How does Cardano reach its supply cap via staking?

@Umed_SKY Would you mind sharing your Excel sheet? It would be very helpful for me and I’m sure many others.

We’re told 5.5% return on ADA but I know this will be decreasing soon. I need to do some long term planning on the inflation of ADA because Charitable Trusts have assumptions on estimated return on investment which is a temporary thing

Hi @Gyther,

Here is the link:


Thank you so much. Is it possible to add back in the yearly epoch rewards like the picture you showed earlier?

Edit: Nvm. I was able to add it in myself. Thank you very much.

What’s not clear is the expected return on ADA in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and so forth because this obviously is going to go down ( excluding transaction fees, but it’s very sketchy to determine how much that would be currently )

It is hard to determine the emissions for sure because the rewards for every ada that isn’t staked basically go back to the reserves… so they do not deplete at the rate of 0.30% per epoch. Now that said, we could still determine the ceiling for the depletion rate (assuming 100% staked ADA) that could be useful for long-term planning.

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Yes, a ballpark would be helpful. I modified your spreadsheet with some data.


Which gave me this:

It’s not clear how the Table Function works. And it’s not immediately clear how the reserves of ADA affects the expected % payout? Is there a way to generate from your spreadsheet the expected return on ADA for the entire ecosystem ( on average ) given the amount of reserves left? This is the missing piece which would let us create a expected Return on ADA by Year ( excluding Transaction fees ) .

I uploaded my edited version at:

I did a new version of my edited spreadsheet. It seems that you did a network return on stake near the bottom which is close to what I’m looking for. Link Here:

Edit: I had a math issue, but I believe it is fixed. I did this by using MAXIFS, MINIFS of the full range of estimated epoch data rather than assumptions. The math is smoother now with 2021 having the highest Network Return on Stake and goes down earlier.

What’s not clear though is why you’ve hardcoded the ADA in Circulation as 35146594424.1978 in 8/8/2020. The math should be leading toward 45 Billion Ada in circulation at the end of Cardano’s life but instead shows 48 Billion. Luckily this issue doesn’t actually affect any of the other calculations.

By these calculations, the last ADA is estimated to be minted in 2103, beating Bitcoin by 37 years

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Nice graph, thanks for sharing! Do you happen to have one for this year or can advise me on how to get the data to make it? Thanks :slight_smile: