75% of pools are unlikely to make any blocks this (and next) epoch [Delegation analysis for epochs 211 and 212]

Cardano decentralization has finally commenced! Stake pools are currently minting 10% of the blocks produced during this epoch. Below is an analysis of the distribution of pools based on size, and how many blocks they are expected to make during epochs 211 and 212.

The stake snapshot for epoch 211 occurred on 8/8/2020. A stake pool needs at least 4.72M ₳ to expect to make a single block during the epoch. The high d value this epoch forces 75% of pools into the 0-slot row. This problem will get better as d decreases in the coming months. To reiterate, these are the expected number of slots. Some of the pools in the 0-slot bin will get elected for slots, but they would not expect to get a slot every epoch given the current network parameters.

The stake snapshot for epoch 212 just occurred today (8/13), and it’s more of the same story. A stake pool needs at least 4.49M ₳ to expect to make a single block during the epoch. Only the top 25% of pools can expect to make a block every epoch with the current parameters.

For the full analysis and an explanation of the concepts and math behind these plots, see our full post here: https://viperstaking.com/ada-pools/expected-epoch-blocks.

Please let us know if you’d like to keep seeing this type of analysis. We can post updates every epoch as the network parameters change while we approach full decentralization.


This is not decentralization…if you don’t have much money you are out but you have a lot of cost (time and server).

Probably a lot of people they will retire their pool in the next month…

At the Moment bad situation

Keep in mind this is temporary while the d value is so high. Charles has said they are also considering raising the k value at some point. Both of these changes will spread the stake across more pools.

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