Continuing the discussion from Cardano’s price by 2022: $120:
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120 USD/ADA price in 2022 is absolutely ridiculous, crazy & impossible 
For Cardano to get to 1 trillion or even 100b you need mass global adoption (100s of ventures, Use Cases, 10-100+ million Users) in terms of real value, services & use cases running on top of the Cardano Blockchain, which won´t happen overnight.
IMO 1-2 USD might be realistic in 2022 if we get positive regulatory climate and able to attract enough developers to the platform (plan is to train 10.000 Plutus developers this year).
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I think you missed the point of the post. Price is a secondary to Cardano’s potential, which I outline in the post.
People are myopic in that they can’t see beyond what exists in the financial system. I tried to show what Cardano could capture beyond that, demonstrating it with numbers.
Does it seem a bit wild? Yes! especially if you look at the current price, but that’s the thing with fundamentals. They don’t care about the price.
As long as the vision and strategy of Cardano are followed it will create enormous value. With a fixed supply that will put pressure on the price…
I think $1-2 is too pessimistic…
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I see a perfect storm brewing, which includes a global fiat economic meltdown.
When the debt birds come home to roost, inflation is going to go nuts and this new asset class - the first one in hundreds of years - will go from 130 bln to tens of trillions.
I’m thinking $5.00 EOY 2020, $10.00 EOY 2022, $35.00 EOY 2025.
By 2022 I’ll be off the grid and completely self sufficient. Just in time to ride out the end of the world.
Don´t forget competition, there are quite a few other projects out there (Polkadot, Ethereum 2.0, Algorand and maybe even Hashgraph, etc.) which Cardano will have to compete against and share the market with. Some of these projects have magnitudes more monetary resources, so it will be a hard & fierce competition, though Cardano has the advantage of being the best developped one, a truly state-of-the-art product and perhaps be able to claim the early market entry of 3rd gen Blockhain platforms. And we have Charles as well an exceptional leader & creative futurist dreamer (who can make his dreams come true!) being a must to build a disruptive global product & brand.
Also note that fundemental changes are threatening the status quo, and the ones in position (the global policy makers who also influence regulators, mainstream media and some tech giants) will protect it and fight against any change not in their interest. Such fights can take a while before innovation wins. It does eventually always win, the question is the time.
Regulations are another factor, and the regulatory climate is not the best at the moment. The SEC is not much supportive with the Bitcoin ETFs, though on the state level we see some nice developments (Wyoming´s Cryptocurrency Regulation). IMF, in particular Mrs. Legarde is pushing Central Banks to isssue their own digital crypto, the CBDCs, which would also allow for building cheap financial services upon to bank the 3 billion unbanked people. Until there is no safe, clear & stable regulation you will not have the appropriate financial products developped and see massive institutional investment come to the crypto market. This “smart money” will find it´s way to ADA, once it is allowed to enter the market.
I am not so much certain whether ADA will fulfill the role of being a global currency or rather being the deflationary fuel for a global next gen financial platform. This does have quite an impact on its valuation. It all depends on how to deal with the price volatility or maybe a stable coin on top of Cardano is a better choice to serve as a means of a token participating in value store & exchange.
Finally about the timeline, we need to have Cardano Roadmap delivered before major ventures, startups, projects might move to the Platform. So if roadmap is delivered in 2020, let´s say you have 1 year of “marketing, evangelism & education” to raise further awareness and attract attention, then 2021 we see some higher uptake in projects coming to build on Cardano, they will also take a few years (2-3) to develop, release and gain adoption. (Note that the learning curve to Functional Programming & Plutus is not easy and takes time for the mass Java, JavaScript, Solidity, C/C++ developers.)
Then Cardano will need to get smart & lucky with making the right partnerships. For instance in terms of the Africa adoption strategy, have the right infrastructure partners, have stable Government partners & agreements, have reliable local partners. Emurgo will have to grow and become as successful & great as IOHK is today by establishing the right partnerships (www.y2x.io looks like a promising start). But also things like being integrated into the default Samsung Galaxy S/Note Android crypto wallet.
While I agree with you that Cardano has a very good potential to be “the-go-to” 3rd gen Blockchain Platform, the timeline is way too ambitious IMO for assuming such scale of mass adoption to take place that would allow for this price level.
Personally if we reach 1-2 USD in 2022 I would see this as a tremendous success, as it would mean not only speculative value (as in early Jan 2018), but tangible utility value has pushed ADA into this price level and marketcap, which shows potential for further growth. This pice would also be a likely indication that ADA has split / detached itself from BTC.
