Ever feel the need to retract a statement? I had no business speculating on the future price of ADA as I really have no experience in analyzing such things, and although I will not attempt to move this post from the thread I will be retracting the above that I have quoted. (I do not know what I was thinking)
Nobody knows the future of anything crypto so your speculation is as good (or bad) as anyone else’s. The views of even the supposed experts in any field of endeavor vary wildly and often it is the outlier that turns out correct.
I must admit that when I reflect back to when I made my initial speculation I was super hyped for Cardano, watching all the video’s and constantly researching what would drive it’s value up, at the time I had a biased approach and so just wanted to see my investment grow along with the growth of the crypto space in general, I actually laugh about how I got caught up in the glitz of turning huge profit’s.
As I move forward and am more interested in functional applications on the cardano platform than I am the value of ADA I have began to remove myself away from speculating what the price of ADA will be and am more focused on it bieng an investment that whether it’s value is in the green or red it will still fulfill its purpose for the functions that I hope to utilize.
I am not retracting my prior statement because I do not think it will obtain unbelievable heights in value, I am just saying that I have no business speculating on something with out the experience required to back up my claim’s that I broadcast publicly - it could attain 10,000 or it could go to 1c and it will still function to serve the purpose it was built for - which is better than a $10,000 ADA IMHO
Thank you for your reply Merlot.
I think you shouldn’t feel awry for the previous statement . Ada could go anywhere.
While it should be clear that all parties involved in holding and developing it would seek the lowest price realistic/fungible price, to remain valuably competitive in the 2020s ecosystem, and that converting to fiat would not be as valuable in the end as converting to a side chain, which means fiat denominated ada could indeed be as wild as all get out … there is no telling how far the coin could go , because of the openness nature of secure FP.
Do I think it will hit $10,000 soon? No … $100? Sure , but not in the next few years. Could it hit 10,000 us dollars after the entire world’s value denomination has gone digital ? Sure – but in that case , your $10,000 will be not worth as much as it is now.
Investing in these instruments is fundamentally saying that you believe in the future value at the expense of the present value …
The real question in the room is not how “high” it will go, but how “accepting” of value will it go? Haskell is a good place to start.
The future is going to undoubtedly be a very different and wild place compared to where we are now. It is going to take radical openness as well as security to scale along the rails of new tech. So to me the real question is how flexibly secure is a ledger?
A paper dollar won’t be very useful in 2030 , just like it can’t buy me easy access to Amazon.com right now, but even more so. A us denominated bond is not a hedge against price deflation or inflation , because none of us can trust the fed to move fast and correctly enough … this is only going to get exponentially worse as the tech pace moves on.
It will at one point come to the question , (which it already is now in some circles) , can you even trust and rely on a Turing machine ? Equifax couldn’t , Sony couldn’t, and even Intel couldn’t . (Sorry, forgot to mention those ethereum coders!)
In the future , the church machine provides the security needed in an exponentially changing world. (And in the grand scheme , I believe it will have to be church + Turing to achieve reasonable AGI )
To loosely restate what CH said at recent discussion…nobody cares how many chips a casino has when you walk in to play…
This entire contemplation of “value of a store of value” is as much a social experiment as is the rise of crypto/tokenisation. There is more to this space’s future than economics, itself is a social entity and community. People as a community can make very unpredictable choices. I for one see too many variables to reason an expectation. I can feel and want an expectation for Cardano, but…the beauty is the letting go. Create the infrastructure the ethics and the vision then let it be what it will be.
it’s the trading volume that determines the price, not the market cap.
If only 0.1% of the total supply is selling, and the remaining 99.9% is holding, it’s not too weird to see it reaching a skyrocketing price!! Although the market cap sounds awful, it is only a number.
Let’s say if 1% of the Apple stocks are trading, and the share price drops 30% today, and gains back another 30% back tomorrow. There will be more than hundred billion dollars vanished in market cap, but re-appear tomorrow.
Is there really anything like disappeared??gone?? NO!!
The only thing change is THE VALUE of the 1% trading volume that people give it into!!
So we don’t need to be scared about the market cap number, the only thing that matters is the value people giving it into for 1 single ADA coin!!
Yeah, unfortunately you have no idea how the market work but dont worry, so few do. Market cap is just not some number lol you are right in a fairy-tale theory, but in the real world it doesn’t work that way. You are right that we dont need to be scared about market cap, but yes it does set a limit of how high it can do. Remember it is not the goal of Cardano or its Users to increase price, that is only the goal of you as a speculator.
1 ADA will never ever ever ever reach 10.000$ in inflation-adjusted value unless it became the only money we use and we evolve into a interplanetary specie with hundreds of billion of people, complete fantasy - or 99% of the coins go lost or something like that…
Just in comparison it is the same as saying Bitcoin will go to 19 Million USD.
Yes there is a reason this never happens in real life under normal circumstances, that is because valuation actually matters. The market place will respond to the market cap, because it represents a real value of what volume is being traded its not just a number.
