Never minted any blocks

Good afternoon!
I have been running a pool since epoch 270, and even though it only has a pledge of 8k ADA and about 2k delegated, we have never minted a single block. It is almost 5 months that I have the relay and block producing nodes running with no downtime at all, and I still didn’t produce anything. shows the pool and indicates 99% probability of 0 blocks, and show 0 luck. Is this accurate or is there something wrong with the node setup ? Are other small operators seeing the same results?
Thanks in advance for any insight and guidance.

I doubt total 10K ADA stake is good enough to mint a single block in all these epochs. Even with luck factor, chances are very remote. I would say 100k ADA total stake is also very remote to mint a block at any epoch.

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thank you for your reply. So, I guess this means that any small operator that is not able to attract hundreds of thousands of ADA from delegates, may not really want to continue running a pool at all. This would also mean that delegates would always be attacked to large pools, which would, in turn, mean the protocol favors centralization among a small number of operators, rather than de-centralization with smaller players.
So, why would someone with 10k-20k ADA want to run a pool instead of delegating into an established large pool?

Anyways, I was just curious to make sure that nothing is wrong with my pool setup and this is expected performance.

With 10k you can reasonably expect to win 73 * 10k * 21600 / 23.48b => 0.67
i.e. 67 blocks in 100 years. For details, have a look at Operator cost vs. Just delegate

A good reward calculator is here.

Also, when delegating, consider that most pool operators (even without a pool margin) currently keep 6 * 340 * 2.10 => $4284 per month. This is far beyond what it actually costs to run three simple servers.

Find some pool that gives back plenty to the community or otherwise does some good with what is not needed to run a pool reliably/securely. The pool ranking in the various wallets can unfortunately not be used in that regard.

Thanks for your insight!

Since I have my pool running perfectly (EGRN1), and I have already invested in necessary hardware and have little ongoing costs, I decided to try and attract more delegates by pledging 100% of my earnings from the next 40 Epochs (until Epoch 340) to Cardano Forest project.

I am an IT professional, and decided to run a pool not necessary for extra earnings, but because I have the skills and means to be part of an environmentally responsible blockchain solution. I believe in the future of Cardano and I want to be part of it. Donating to Cardano Forest project hopefully will attract more delegates so that the perfectly fine-tuned and functioning node doesn’t just run in vain (however efficient the small-factor computers are).