For several years, Cardano has consistently emerged victorious in numerous polls on the X platform. Most recently, last weekend, Cardano triumphed over Bitcoin in the semi-finals and Ethereum in the finals of a poll conducted by Bitpanda. With 90K followers, Bitpanda is regarded as an independent entity, not affiliated with any specific project. This recurring success warrants a closer examination. In this article, we will explore various aspects of this phenomenon.
Bitpanda’s Poll
Bitpanda’s poll is just one of many examples where Cardano has been recognized as the most popular project. In the series of polls, Bitpanda started with 16 projects, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Avalanche, Polkadot, Solana, Dogecoin, Ripple, and others.
If you were to predict the outcome, you’d likely consider factors like market capitalization or network effect. Most would assume Bitcoin would take the top spot, with Ethereum following in second. For third place, contenders might include Ripple, Solana, or perhaps even Cardano.
On X, this seemingly logical guess doesn’t work.
If you look at the battle between Ethereum and Solana, you will find that 78.2% of the total number of 784 voters voted for Ethereum.
It’s important to highlight the notably lower voter turnout in comparison to the Cardano vs. Bitcoin poll, which saw 3,725 participants. In that poll, Cardano achieved a remarkable victory over Bitcoin, securing 87.2% of the votes.
In the final battle between Cardano and Ethereum, a record 8,794 voters participated. Cardano emerged victorious, securing 84.4% of the votes.
In similar polls, participants can vote strategically against projects they dislike more. For instance, a Bitcoin enthusiast might vote for Cardano simply because they prefer it over Ethereum, or vice versa.
It’s important to note that poll results don’t necessarily align with market capitalization or network effect. When Cardano is included in the polls, engagement from the same X account can be up to 10 times higher compared to when Cardano is absent.
Why is Cardano Winning the Polls?
Everyone is likely curious about the reason behind this phenomenon. The most logical explanation is that Cardano has an exceptionally large and engaged community. While the Bitcoin and Ethereum communities are also substantial, they may not be as actively involved.
There are occasional claims that some voters might be bots. In the past, we’ve seen polls with suspiciously altered results, often changing dramatically just before the voting ends.
However, if you examine the comments on these polls, you’ll notice that Cardano fans are very active, not just in voting but also in commenting. They often use the phrase ‘nice poll’, initiated by the Cardano Whales account. In the poll comments, Cardano fans frequently recognize familiar faces from their community, indicating that these participants are genuine and not bots.
The X platform’s algorithm might amplify the reach of these polls, which could explain why Cardano consistently wins. While the X algorithm may help Cardano, this doesn’t explain why other communities don’t employ similar strategies. Anyone can repost a poll and ask the community to vote, or comment on the poll.
Another possible explanation could be the rise of Cardano FUD. A significant portion of the community has decided to actively combat FUD, which may have led to increased engagement on X.
Certain media outlets, including major ones like Forbes, often portray Cardano in a negative light. For instance, just last week, Forbes published an article claiming that Cardano is merely an Ethereum clone, which led to a community note being added to the post. Interestingly, this negative piece on Cardano garnered significantly more engagement than many other Forbes articles.
The article had 92 reposts and 192 hearts, which is 10x more engagement than other Forbes articles on other topics, including the Paris Olympics. Some comments from the community received dozens of reposts and more hearts than the original post. This can only be interpreted as the fact that when the Cardano community reacts to a post, it can increase the engagement of such outlets as Forbes.
This Forbes article is just one example. The Cardano community faces similar challenges almost every week. Whenever any crypto media publishes blatantly false information about Cardano, the community reacts strongly, as seen in the case of the Forbes article. This ongoing battle against FUD might be what keeps the community so engaged.
Let’s consider an example from the crypto scene. BitcoinNewCom, an account with nearly 160K followers that primarily shares news about the Bitcoin ecosystem, mentioned Charles Hoskinson in a post. This post has become the most successful in recent days, receiving the highest number of reposts and likes. It has garnered around 200 comments, featuring both toxic remarks from Bitcoin maximalists and context-providing responses from the Cardano community.
Another phenomenon is that many people write negatively about Cardano to engage in engagement farming.
People’s Interest in Crypto Is Declining
Despite being a year away from a likely bull run, interest in cryptocurrencies on platform X remains low. Posts from major crypto media outlets like CoinDesk, U.Today, Decrypt, Bankless, Cointelegraph, and others receive minimal engagement, typically garnering only dozens of reposts and tens to hundreds of likes. Occasionally, very positive news can boost these numbers tenfold.
Bitcoin Magazine, with 3,2M followers, stands out as the most successful crypto medium, with posts often receiving thousands of reposts and likes. These impressive numbers are rare in the crypto space. If Bitcoin Magazine had shared a link to polls asking people to vote for Bitcoin, Cardano might not have won, or at least not as decisively.
