Gobal currency cap will be $140 trillion. BTC will make up 10% of that market cap. Given how crypto taps into global liquidity, it is not inconceivable to imagine this scenario playing out… crypto will probably be used as a currency more than fiat.
If Cardano captures 5%+ of that $140 trillion. ADA will be worth at least $155.
My take is that it will surpass bitcoin in market cap as Cardano has superior tech, security and TPS. I won’t go so far as eating my member, but I think we should hit $120/ADA by 2022.
Yup. Big IF here is if crypto’s like ADA will have this mass spread of adoption. But given its disruptive nature and overall market size it is not impossible to conceive some trillions in cardano happen in 2022. Likely? Heck no. What is more likely in the short term is high volatility as the governments scramble to get more and more legislation into the space.
Derivatives are a shell game, the nominal value is hogwash actually, it is just for accounting, It is not real… Even if the value was real, it has little to do with the base-money… We can measure and settle them in apples if we wanted.
No but I think comparing to worlds reserve currency, and the largest currency the USD is fair… ADA outcompeiting the US dollar in Its current form by 2022 is far out there… Could it technically happen, sure, anything can happen… But lots of stuff has to take place… Just think about how many uses the USD… and how “low” the market cap is… The economy doesn’t need that many base USD to function.
Keep in mind I also said in its current form… Obviously the USD is in for a bashing, as well as losing Its status as the reserve currency… This could be a very interesting event for Crypto because it is these moments in history there are opportunities for drastic change, but they must be taken advantage of. Unfortunately I dont think there is enough people in Crypto who actually understands money, to get this implemented, anyone tauting Bitcoin as the solution are pushing for disasters, because when BTC fails, they have lost all credibility and this will ripple across the whole sector…
Which is why I would love to have seen Charles actually denounce BTC, and point it out as the clear ponzi it is… He must know this deep down, since he clearly knows it about other Cryptos in the same situation… It takes bravery to make that call publicly, cause there will be a ton of backlash but he will have all the credibility to be listened to, post BTC-fail. Of course there could be legal consequences regarding this, should ADA not work out, perhaps that could be another thing… Its all about timing, we could get lucky that all of this plays out nicely and in a orderly fashion and BTC just vanishes into history without much notice.
Including M3 is also not a fair comparison…
Since if any Crypto actually became a currency, a M3 would naturally materialize upon it.
Also I dont really believe this is the actual route and purpose for ADA… I think the purpose for ADA is to become a network, like google, and things can run and be build upon this network giving ADA a commodity like status… Where actual currencies/money will be build upon/run on the ADA network - giving ADA commodity like value, that sure can be used to store and transfer value, but it will be interesting too see what the market makes of that… Sure ADA could be the default settlement cause of that status, yeah it will be interesting to see Its path… But yeah I really think Africa is key for this plan to materialize… With instant exchanging and so fourth yeah we could see a whole new world develop in what we have traditionally thought of, where direct exchange wont matter, it just happens automatically with no thought.
I agree that measuring the derivatives market by their notional value is not the most accurate way to gauge their true “transactional” potential, but let’s for a moment assume that the actual amount exchanged in option premiums/futures/what have you is just 10% of this figure. Given how volatile these instruments are, this is not an unreasonable assumption. Anyway, that market size would be $70 trillion. Still freaking big…
If ADA were any other fiat currency, I’d agree with you. It would have been tough to compete with USD or EUR, which are backed by strong economies that ‘pull’ a lot of economic activity behind them. BUT:
We are talking about crypto. We are talking about micro-transactions… say, in Africa. A villager wants to sell his cow for a bag of corn. This is where ADA comes in. Now multiply that by millions and millions of transactions and you will see that ADA actually unlocks liquidity that perhaps would go unaccounted. I see it as equivalent to fracking in the oil industry. Crypto allows to monetize transactions that otherwise would have taken place through barter. It also gives access to capital markets to everyone in the world if we build tokenized versions of shares/bonds/etc., that can be broken down into 100th of fractions. It would be a win-win for everyone. Capital markets would have access to extra liquidity and price discovery while people all over the world would have access to productive assets of their choice. The vehicle that would make all this happen would be Cardano, more specifically–ADA.
