Has anyone noticed that when you get blocks you’ll tend to get them close together and in quick succession and then nothing for awhile? I noticed this with my pool LOVE over the last two epochs and was curious if this is a trend or just random luck of the draw. Since I run pooltool.io I figured, why not pull the data.
In epoch 212 my pool had enough stake to ideally create about 30 blocks. In an simplistic world, those blocks would be spread out over the epoch in somewhat regular intervals like this.
However, in reality the 30 blocks came like this:
Which in itself is not all that surprising. If some blocks are assigned close together I’d expect others to be far apart so on average on regular intervals. However, when I look closer at the data, that is not the case at all.
If I plot the time difference in seconds between all the blocks I get this:
The orange dashed line represents something I would expect to see (a distribution around an average value) while the blue is actual. The average time between blocks is 12235 seconds, but the median is only 7707 seconds so its clearly shifted towards the shorter time periods between blocks…
Next I normalized the data and looked it it across a lot more pools to see if my pool was an outlier. To normalize the data I divided the time delta by the ideal time delta as calculated for each pool based on their stake. So now 1 becomes the ideal time difference between blocks.
So again, I’ve placed a orange dotted line as something closer to what I would expect, while the blue is actual data.
So, bottom line, its not just me. blocks tend to be assigned in streaks. Its like mining for gold, you find a vein and hold on on.
It will be interesting to see how this changes as d shifts lower. Its possible that this is an artifact of the temporary state we are in when pools are only making 20% of the blocks. Please let me know your thoughts.
Mike (pooltool.io) - ticker: LOVE
Note: I only used the larger pools to do the analysis, > 10 blocks assigned per epoch. The dataset used here included the following pools:
IOG8, OCEA5, DIGI, BCSH0, SWIM, JOY, DIGI2, IOG9, CHEAP, 1PCT0, IOG19, IOG4, 1PCT8, LOVE, BCSH, ADAFR, IOG6, BLOOM, IOG11, 1PCT2, HOPE, ACL, ATADA, ZZZ4, AAA, POP3, EMUR2, IOG15, IOG20, IOG7, EMUR3, NUTS, JP3, KAIZN, LEO3, CCJ3, MS2, ADAST, RDLRT, OCTAS, JAZZ, SP₳CE, OCEA2, WILL, EKTRP, IOHK, MS1, IOG16, SCAR, JAZZ3, POP2, KTN2, 1PCT7, ADLT2, 1PCT3, OCEA3, 1PCT1, EMUR1, 1PCT6, SOBIT, JAPAN, STACK, KTN, JP2, POP, BLOOM, 4ADA, SPS2, OCEA4, 1PCT9, JP4, NAP, COOL, COOL2, GAGA, IOG1, CLIO1, KTN3, KTN4, SKY, ZZZ3, 1PCT, ZZZ2, AHL, HRMS, SPS, 1PCT5, 1PCT4, LEO4, IOG13, LEO2, IOG5, IOG10, IOG17, IOG14, IOG2, OCEAN, CRDNS, LEO, IOG3, ADLT, ZZZ5, ZZZ, IOG18, STKH1, IOG12