I could absolutely see a Cardano market cap of $430B… That’s the market cap it would reach if we hit $10.00 per coin, and all ADA has been distributed. That’s no bigger than many fortune 500 companies, including Amazon which many people said would ever be anything but an online bookstore for nerds. lol.
That being said, market cap in crypto is massively misleading to use as a statistical gauge, because the number of coins (i.e. shares) is entirely arbitrary. I could create a coin tomorrow that has a total supply of 500,000,000,000, and if it goes to $1, that’s a $500B market cap. But in order for it to actually have that value, that means that at any given time, enough coins must be in circulation and traded that the liquidity is there to allow cashing out by everyone who wants to at any given time. If that’s not the case, then the market is hyperinflated and even a small selloff will tank the price because there aren’t enough buyers to absorb the outflow of holders. This is why we see such dramatic shifts in crypto prices, because the liquidity in the market isn’t sufficient to support the number of people who want to get in or out of a market at any given time.
If we ever get to a point in time where a particular crypto is actually used as global currency for day to day transactions, then this problem largely goes away, because the volume is driven by the global economy, not volume on a particular exchange. I could absolutely see a world in which Bitcoin becomes the store of value, and Cardano is used as the settlement and contracting layers for day to day commerce transactions. If it ever gets to that point though, I will no longer be invested because once mass adoption is complete, the price fluctuations will no longer be sufficient to make it a good investment, which is actually the goal of the dev team. That’s a LONG way off though… so hopefully in between we’ll all make a bunch of money trading it
Hehe… I am pretty sure the author and others here mean 10,000.00 USD (Ten thousand) aka. a market cap of 450 Trillion USD.
Ah… I read $10.000 as $10.00… I forget other places use periods instead of commas to delineate thousands. That’s what I get for ignoring topic titles lol. Yeah, $450T seems a bit unrealistic
Well, it is all a matter of perspective I reckon…
Lets say in the near future, ALL countries convert over to a new currency, debunking their old debt (as a freebie to start with clean sheets)
US alone have over 21 “Trillion?” Dollars in debt, that they are unable to pay back.
As I live in Norway, and reading Trillion written by an American, it is actually a Billion, since they jump the “Milliard” terminology.
But for reference, they have 21,000,000,000,000 USD in debt.
In comparison there are “only” 45,000,000,000 ADA available.
List over external debt by countries:
In short, it totals at 81,678,307,140,000 USD
Then we have the list of public debt by countries:
And as a new global currency will give added value to countries, they will be more situated for the new global economy and the chart below will undergo significant valuation change
In the long term, many (corrupt) countries do not want to converge to this technology for their own reasons, but perhaps we will see a shift where organisations like WTO sets new rules of trade for goods, forcing countries to adapt to be part of a new efficient system.
In EU they have Horizon 2020, because we see a light in the end of the tunnel for a better world.
Being a Lighthouse for this technology and promoting it, giving solutions to those around you will only strengthen the bond.
Can it reach 10.000 USD for 1 ADA?
The Cardano project is not destined for the Moon, the plan is to travel to Mars and beyond.
But it requires a joint effort to do it.
They wouldn’t necessarily keep track on the crypto wallets, but they would keep track of money flowing in and out of your bank account, and where the money is coming from. It’s just like if you deposit $10,000 into your bank account, the bank will actually report that amount to the IRS. However, let’s say you have your crypto, and merchants start accepting your crypto. You could make a payment from your wallet to your merchant, which would bypass your bank account. This is a loophole, but through mainstream adoption, I am going to assume this loophole will be closed or tightly regulated.
This is not a loophole, you have to pay taxes (if you are sitting on profits from when you purchased that exact coin) every time you make a purchase on something with Crypto, since that will account for a “sale” and no merchant actually accepts Bitcoin or any Crypto, they accept USD, you sell your Crypto for USD to the payment processor, and they pay the merchant in USD. Which is why the more that actually spend their bitcoin, the more the price will collapse, or at the very least create downward pressure. So you constantly need to replace any purchase with another speculator, paying for that purchase… Not sustainable, this is classic ponzi.
Adoption of Cryptocurrency hasn’t even begun, there is almost 0% adoption, and it will never change before the regulations change… No one can adopt Cryptocurrency in Europe or the US under these conditions… Now Africa might have the potential to be different… But overall that is why we need crypto for use-cases, that will create organic demand. Because adoption as a cryptocurrency has been a absolute failure, which is really no surprise if you understand the mechanics behind money.
Dont confuse debt with base money, debt instruments wont go away because we have crypto…
I mean the base money of USD is very low, just of my head we have around 4 Trillion base USD, so technically, so if we assumed everyone in the US went to one crypto, you couldn’t expect a much higher market cap, it would be higher perhaps even many times double that, since less we would hold debt instruments and who holds the debt instruments will become a lot clearer in such a system… Since fractional reserve banking would be transparent to everyone, but it wont be anything near the numbers you are using.
