How much ADA stake do you need to be likely to make a block?
Here is my calculation for epoch 210 with stake pools making 10% of blocks and current total stake of 6.88b ADA.
1 slot/sec * 60 sec/min * 60 min/hr * 24 hr/day * 5 day/epoch = 432,000 slot/epoch
432,000 slot/epoch * .05 block/slot = 21,600 block/epoch
21,600 block/epoch * .1 spo block/block = 2,160 spo block/epoch
6,880,000,000 ADA / 2,160 spo block/epoch = 3,185,185 ADA/spo block/epoch
So in epoch 210, you need 3.2m ADA stake to be likely to make a block.
By the time decentralization reaches 100% and assuming 20b ADA total stake, you will only need 925k ADA.
I know it’s actually calculated based on the stake snapshot at the previous epoch boundary which is less than 6.88b.
Otherwise, let me know if there is something wrong with how I calculated this.