Is Cardano price priced in for Vasili HardFork?

Hi

Do you guys think cardano will spike after news or the price is already priced in for the hardfork?

Thanks

I don’t think things happening technologically are that important for the price at all.

It just follows the Bitcoin price, which in turn more or less follows tech stocks.

3 Likes

I’ll tell you what is not priced in:
The realisation that Ethereum’s move to POS will:

  • Not result in cheaper layer 1 fees
  • Not fix the unfair charging for failed transactions
  • Not improve the security of Ethereum smart contracts
  • Not meaningfully increase Ethereum’s base throughput
  • Not enable unstaking of staked Eth
  • Not provide risk free Eth staking yield
  • Not enable Eth in smart contracts to earn staking yield
  • May actually increase Ethereum MEV and front-running

Some of these won’t be priced in until:

  • Innocent Ethereum stakers losing Eth for accidental stake pool malconfiguration
  • People notice that real yields on Cardano seem generally higher
  • People notice that there seems to be less “front running” on Cardano
  • People notice that there seems to be less exploits on Cardano

Maybe the coming regulation of stable coins will wake people up to the true value of real decentralisation and inclusive accountability?

Another thing I find quite interesting is that it will be more expensive to short Ada than it will be to short Bitcoin.

1 Like

yes, people as usual fanatics for eth as new improvements and ETH will be always behind ADA.

“Another thing I find quite interesting is that it will be more expensive to short Ada than it will be to short Bitcoin.” are you talking about DJED?

1 Like

… but remember what happened with sheley and goguen, how price reacted.

Maybe it was because there were different investors mood and alot enthusiasm, which is the only reason ada was going up.

otherwise, we saw nice up with sundeaswap too, when price of btc was going down, it was nice up against btc and other crypto and than later that ada return back to previouse low, nice specualation, is’t?

1 Like

Not specifically.

In order to short, you need to borrow the asset first. What will it cost to borrow Ada when everyone knows that you automatically earn staking rewards in Ada?

The cost to borrow Ada will necessarily be higher than staking rewards. Staking rewards will be viewed as the risk free rate. The cost to borrow Ada will be equal to any risk premium added on top of the risk free rate.

Bitcoin does not earn any staking rewards. Bitcoin does not have a built-in risk free rate. Therefore the cost to borrow Bitcoin will equal only the risk premium.

The differential between borrowing costs for Ada vs Bitcoin will always be this “risk free” rate generated by Ada staking rewards. Therefore it will be more expensive to short Ada.

At 4-5% per year this differential will add up quickly due to the wonder of compound interest.


In regard to Djed: Imagine if Djed is successful as a truly decentralised stable coin. What competitors will it have?

DAI is not properly decentralised since a lot of its asset backing comes from centralised tokens. What other competitors are there in the truly decentralised stable coin race?

How much demand will there be for a truly decentralised stable coin? Maybe we will find out soon with the coming regulation of the centralised stable coins?

What do you think the market cap of Djed could be? The Ada backing will need to be 5 times larger than the amount of Djed in circulation. Furthermore, not all Ada will be locked in the Djed contract.

So what does this mean for the market cap of Ada?

ada is under same hood as all crypto in the macro ecosystem and what ever tech. advantage it will has, DXY will decide the partern. Crypto is not uncorrelated asset, that is why I disapointed in last few months.

Ada will be among “alfa” performances when bull market begins, because of tech. improvement, scalability, etc, you mentioned. I think ada will drop to 10 cents this year.

Can’t see that happening, Ada going down to 10 cents. Through all the bad news and all the low lows, it is lowest I seen as a 39 cents. Keep in mind that between 75 to 80% of it is staked by the community and whales. And they haven’t budged yet. There has to be a true catastrophe for it to go down to $0.10. In the last week and a half Whales picked up $135 million of it. That should give you a sign.

All people were laughing at me when I sold all my ada at 1 euro, than rised to 1.5 euros and I said that ada will go down at least to 50 cents.

It is too risky to hold crypto or stock only because new war tension of Taiwan and China and other marco things. It can happen any moment. Whales will lose their millions or will pull out earlier. Staking ada does not means you are not willing to sell…

On top of that autumn and winter is comming, new covid sh*t will start

The thing I would worry about if I was short Ada is that this could literally turn on a dime.

There is so much suppression of Cardano and ignorance to its technology in the rest of the crypto market. There are a lot of aligned VC interests that are opposed to Cardano. For example, I have emailed FTX for over 2 years requesting they list Ada and they still won’t. Also, there is so much miss-allocated capital invested in things like Dogecoin, XRP, Shiba, etc. Seriously, what real world problems are these blockchains/tokens going to solve? XRP going to be used by banks - yeah right, good luck with that. And don’t get me started on apecoin.

The thing I worry about is that one day we will wake up and someone like Michael Saylor will have had an epiphany and realised that Cardano has some really good technology. Moreover, that Cardano has the same store of value characterists as Bitcoin, is equally or more secure, has secure smart contracts, and has a risk free rate of return. These people are not dummies, they will recognise the better technology when it is deployed. Even if Michael Saylor doesn’t wake up, eventually the technology will shine through to others. As they say, you can hold a ball underwater for a while but it will fly upwards when it can’t be suppressed any longer.

1 Like

I hate this suppression and ignorace too, but I well anticipated it in a past, when logic and emotions collide you must choose logic side, it can be very painful emotionaly.

in 2018 I invested heavily in cardano, because I saw clear roadmap and I saw that what they are trying to do is not possible not to succeed.

I sold all my ada and I am calm than ever before since 2020. CPI positive is not enough to market to get back to bulls. My plan is to see current stock market collapse and only than buy ada. Wars and tensions must over, covid shit must over, central bank must be destroyed - that are 3 main conditions for me to back. My main mistake was to listen those billionaires whose said that btc is uncoralated asset …

As history proof during these globals events I mentioned best place to have money is in cash or in a gold or silver, even cash with inflation is better than in crypto or stock at the moment, because so many fears and uncertainty in a market. When you have a problem for you, you don’t think about how to improve yourself, you are thinking how to fix problems, this is what businesses situation is right now and why cryptos are less important to them and this is why crypto will be only good when businesses doing well

TadCryp, that’s quite the essay. Don’t get your undies in a bundle, just wait until after hard fork goes live and all these apps work.