How many ADA shall I gather in total to mint 1 block/month in my stake pool? 10k or 100k ADA?
If my stake pool can mint 1 block, how high is the reward in ADA?
To mint one block per epoch you’ll need …
TotalStake / BlocksPerEpoch => ActiveStakePerBlock
22.85b / 21600 => 1,058m
An epoch has 5 days, so you’ll need 1/6 of that. i.e. 176k. Whether it is profitable to run a stake pool is explored here in greater detail.
Cost per block is a factor, not only for the SPO but for the delegator too. In case you’re not decided and also consider delegating, it may be a good idea to look for a pool with solid tech skills and low effective cost.
For a conservative estimate you may assume a reward of 700 ADA per block and 4.5% return per year. Both figures are actually slightly higher but trending down because the TotalStake number mentioned by @tomdx goes up as more ADA comes into circulation and is staked over time.
This gives around of 700 / 0.045 = ~15’556 ADA to mint a block per year or ~186’667 ADA for a Block per month.
As I mentioned elsewhere on this forum, even if you solo-stake, the actual profit expectation (and likelihood to mint blocks) can be much higher if your pool participates in one of the existing delegation programs.
Thanks Thomas for the formula and the link. Somehow, I still don’t understand 100%. I would like to ask some questions:
- How did you come with the number 22.85 or 22.75 billion for the total stake? Does it refer to the circulating supply? If I check the total circulation supply, I found 31.95b ADA.
- Based on the theory on this video https://youtu.be/zJUJG6V0Y1o?t=594, I thought the number of active stake ADA are the lottery ticket. If so, the we shall have a probabilistic formula instead of a fix formula.
- from the thread with your link you wrote a formula
73 * YourStake / TotalStake * SlotsPerEpoch => AnualBlocks. Where did 73 come from? - Does the block per epoch increase over the time?
How can I participate in the existing delegation programs?
#1 Total Stake is from here. This is different from Total Supply, because not every ADA is staked.
#2 Yes we are talking average probability. There are 22.8bn tickets of which 176k need to be yours in order to mint one block p.m. (on average). An excellent reward calculator is here.
#3 There are 365 / 5 => 73 epochs per year
#4 If you mean the chance to win a block: its always determined by Cardano Reward Formula
If you mean the block reward: It’s approx the same every epoch (i.e. 15.67m). In future there may be many more Tx, from which the pool will get the fees (I believe)
If you don’t mint a block in a given epoch, your chances to win one in next epoch will be slightly less because all the rewards (from which you got none) will be added to the total stake.