0 blocks predicted with 2.3M stake, twice in a row, is that normal?


We are under a streak of unexplainable lack of luck - for 2 epochs in a row we have prediction for 0 blocks, despite somewhat significant stake (over 2.3M). We were regularly minting blocks until recently, but now leaderlogs are showing 0 blocks every epoch. Could there be anything wrong on our side, or is this normal?

We used to mint 5 blocks with less ADA than we have now. This way all delegators are probably going to leave us, I can’t imagine anyone to stay after so many 0 block epochs despite relatively high stake.

Does KES certificate renewal has anything to do with prediction? Does VRF ever needs a rebuild? I don’t think so, but we are literally catching at a straw here.

Thank you

wait, next epochs you will have more blocks than usual! I happend for me with 4M ADA, had 1 epoch with 0 blocks then 7 blocks

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but we already had current epoch with 0 blocks, and now next one is also 0. I don’t think any delegators will stay with us after that, so I don’t expect any better epochs to follow.

your Lifetime Luck 116%

so, be patience, the protocol is working;

the average matters at the end,

Your pool has 1.4M active stake, not 2.3M. It is a stochastic process and the lower the stake, the bigger the fluctuations. No need to worry.

What makes you think delegators will look at “luck” as a decisive factor? It has no predictive value.

in leaderlogs it’s showing 2.3M:

  "status": "ok",
  "epoch": 267,
  "epochNonce": "66d5ad6aaf4a8e9f1e58fa4565b28c04da7c795b23245e66ca40fa88e73f347f",
  "epochSlots": 0,
  "epochSlotsIdeal": 2.19,
  "maxPerformance": 0.0,
  "poolId": "7d59eb08203e86f74d3011c7e967ed50fbd0954001eab1cb00b69422",
  "sigma": 0.00010153908892664584,
  "activeStake": 2337597824572,
  "totalActiveStake": 23021654510419471,
  "d": 0.0,
  "f": 0.05,
  "assignedSlots": []

Anyway, while I agree with you that luck has no predictive value, I am not sure if delegators are aware of that. From what I have observed, major influx of delegators, not only to our own pool was almost always after some exceedingly productive epoch where luck was significantly higher than usual. Many of them probably follow recent ROA of a pool. I can only hope I am wrong on that.

Your chances of not minting a block is 26%. This is a Bernoulli distribution.

in single epoch maybe, but twice in a row, that’s one hell of a misfortune :frowning:

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in single epoch maybe, but twice in a row, that’s one hell of a misfortune

Regardless of what happened in the past you always have a 26% chance of winning 0 blocks. Like with a dice, the chance of rolling a particular number is always 1/6 regardless what you did before.

I would agree but you know … delegators are only humans … and humans are … well I should stop here being myself very human :wink:

Yeah past probability are called events, or facts. They are considered dead for future estimations.
26% of 26% is 6.7% so 0 twice in a row is still quite present. It’s a 1/15 event.

My record is 15 epoch without single block with +/- 300k delegation.

But the next epoch u have blocks right?

you were lucky your delegators stayed with you, but with 300k you are still expected to not have many blocks, with 2M it’s expected to always have at least one, otherwise it looks like something is broken on your end.

For next epoch we finally have prediction for few blocks, so it seems it really was just about some randomization.


Yup… After waiting so long… And to be honest, the waiting is really killing me. Imagine each epoch you check and return 0 block, while your cost never stop.
Luckily I got the delegation from CF, and it really save my pool. I have a contract with my local ISP to colocation my server for 1 year (now I extend it) so I feel that I keep paying money with nothing in return.

So, in conclusion, and my best advise is try to get an investor, or join venture with at least 1 million ADA before you start a pool. “The waiting” is eating you alive.

And while waiting. It gave me this idea about $PIGY token.
I know that delegator won’t move their delegation to save small pool. If I’m a delegator. Why I should move my ADA, it will give me no benefit at all.
So, why not we give them benefit, right? I come up with the idea that if one delegator stay for 4 epoch, he/she will get $PIGY as reward. After that he/she must jump to other SPO and stay there for another 4 epoch to get more $PIGY and so on.
It’s like creating small ~ medium fish moving around the pool like CF and IOHK did with their whale.

That’s why I try to distribute $PIGY among SPO. You can find the detail about $PIGY in this forum. And if you are an SPO feel free to DM me to ask $PIGY for free (first time).
Sorry, I jump to your thread with this $PIGY thing, because I’ve been there. Good luck to you all.