How long until remaining ADA gets distributed?

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Total ADA that will ever exist is 45,000,000,000 (100%). Distributed so far is 31,112,484,646 (69%) and remaining 13,887,515,354 (31%) is to be distributed as rewards through minting (see monetary policy).

According to information from IOHK (for example from the Cardano Development Update and AMA: Shelley Testnet Special) the reward will be diminishing and will start in the upper spectrum of 3 - 12% interval.

This seems quite a lot to me as if the reward would be 10% than this means the reward pool will last less than 4.4 years. This means it will likely diminish fast. Maybe it will also depend on the amount of transactions because fees can outweight less reward.

I’m really curious to see the incentives parameters and we have just couple of weeks until we’ll learn the initial model parametrization.

My guess is rewards will diminish exponentially similarly to bitcoin. I would say the pool will last at least 10 years, more likely 20 years and less likely 30 years. What are your thoughts? :grinning:

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i roughly counted under 5% with 100% participation and said as much on a recent thread

but yes, in the developer status video eser suggested in the higher part of that 3 - 12% range

logically the rewards will start off high and then diminish with time since security early on is of paramount importance, once stake pools establish themselves and we reached an adequate number of operators i think we’ll see rewards start to decline

a year after shelley goes live then goguen will start to gain traction with the development community, transaction fees start playing a larger role to offset the decline in rewards

i am just speculating but to me this seems like a logical approach, i dont think we’ll see staking rewards at +10% for any sustained period of time, it would simply be unsustainable with the 10 year plan as outlined: https://staking.cardano.org/en/

in truth that plan will probably have to change, even with a low staking participate rate we’ll burn through the first years allocation of 700m within 6 months and considering how accessible staking is i’d be surprised if staking participation is low, i doubt it’ll get below 60%

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Dont forget transaction cost are added back to be given as rewards as well.

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The link was useful, thanks.

I have also found a paper Reward Sharing Schemes for Stake Pools, but I don’t have time to go through it.

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I would be interested to see what affect costs will have, i.e. for operating smart contracts and stake pools. Fees/rewards need to translate into enough to cover costs (in the currency they are incurred). The equivalent of these in Ethereum and Bitcoin influence the price of those cryptos.

So Cardano rewards may come down over time, but the price of ADA in USD may increase to compensate.