Catastrophic Collapse: How to Visualize It?

English General Discussions
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Of course it is. We want this to be a dialogue/ discussion that people enter in an open and curious state. World views are precious little things that people tend to protect fiercely. ‘Catastrophic collapse’ potentially makes eyes roll and risks switching people off and off-hand reject any point made. How many people will have a positive and open mindset on a piece that praises ‘communism’ or ‘fascism’ in the first line? We are irrational, emotional and pattern-seekers… We want people to pay attention, so they have to be guided gently to an idea, then, they make up their own mind; evolution, not revolution :slightly_smiling_face:.

Agreed if we add ‘cultural, political’. The book ‘The five stages of collapse’ from Orlov comes to mind ClubOrlov: The Five Stages of Collapse where Dmitry described the different gradual stages through which societies collapse starting with financial, then commercial, political, social and finally cultural.

Absolutely, yes, important point.

I’m fine with all you say. My message was more trying to frame the discussion in a way that might draw others into it. Your points align with the way I see things.

Ah, I see, well, if that’s all then it’s quite straightforward. Now let me see, where did I put my magic wand, I always seem to mislay it somewhere … :wink:
I’d like to frame this in a different way: the ultimate goal should be to reach for a state where humanity and the natural environment are able to coexist in a sustainable and beneficial way and where society embraces values that align to basic human rights. Your purpose fully encompasses what I say, I just add some elements that give some additional perspective. Because if we don’t get this right, it won’t be going anywhere anyway…

I see a lot of eyes rolling up to the ceiling now asking themselves ‘what have these two been smoking’, what has this got to do with Cardano?

Well, actually, a lot. The Cardano network is a tool, a potential solution that could address issues linked to current vulnerabilities of society. We are still trying to find out what this tool could do, but this should be guided by an understanding of what the problems are. And when looking at problems, we need to understand what their underlying causes are. Painting a wall isn’t very useful unless you understand that the discolouration is causes by humidity from a leaking roof and that the roof has been repaired and the structure allowed to dry before painting.

So where do we start when we look at risks in society? When we switch on the TV (OK, I don’t have one) and we look at the news, we’re looking at the symptoms of underlying causes and dynamics/ processes that are often not directly clear.

Let’s look into some of the underlying causes of vulnerability that might be up the alley of the ‘Cardano solution’. This will not be complete and there would be a huge amount to unpack (this could get a bit tedious) but to give a flavour:

  • Governance: almost everywhere there are issues with regard to accountability, transparency, equitability, inclusiveness and effectiveness/ efficiency of government. Vested interests have a solid foot in the door and are able to steer decisions https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=5tu32CCA_Ig

  • Skin-in-the-game: linked to the point above. We have created systems where those taking decisions are shielded from the effects of these decisions. Read ‘Antifragile’ from Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the funniest (I know, very subjective) book on resilience I have found so far (though it is also very insightful).

  • Technological and organisational lock-in: decisions about technologies and ways to organise things that seemed ‘best’ at the time, but that lock us into closed paths that are very difficult and costly to leave. Dependency on fossil fuels and individual cars in developed countries come to mind, take a map of a modern city with suburbs and commercial centres? That’s lock-in right there…

  • Focus on ‘efficiency’, while ignoring social and environmental impact. It seems obvious what direction it will take if companies only have accountability to shareholders and nobody is personally held accountable for harm done.

  • Increasing complexity and interdependency: large and important systems have become more and more complicated and complex (see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7oz366X0-8 for some background on the terms) with increasing dependency. Throwing in AI and IoT in this mix seems to be a great idea :thinking:

  • The limitations of democracy: (for as far as any country is really democratic today), in practice our ‘democracies’ ignore some very important stakeholders: future generations, environment, other nations, excluded groups (while I live in a democratic country, as a foreigner I cannot vote at national level here). A democracy will only work well if all who vote have a good understanding of issues and are rational and responsable… Democratic systems are not the most adequate system to deal with crisis situations (would a ‘democratic’ army work?)

  • Our complete dependency on energy, while we have to assume that availability of usable and useful energy will become more and more limited, see the post It can all go to zero - #58 by Afridev for some background on this

  • Our complete dependency on ecosystem services that are increasingly under pressure, and approaching dangerous tipping points: Johan Rockström: Let the environment guide our development | TED Talk

  • Distorted markets: much less my cup of tea, but I think many will agree.

  • Increasing distrust in society with regard to politicians, private sector, ‘other groups’

  • The deep-deep underlying causes are linked to political/ cultural/ economic dogmas, human nature and geography, but we won’t go there for now (and these are probably less relevant with regard to Cardano)

An incomplete list, shooting from the hip so surely missing a couple that could be relevant to Cardano (I have on purpose not touched upon ‘development’ and expectations, depletion and need for increasingly costly and dangerous approaches to extract minerals, over-reliance and misplaced trust on ‘technological’ solutions, climate change, demographic trends - population growth, migration, urbanisation, aging populations in developing countries, and several other key issues…). But hopefully a list that will help in taking this dialogue further forward.

Now, the question is: how can we use the Cardano platform to work on some of these issues?