POLL: February High?


#21

Fair enough, I thought you were referring to my comment.

Just based on the general market sentiment you can see that people are still way too bullish on crypto. We see a 300 dollar pump and put in another lower high, just as we have been for the past year, and all you see on twitter, reddit, youtube and even trading view is people saying that the bottom is in and talking targets into the 4k’s again. I can understand buying for a long term investment. However when looking at this from a trading perspective, as this is the trading section, I think a big opportunity wil be missed by those that have exhausted their funds and not timed the market well.

I do think we can see decent numbers before we reach new lows if we manage to have another run. However this is looking less and less likely. Im being pretty optimistic in a bottom target of mid 2k’s as this could go considerably lower.


#22

We have hit another milestone in predictions today–0.045 ADA/USDT. It looks the majority predicts the price to reach 0.048 in February, based on the sample of 55 votes so far.

Updated stats:

:x: 0.036 USD
:x: 0.040 USD
:x: 0.042 USD
:checkered_flag: .045 USD (top contender)
:white_check_mark: .048 USD (most voted option)
:white_check_mark: .050 USD
:white_check_mark: .055 USD
:white_check_mark: .060 USD


#23

Didn’t think we’d get there in one day, but here we are–at 0.048+.

:x: 0.036 USD
:x: 0.040 USD
:x: 0.042 USD
:x: 0.045 USD
–this is a whopping 47% of all who voted so far.

:checkered_flag: .048 USD (top contender/most voted)
:white_check_mark: .050 USD
:white_check_mark: .055 USD (second most voted)
:white_check_mark: .060 USD

This is not financial advice, just a fun way to track the price, comparing it with peoples’ expectations. Thank you all for voting btw.


#24

Time for another update. Earlier we reached 0.05… what’s next?

:x: 0.036 USD
:x: 0.040 USD
:x: 0.042 USD
:x: 0.045 USD
:x: 0.048 USD

:checkered_flag: .050
:white_check_mark: .055 USD
:white_check_mark: .060 USD


#25

Up 0.08 $ :подмигивание:


#26

The top results are looking pretty accurate so far, but we still have 4 days left in February.


#27

I was just blown away by the percentage of people from the forum (supporters?) who got it wrong, including me!

Granted we were looking for just one data point, still surprised how the price shot through some optimistic levels.

We are back again at 0.043 but I don’t think this will last long…

A couple of days makes a lot of difference in crypto. Wild price swings!


#28

Told you it’s like predicting the weather. :wink:

I often snort at all those overly technical market analysis with hundreds of lines and statistic indicators. They are as good as anyones guess.


#29

clearly you have no understanding of technical analysis…


#30

:slight_smile: Firm statement.


#31

Clearly you do. Tell me the price for next month then.


#32

Well that isnt what technical analysis is. Nobody can predict the future, but it does give a very good sense of direction and targets when properly used.

Currently with btc we are sitting above the monthly 55 ema at 3680 ish, having previously closed below. This is a key level. A monthly close above this is likely to mean more trending in higher ranges, probably mid to upper 4k’s. A close below will only intensify selling. We also have a monthly bear cross around the corner.

Really so far in this rally nothing has changed, we were refected by key resistance areas and the w200ema. So far all that has happened is we have bounced between the weekly 200 ema and sma since dropping. A break above or below one of these will show the next direction.


#33

Thank you for wonderfully proving my point.


#34

well your point stated that it is as good as anyones guess and that it was like predicting the weather, which it isnt. Guess work is a losing strategy. Many top traders have a win rate in the 90% range from good use of technical analysis.


#35

There you go.

I have a friend who is a successful forex trader. I know how it works. It’s exactly like predicting the weather - you have certain data that can be used to derive trends and estimate future outcomes. It can only increase your chances to make a correct decision, not predict the future. I didn’t state I laugh at technical analysis I merely stated the ones I often see on YT are as good as anyones guess, hundreds of lines and indexes don’t make it valid. Besides crypto is so volatile and susceptible to sudden changes influenced by various factors that making any future estimations is close to impossible.


#36

In the words of Muhammad Ali: “Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face.”

I think of that every time there is a big upward spike or a huge downward sell-off.

No one seems to see them coming… it is after the fact that people look at charts and say, sure it was self-evident, because [place your technical indicators here].

Maybe I don’t get it, maybe there is some science to it, but if this stuff consistently worked, the TA traders would be treated like gods on Wall Street.

Instead we have plain old Warren Buffetts [who would take metro to work] who have the highest consistent returns.

Forex is hard though because you are trading pairs of intrinsically worthless pieces of paper. The only reason they have demand is because sovereigns demand their acceptance from the economic agents generating value within their borders.

Predicting that demand is hard. Crypto is even harder as you don’t know what actually drives the demand. In the ideal world it should be the expected future value of tokens backed by adoption, backed by actual economy.

Of all the assets that trade in crypto, platforms have a shot at that. Others (those who aim to replace money) are in for an uphil battle with powerful sovereigns.


#37

Fair enough man, i miss interpreted your post. I trade forex aswell with reasonable success. Got a 61% win rate currently which isnt amazing but I am happy with it! Trading is all risk management, as long as the setups are decent and good rm is applied money is there to be made.
In terms of trading crypto moving averages and fibs are definately the areas to concentrate on as the major algos and bots go off these. Which pretty much control the market. People that try and apply other ta methods, like the majority of people you see on youtube and trading viiew trying to pattern trade, end up getting burnt. otc markets are also a good indicator, gbtc has been leading btc all year and helped call the last drop.