10.000 inflation adjusted USD will never happen, unless ADA was to become the defacto world currency and then perhaps 50-200 years from now, but the chances of that happening is unlikely low lol… Lets keep it real here.
Okay. I was not saying you should not pay taxes on any capital gains you make, but yes, if ADA does appreciate and you make a payment with ADA, then that is a taxable gain based on the type of transaction. I was specifying a “loophole”, for lack of a better term, because the IRS does not have the infrastructure to monitor every transaction and every crypto wallet as far as money flow. Why do you think Coinbase was forced to give the IRS information on all data and users? And yes, some people skipped paying their taxes.
I don’t agree that their is zero adoption in cryptos. Look at Bitcoin. They have futures contracts being traded on the CBOE. Japan and Korea officially recognized Bitcoin as a currency. Merchants and companies have accepted crypto as a payment type. And banks and payment providers are using Ripple (XRP) live as we speak. So zero adoption… no. Cryptos are not a failure, at least not yet, but if governments put strict regulations on cryptos and do not allow for innovation… then yes, I would say cryptos will fail.
Who? Give me one example of a adopter, I am sure they are out there, but there are so few you cant even give me an example off the bat.
A merchant that accepts bitcoin is NOT a adopter of Bitcoin if they receive USD, in fact they have a negative impact on the market.
Do you even know any people who have adopted bitcoin? That they would accept their salary in Bitcoin? make contracts in Bitcoin, and keep their savings in Bitcoin?
And would they still do it, if you told them bitcoin would never go up? (Because that cant be a selling point)
There are the requirements for adoption. You dont invest in money. You dont speculate in Money. You exchange services and goods for money, and park your economy energy in it… Anyone not doing that, has not adopted Bitcoin. The majority demand for Bitcoin is price speculation, which means its a basic ponzi. Bitcoin has no use-case, no organic demand. If we ever start seeing adoption, sure get back to me, but as of now, there is no adoption and there is a clear rejection of Crypto with no backing/use as money. Surprise surprise.
Even Charles says this about other crypto projects and their tokens, but apparently he thinks Bitcoin is apart from that, or perhaps he knows deep down. But he just doesn’t mention it because everyone else doesn’t know yet, or are able to understand it, or perhaps Charles is confused himself. He correctly points out Coins with no use case are ponzis - which he is completely right about - by his own standards that should include Bitcoin too.
I would never have held ADA if he didn’t understand this.
Nobody needs a bitcoin for anything… The only reason 99.5% of the people that wants a Bitcoin is they want it to appreciate in value… None of these are adopters, they just unsustainable pump the price… I gave a 0.5% to people who actually needs one for other cases… Which I think is fair… But these 0.5% cant sustain a 150B market cap… and these 0.5% could just aswell use some other Coin, since bitcoin is not proprietary in anything, there is nothing unique about bitcoin… Perhaps apart from being the most liquid, that is the only property it has.
I know one, Andreas N. Antonopolous, I like him, he is a very bright believer, but unfortunately, he does not add the human nature in his equations. Anyway, you’re “almost” right in everything, except the Ponzi scheme. I would say if Bitcoin is Ponzi then everything in the economy is Ponzi either and I think we’re not far from the truth.
Look I’m not trying to defend bitcoin. I’m trying to defend cryptos as a whole. Is there 100% adoption. No. Is there progress being made to reach a high level of adoption? Yes.
I think you are right about most cryptos in that they have an external value and the driving force is speculation. I think that’s why we see a high level of FUD. In order for a crypto to survive you have to create an intrinsic value. I think we see that with Ripple right now. Santander (Spanish bank), Caullix (Money transfer company between the US and Mexico), and TransferWise (remittance company) are verified using XRP for cross boarder transactions. These are examples of real companies using real money, but I think we are in the beginning stages of adoption for crypto.
Throughout history, it’s not exactly about the first, but it’s about being the best at something. As time will tell, the best technology will survive.
Link me to the the information about XRP…
Yes they are using Ripple Technology, but it has nothing to do with their token, or else show me. Sure they use their blockchain technology, but you dont own a part of Ripple techs by owning XRP. Their business is completely irrelevant from XRP… Its two different worlds…
Ripple Techs just use their XRP to dump into the market to fund all their operations and investments, while giving nothing away, Its very smart isn’t it. While they get to own a real business that has value and income… While XRP holders think that because Ripple is doing lots of stuff, it has anything to do with their useless token.
Back in the old days, people demanded stock for investing in your company, in the blockchain days you just get the money for free. Absolutely insanity, this will go in the history books one day.
XRP is not a stock and XRP has no use, so that means the only reason to own it, is to sell it to the next fool, which will only work for so long.
The banks you are referring to are not using XRP, they are using Ripple Technology, they have nothing to do with each other. There are plenty of uses for block-chain technology, I am not saying that, and Ripple the company will probably do very well.