Interestingly, Bitcoin Magazine does not use the X account to share articles. They act more like influencers and retweet often mindless posts.
The engagement of the Bitcoin community may be manifested in accounts such as Bitcoin Magazine. Around 5K-10K people are willing to retweet posts or praise a post with a heart.
Currently, the most influential X account belongs to Michael Saylor. Engagement is similar to Bitcoin Magazine. The type of posts is similar.
In Bitpanda’s poll, about 7,450 people voted for Cardano, which is still more than the number of likes Bitcoin Magazine’s posts usually receive.
Based on these numbers, it appears that the involvement of the Bitcoin community on the X platform is comparable to that of the Cardano community. However, community engagement can manifest differently. This is a rough estimate, and a more detailed analysis would be needed to obtain precise figures. That said, this article does not aim to provide such an analysis.
The peak of social media activity around cryptocurrencies was during the 2017 bull run when Bitcoin reached a new all-time high. At that time, everyone seemed interested in cryptocurrencies and ICOs. Social media was flooded with discussions, and people were talking about cryptocurrencies at social events and even on public transport. In 2021, activity was slightly lower, as indicated by Google Trends data. Despite this fact, Bitcoin made a new ATH. I predict that by 2025, public engagement will be even less than in 2021. Many people are already familiar with cryptocurrencies and no longer feel the need to seek out new information, shifting their focus to other topics.
What the crypto industry should be concerned about is the declining interest from newcomers. During a bear market, both the desire to hold cryptocurrencies and the use of blockchain technology drop significantly, which is a key issue that needs to be addressed.
Despite the general decline in interest in cryptocurrencies, Cardano maintains an engaged community. According to Google Trends, interest in this project is similar to 2017 when Cardano entered the crypto scene as a newcomer.
Why Isn’t the Size of the Community Reflected Elsewhere?
How is it that the size of the Cardano community isn’t more apparent in other areas? Why doesn’t Cardano have a larger presence in DeFi or a higher market capitalization? How can it be that only 170 people voted for Solana in a contest against Ethereum, yet Solana is still reported to have more users? The logical reasoning is that if 10x or even 100x more people are using Solana, according to TPS, why aren’t they voting in a poll they could easily win?
Bitcoin’s activity is roughly 4.5 TPS, while its largest second layer, the Lightning Network, shows around 2.5 TPS. Despite having the most coin holders, Bitcoin’s network isn’t as widely used, with most people holding BTC as a store of value.
Cardano’s usage is similar to Bitcoin or the Lightning Network, with TPS ranging between 2 and 10, depending on the number of UTxO outputs in transactions.
Many in the Cardano community view ADA as a store of value and see DeFi as a nice-to-have option they don’t use much yet. Cardano has 1.3 million stakers, but only about 1% are active on the X platform.
Roughly only 0.2% of stakers also hold any stablecoin available in the Cardano ecosystem.
Ethereum, on the other hand, has a huge number of users, especially on its second layers, with activity in the hundreds of TPS. Despite its large user base, Ethereum doesn’t win polls on platform X, raising questions about user engagement.
Cheap transaction fees can lead to manipulated statistics, as seen on Solana and possibly on some Ethereum L2s. Higher activity can also be driven by airdrops, where projects incentivize transactions with financial rewards, distorting statistics. Additionally, trading meme coins can generate many transactions by bots, making it hard for analysts to distinguish real users from bots.
Thus, while Bitcoin and Cardano show genuine user interest in using blockchain, low transaction fees can skew stats. Cardano isn’t designed to be just a HODL coin; it’s meant to be a global social and financial operating system, that needs active users to fulfill its mission. The Cardano community should consider how to engage more stakers in using DeFi services. Alternatively, how to attract newcomers.
I’ve encountered the perspective that Cardano users aren’t as interested in airdrops, memes, or NFTs. Instead, they’re focused on real-world use cases. It’s possible that Cardano needs a ‘killer app’—something that stands out from the usual DeFi services on other chains. For example, Axo DEX, which offers unique trading options on the blockchain, could be a game-changing service. Perhaps what we really need is better marketing for these types of innovative applications on Cardano.
Conclusion
Cardano will likely win the next poll, but this doesn’t guarantee the project’s success. While it’s a testament to community engagement, Cardano needs more than poll victories; it needs to grow its network effect, which requires higher scalability. The loyal Cardano community is willing to wait for advancements like Ouroboros Leios, Hydra, ZK Rollups, and partner chains. This patience reflects a belief that Cardano’s superiority will eventually be recognized.
However, this expectation can be risky. More scalable chains are appealing to new users and VC investors who support DeFi projects. The Cardano community’s loyalty may not last forever. To succeed, Cardano must start fulfilling its mission. Other ecosystems have accelerated progress with significant investments in development and marketing. Despite occasional contradictory results, Cardano needs more than just winning polls to thrive.