Just an FYI.
I have two Reward wallets setup on the testnet and so far it looks like between the two I’m averaging what would be about a 15% annual return.
I would think this would trend down on the Main Net with more stakers involved but it has been a pleasant and interesting process so far.
It is likely that we will have a bit lower interest rates on mainnet, but nothing can be ruled out. Around 15% is the right, long-term number. Returns could fluctuate from epoch to epoch and there are pools that advertise 50% annualized returns. Nothing could be further from truth. The protocol has a set number of ADA to distribute at a set rate. The process is probabilistic, which means there will be fluctuations… and some pool operators cherry-pick their data to advertise extraordinary returns. ALSO: If a pool operator had 400 ADA in epoch one and got lucky with injection of 60M the second epoch, he could average those two bases and show a very high return.
Don’t fall for this kind of trickery. Here is a good primer that sheds some light to critical issues in staking.
Theoretically could you not simply have been lucky and face an extended period of time in near future with no staking rewards? Simply extrapolating your actual staking would not necessarily be a fair estimate, right?
15 % sounds way too high to be a sustainable staking reward on average on behalf of the entire system.
Correct. probably not a fair estimate but it is the only info I have at the moment. As I said above I would imagine on the mainnet returns will trend lower.