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at least 5 USD in 2022…! if we had 1.33 USD with no product you estimate 1-2 USD with a finished product lol. this would be a complete failure if it was to be true
the next bull run in crypto will max out at 8 to 10 trillion in 2021 , if Cardano can replace bitcoin and go no 1 then 120 dollars is realistic as the top crypto could have a 3 trillion value max
120 USD/ADA actually means 1 ADA = 0,0083 USD . Yeah it’s absolutelly ridiculous, crazy & impossible :). But 120 ADA/USD looks a bit crazy too …
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1 Ada = 5 Usd 2022 is quite realistic if Cardano continues on its path - succesful Shelley and after that keeping on the roadmap and at the same time Emurgo keeps partnering Y2X -level partnerships (which was absolutely great!).
For me it is quite clear that the Cardano/Ada will be the winner. No other coin does not deliver even close the qualities Cardano does. And most importantly, Sidechains together with the only peer revied ecosystems quarantee to the Adaholder that:
A) Cardano will be the Etherium -killer and the next ICO -wave will happen with the help of Emurgo in Cardano enviroment
B) What ever token/coin will be the google/amazon of cryptos, it will live in sidechain of Cardano ecosystem and all these brilliant coins will be chainced against Ada and the transactioncosts will also be payed in Adas.
C) On the top, Ada might get to the position USD is today amongst fiat -currencys.
I think todays value for Ada could be aroud 0,5 Usd if altcoins would not be in affiliation with BTC-price.
Ps. Sorry my english, I know it is not fluent but I hope you get the message:)
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Can u explain further on, ‘‘no other coin does not deliver even close the qualities Cardona does’’. Since its Open source project, ever other coin project can copy and see how the platform is builded? Or it is in this case not possible?
Well they can copy it but first Cardano has to build it. It’s not only about the code, but also about SL/CL architecture, about the use of formal methods and about the peer review process.
Last but not least a copied code isn’t a guarantee of sucess as evidenced by many copies of bitcoin. You need people to maintain the code and fix problems. With Haskell you’d have to find the developers who would do it for you. For all those reasons Cardano has a natural moat against the competition and absolute first mover advantage… as long as they keep up their promise and momentum.
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That’s true. I’m just worred the banking cast will realize what is happening and proceed to release their own crypto project based on the architecture of one of the best prospects. They have the funds and most importantly they have the means of implementing it globally.
Corporates are by far the greatest risk. Corporations control the flow of information, which is more important in crypto than copycats.
I cannot emphasize the importance of adoption enough. Only a dedicated healthy community in this space would protect an open project like Cardano against what might follow in the form of “negative advertisement” from incumbents.
I am hopeful that it will survive as none of that worked with bitcoin.
As for banking cast replicating the platform: it won’t work as they can’t replicate open decentralization without shooting themselves in the foot.
It would be the worst idea since Microsoft zune!
As for banking cast replicating the platform: it won’t work as they can’t replicate open decentralization without shooting themselves in the foot.
The problem is I don’t think most of the population cares much about decentralization. A lot of people from crypto sphere invested in XRP and I’d bet average joe doesn’t even know what “decentralization” means. They probably only care if the money is right and proceed to live their day to day life.
I believe Cardano will succeed and become one of the top currencies in the world. I’m not certain about the scale of that success though.
Even if you are right with regards to decentralization, I doubt banks could compete with cryto on costs. Bitcoin basically funds itself, so will Cardano. With banking systems the average consumer will have to foot the bill, which won’t be cheap.
Consumers can comparison shop and make their choices. There is an inherent value in placing a part of your funds in an alternative financial system that isn’t subject to potentially harmful policies.
The scale of Cardano’s sucess is very much an open issue and largely depends on those who see the value in it. Community would play a crucial role in hashing those out for the rest.
I sure hope you’re right.
I think one of the most important aspects of decentralization is that it helps guarantee trust in the blockchain by preventing a 51% attack. Without a guarantee of trust a blockchain is no better than any other database. The average person may not understand this but entities that build Daps do.
We have to understand that all altcoins are pegged to BTC … BTC goes up … they all go up …BTC goes down … they aall go down with it … So if BTC were to go up twice the ATH it had last time … then i see ADA going to above 5usd …
The usd value ADA can reach in a few years will depend on not only ADA adaption but strongly on the behaviour of BTC as well … we cannot deny this fact …
BTC goes up … ADA goes up … BTC goes down …ADA goes down with it no matter how much mass adaption there is in the ADA ecosystem … … that is just it …
For now that is… Eventually ADA and other alt-coins will decouple from BTC.
For that to happen we need (way) more fiat pairs though.