Is this total capitulation?

English Trading
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Markets are affected by narratives. When it comes to crypto, bitcoin narrative has an outsized influence on investor behavior.

2018 started with claims that btc would reach 50-70k by the end of the year.

Then we saw the great correction. Right at that point the anti btc pundits started going on tv to claim btc was worthless, the bubble had burst, etc. The crypto verse narrative there was “the more they hate btc the more bullish I get”.

Then there was a unified effort to slow down investor interest from advertising channels. Google and Facebook banned crypto ads. This further reduces the demand for crypto. Again we saw some pundits to come out and bash crypto, followed by supporters who started predicting 25k year end prices. In the wider community the narrative changed to “buy the dip” and “hodl”.

The skeptics continued their constant bashing, saying btc is centralized and that it’s all a pyramid scheme. Legal actions followed from SEC on a number of cases. The narrative among supporters changed to “we need an ETF” once that happens then moon!

ETFs didn’t materialize then they didn’t materialized again. The market stabilized at around 6k for BTC. Narrative changed to “volatile asset? Look! BTC is more stable than the stock market!”

Then the hash wars happened and the bottom fell out. So much that the market hasn’t seen a consistent green board in days and that’s like months in crypto years.

The critics aren’t as loud now but the narrative has changed to “btc was overvalued and we have seen a good correction to more reasonable prices”.

The point of all this is that mainstream narratives matter, they fuel baseless speculation and despairing capitulation—the two extremes of markets.

As a result the fundamentals that underlie actual assets separate from markets to their greatest levels at these two extremes.

Only when the market narrative has completely exhausted all the reasons for the bull run, do you see the foundation of the next upswing being laid down.

Where will the next bull run take us? Honestly I don’t know. Nobody knows, but the if the parabolic price history is of any guidance, it will be to the new heights we never thought were possible.

It is always the darkest before the dawn.

*this is not investment advice. Please do your own research.

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Do you think we have hit the capitulation point? I still think there may be too much optimism. Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball (wish I did) but it would not surprise me if BTC goes to 3k or lower before it starts to go back up. Seems there is a lot of support at the $4k level at the moment though but all it takes is one whale to start selling to tank it. Regardless I HODL.

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If we are not yet there then we are very close, judging by the crypto chatter. This is a purely subjective opinion of course. I don’t have a crystal ball either. BUT, earlier this year I looked at the evolution of prices and came to an interesting conclusion:

  1. If you trade actively, you may win some or lose some. There are no guarantees in trading. Achieving consistent returns takes a lot of time, money, skill, patience and luck. That’s too many factors for me to manage.

  2. Price actions in crypto are very quick. It takes days to weeks for prices to skyrocket. If you are a trader and buy/sell early you will miss out on huge profits.

  3. HODLing is by far the most profitable long-term strategy, IF you have the time and guts to withstand losses of 95% or more. To a degree, you will also need luck, but the longer you hodl the greater the chances you will hit the next wave. It’s not easy but it takes three (rather than five) factors to be successful.

I believe the technology has enormous potential. People may even realize it on a subconscious level but a very few can articulate it’s economic significance.

Crypto is not your average bubble. It’s subject to price swings of course, but that’s because of the fixed nature of its supply. If you look at all financial crises, they all originated in Wall Street, fed to main street and average investors. In many cases the financial institutions were complicit in creating and disseminating toxic assets. 2008 was a good example of that.

Crypto started as a reaction to that. The fact that BTC has persisted for 10 years clearly supports the thesis that crypto has value as an antithesis to current financial system, which, we know is subject to periodic financial calamities that stem from the abuse of power by structures that constitute it.

To oppose that, humanity had to create something that is completely independent from the current financial system. That’s the only way you could curb the “enthusiasm” of incumbents. Once they realize that you (as a consumer) have a choice to entrust your money to a slew of alternative instruments that aren’t subject to their manipulations, they will start treading ever more carefully to re-gain your trust.

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I would agree with all of your points just not sure it’s done going down yet. I’m very much looking forward to next year though. Regardless of what prices do it will be a great year for Cardano. BTW if you have a DC meet up let me know. I’d hop on the train and come down and say hi. Kind of surprised there aren’t more Boston area people…

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HODLing is the best way, as you pointed out, provided you can afford it. Investing takes time and crypto is no exception. What’s exceptional is the degree this tech is going to change everything. I came as a skeptic to this space and educated myself to become a firm proponent of the tech. There is no doubt the technology is solid, the question is who will build the most promising platform. My money is on Cardano :slight_smile:

On the meetup: definitely! We will have a meetup in January. Would be awesome to meet in person!

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BTC to 1k! That’s where we’re headed right about now! This is Not financial advice. Wish Ada wasn’t tied to BTC.

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People are definitely freaked out now! Kind of surprised we are finding support at this level.

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Very possible that BTC will drop further. If it goes to 1K. Then we’re looking at ADA for .01 or less. Time for me to start preparing for buying some. Glad im late to the party.

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Yeh but price is just the first stage of the bear market if we are in one, after we stabalize the next one will be a bearmarket of time and that could be anywhere from 1-10 years and that is contingent on the project being a success.