ADA doesn’t have to compete with USD or EUR or Yen in the beginning. It can find places where other currencies/financial institutions wouldn’t be able to penetrate (because of infrastructure costs, customer acquisition, low profitability, you name it) and provide the avenue for conducting transactions in a safe, fast, cheap manner. In short it makes the whole pie bigger.
After reaching a certain adoption threshold, it might compete with the currencies of the world, but then again even if it takes 20% from forex. it still going to be worth a lot of money. Why? Because of its limited, 45B supply.
Here is how numbers stack up:
2013 Forex volume: USD1.355 quadrillion (this is the amount of transactions ALL the fiat currencies support)
US portion of this volume: USD1.150 quadrillion
M2: 12 trillion
Money Velocity: 1.150 quadrillion/12 trillion=96
Now, assuming the same money velocity, what level of transactions could ADA support with 45B supply at the price of $120/ADA? The answer is: roughly USD517 trillion–not at all outside the realm of real possibility in my books.
It is not yet clear what the extent of encroachment of ADA onto fiat currency will be compared to the organic growth of transactions it will generate on its own, but given how cheap it would be to provide financial infrastructure to swaths of underserved populations I think we should be in a good place soon.
I agree. I think the Cardano platform could serve as a universal layer that would host any number of entire economies thereby engulfing their content, their creativity and their ability to generate economic value. The platform could have the widest use case imaginable. It doesn’t have to be hostage to a dozen use cases. I am calling ADA a currency for the purpose of convenience, but it is actually something entirely new. It can represent a stake in the system, it can be used as a currency or fuel complex computations on Cardano’s CL. Its uses aren’t confined by a single application, which is why it is extremely powerful. With sidechains and RINA I can see the path of how Cardano could achieve global acceptance.
I think BTC has played its role in galvanizing a movement that can’t be stopped. The genie is out. I don’t think it is a Ponzi scheme, but a proof-of-concept for new money. It’s future is unknown. It may transform itself to something more useful or stay the same. It doesn’t matter, really. Charles won’t gain anything by denouncing it.
BTC might fail as you pointed out, but by the time it happens I think we will have some pretty awesome alternatives that its failure won’t matter. Crypto moves fast and some day BTC and ETH will become relics of the past that people will collect like Coca-Cola signs.
Our day-to-day job is to explain blockchains, cryptocurrencies, smart contracts, etc. to non-technical people. Adoption will be the inevitable result. More investments, increasing prices, etc.
Do not be shy! Use any channel you have to even contact governmental and institutional representatives! (It might be a rumour, but even governments consist of rational humans - except Ger-Money unfortunately!)
Not just about Cardano and ADA. About the technology in general. It is time to “spread the word”!
So far all I can see is a relentless slide followed by stagnation. Marketing from Cardano is bad so adoption will suffer. You cannot dominate market adoption by “quality” alone. We all know examples of products that came to dominate markets due to marketing and adoption tactics alone (Apple; VHS video systems etc).
When are these guys going to wake up from their IT mindsets and make this coin grreat???
Have to admit, I have often thought about how ground breaking a partnership would be between Cardano and Tesla/SpaceX. Protocols, currency, satellites (internet) and power supply. Just imagine what that could do for developing countries…
That sounds like a great idea. Unleashing liquidity and innovation without Wall Street dictating your every move. Elon Musk would love it! Cardano is the only platform that plays nice with incumbents and has avenues of integrating old Economic powers with the new economic reality powered by crypto.
I think there is wisdom in what they are doing with the marketing. It’s probable that some very high profile projects are going to crash and burn and attract regulators and lawsuits. Cardano does not want to be seen as a hype coin and be in that mess. The space is still VERY immature. Plenty of time left for Lambos my friends.