POLL: How High Will ADA/USD Go In January 2019?

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Look for the real poll below. This one is invalid. I can’t change it so created another one below.

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I am testing this notion of “wisdom of crowds here.

One vote per person please.

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Yahoo! Im in the majority so far :slight_smile: Cant tell you what i picked…you will have to make your choice first and find out.

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That’s how it’s supposed to work out: your choice should not be contaminated by your prior knowledge of the poll numbers.

Statistically, the highest price would be the weighted average of all prices that people picked.

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2.32-2.66 best guess as of today…oh didn’t read the title…this is annual ATH end of year, not End of January.

Would you bet 50ADA to put money where your mouth is?

Pick one number. If the price goes down to that level or below and never crosses above it, you win.

If we enter January at a higher price, you lose. The loser donates 50ADA to The Cardano Effect.

Oh and the poll will close on December 31st upon which I will calculate the average high price and post it here.

If you can’t find your price in the poll, post your own in the comments in 0.xxx format.

If we get enough votes, we should be pretty close to that average number in January.

Sorry guys please vote again. I screwed up.

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Changed the poll to a single choice type. This is the last version.

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Maybe I would.

If you do it today and give a price within the range you gave, I will take the other side of the bet. Make it interesting!

My price prediction is end of year not Jan. Sorry. Didn’t read the title. That would’ve been an easy win for you! Ha!

lol. Ok…

I will bet that we won’t hit the low of 2.32c by the end of this year. You win if we reach 2.32C or go lower between now and December 31st 23.59. The loser donates 50ADA to The Cardano Effect. Deal?

OR:

If you bet ADA will not go higher than 2.32c for the entire 2019 (this is how the high price estimates work), I can take you up on that too. Remember: you will lose the moment the price is above your number.

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Uh no. That’s a dumb wager. If I’m giving a point of 2.32 which is markedly higher that any ATH, then I should benefit for any upward number. The advantage is to you as the ATH + 10-20% would be sensible guidance.

And why the Cardano Effect? I’d rather have it to myself personally. Who knows if you have an interest in the Cardano Effect. I know I do not. You could be Philipa for all I know.

Lastly, the pricing I’m guessing is well more than 10x current price. You’re looking to trap a fool which I’m not. If you’d like to make a friendly wager, I’d be interested at quarterly end of possibly. I have too many models that present different prices from 1.01 which makes no sense to me because much is left out, intentionally. A second at 1.78 which makes sense but wasn’t consistent over 2018, a few others in the same area. And a couple that sit at the high end likevthe 2.32 value which is from the most consistent model and includes Coinbase inclusion, regulation, full dectealization, and ledger support as minimum event requirement along with positive sentiment, which takes a lot of time to score and then to create metrics for use.

To wager against you for events that have not yet occurred and are only in discussion, on a roadmap or other would be throwing money out the window. I don’t do that. What I do is commit based on my research.

Let me think of a sensible wager if you’re serious.

haha. You got me! For 50ADA (or $2.25) I would definitely go and create a whole new identity and self-deal. But seriously…

This is a fun wager obviously. I am not in it for money. But I like the Cardano Effect and want to support them however small the amount. I was assuming (mistakenly) you had the same views as a part of community. You can keep the money if that’s more important to you.

I realize i misread your message. It seems your high is $2.23-$2.66. I thought you meant 2.23 cents, which prompted me to offer you a wager. It was a no-brainer you’d lose if you thought January high or 2019 high would be 2.23 cents.

Now about your predictions: I am open to do a fair wager only if I know what your best number is and if my number diverges significantly from yours. Give me your best guess for Q1 2019 and I will see if its worth it.

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Q1 2019 .21 - .23 is the model I’m favoring without full decentralization and other factors. We know that’s not going to happen. Something big will occur in Q1.With full Shelley, looks like .42 but so much to happen right. If regulation then a couple of points. If Shelley is completed and full decentralization then one of the main and likely last criteria/hurdle for Coinbase would be met and that would be big. That’s easy 10 points in my model. If regulation and markets open then it’s going to moon a bit.

Let me take some time to think a decent price point.

Yea only two bucks. True. I have other reasons outside of that.

We need more votes here before the poll closes.

Interesting to see where people are falling on this, thanks for putting it up.

Thanks. Looks like we have a minimum number of votes to get some meaningful info out of this poll.

I want to put this up every month to see how things are expected to shape up.

Would be good to automate the process.

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If you want to make your final choice on Q1 2019 max price prediction, you should give a number on or before December 31st. Once we enter Q1, your predictions will be “contaminated” by the info that’s pertinent to that time period.

Let’s keep it clean shall we?