. :slight_smile:

#25

Yes, personally I have more than 5 wallets in my Daedelus which have more than 50 transactions using new address each time.

Yes, and I heard that IOHK has its formal dedication to Cardano until 2020 only. After that it all depends on the treasury. That somehow makes things more uncertain.

#26

based on @vantuz-subhuman 's stat files I created this more interactive form of chart:

https://cardano.bytemaniac.net/istoria/
you can mousover, zoom, switch to relative-100% view and set some basic options (bottom)

static preview:

2018-08-04_00h35_37
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It represents still the logX based categories of address balances.
There are some historical events and milestones.

There is a big leap on the first days of February. Ruslan identifed this as Binance related operations. IMO it looks like an early spring cleanup Binance decided to execute after they received an update from IOHK in the last days of January. (quite a lot of transactions with multiple input addresses send to single output addresses)

If you like it or have any questions or suggestions please let us know.

#27

Hey @vantuz-subhuman - great stats.

Weā€™re looking into build an Ada app. We think displaying/using your stats in the app might be really cool.

Would you be open to sharing your code with us? Weā€™d host it on one of our full cardano-sl servers, where weā€™d run it every 6 hours (or, possibly, every hour) and offer the datasets to anyone to download - and then make use of the numbers in our app.

If you donā€™t want us to share your code, that would be fine.

#28

Great video Philipe!! @philpa

#29

Thanks Rick

#30

Based on all constructive feedback there is an updated version of https://cardano.bytemaniac.net/istoria/

This graph shows ADA distribution per address over time, which ends up being the balance per address. As the lower categories (small amounts) get thicker moving left to right, that indicates a more thorough distribution of Ada among the population of addresses and assumes more people are holding Ada. If the upper colours bands get thicker, that indicates Ada wealth is consolidating into fewer addresses and assumes fewer people or more whales.

image
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Once Ada is used as a currency, expect the lower colour bands to become much broader due to an increase of smaller transactions to purchase products. If Ada becomes used as an investment strategy, expect the upper bands to get thicker as Ada accumulates in individual addresses.

credits to @vantuz-subhuman for starting the istoria project and gathering the stat data out of the Cardano SL blockchain as well as @rickymac for the above description

#31

New stats video. Thanks @vantuz-subhuman @werkof.

Itā€™s a little lengthy.