We just witnessed "mania" on a small level


#1

I think what we just saw this pas week in the crypto space was what is known as mania. Masses with fear of missing out, or FOMO, making a rush to buy and long time holders taking profit, all driving it.

I generally look at many news sources of varying biases and you could not find one that wasn’t mentioning Bitcoin and more importantly its price. In just a few short days, roughly half the value of BTC came flooding into the market and that money is now gone. That’s 1/4 (again, roughly) of the entire crypto market came in and out in a few days!

The good news to take away is that it provides ample reasoning to why and how we are not in a bubble. However, it should give everyone a good indication of what mania and in turn a bubble will someday look like.

What do you think?


#2

Internet was in a bubble, but came out strong. Blockchain and some cryptocurrencies will suvive. But only the ones that have real use cases and contribution to the future. I think Cardano is one of them. Maybe even the best one. And also why I don’t hold any bitcoin… It isn’t a real currency anymore and is outdated IMO.


#3

Money comes money goes.

Bitcoin is a sorry state of affairs, massive transaction fees and slow confirmations, impractical for daily commerce unless it’s large purchase transfers of wealth or off-chain speculation (i.e. within an exchange aggregating balances). All the proposals for improvement such as Lightning network seems to be progressing like a JavaCommunityProcess for language enhancement - i.e. unbearably slow, and looking at BCH and BCG - who knows if it will ever happen.

Equally, most of people investing/invested in crypto couldnt care weather they were trading cat turd or thin air, it’s all either one of two things

  1. Call it scam, spread FUD, kill people’s Character - so they pump their favourite coin, or manipulative as in believing they can sink the price to buy in, or maybe just plain trolling
  2. Stupid youtube and blog celebrities, with phrases like ‘to the moon’, about to bubble, about to break through, ‘buy low sell high peace man’, and all that shit

Cardano for me will be a success if it gains traction as a usable currency and as a personal benchmark if I can convince my local bar and my local coffee shop to accept Cardano, which would imply tiny transaction fees, something the staff can do on their smart phone, and something where the person doesn’t have to sit around for several minutes, and that others than me would use it.

Early days, but this is most promising “bet”, weather you buy in at 2c or 14c I don’t really think matters, buying into the idea and community and eventually the commerce is better than some store on bittrex etc…


#4

I believe we are in a precursor “boom” that is merely preceding the actual boom. The proper boom, which will make a lot more people wealthy and provide new incomes is yet to come. The crypto “boom” should not be seen as being this thing that early investors use as a way of making all of this easy money in terms of how early and how cheap they bought into the coin.

Those who think they’ve “missed out” are mistaken by a long shot. This is like saying that the only people who ever benefited financially and prospered from the success of Apple or Amazon were the early investor and shareholder class. This is incorrect. More money and opportunity actually gets made in developing innovative new software and hardware applications that leverage off the product, running and teaching classes on how to use the product, running a tech support business for the product etc etc.

The concept of “getting in early” and FOMO should be about getting in early and learning the new technical, marketing and business skillsets that our society will soon be needing in big demand over the coming years. Now is the time to get in early.

This is a much more difficult mindset and one that takes a lot of work. But this is the mindset that will make a many more people wealthy in the future and create a sustainable income for a lot of people.


#5

You may be right. There are a few different ways you could take the argument and each are applicable on where you place the currencies on the level of dotcom or housing booms/bubbles.

I can see the merits of both, however I can’t say where we are in this space. Given all the tech that is yet to come that looks very promising in what problems it is attempting to solve, I’m leaning towards yours. However who or what is to say that coins and a coin market, especially this high in volume and market cap is even needed to advance that tech?


#6

Agreed completely @Giuliano … I tried describing to a friend about investing in cardano , as investing in any venture , and he still had difficulty with no economic background …

Crypto is a bubble , Bitcoin is in a bubble , there is no bubble, all are false statements , because as prominent bankers and economists observe , “bubbleness” is an attribute of an asset , in terms of how much of that assets value is manipulated by / derived from market trading participants , all assets have “bubble” to the extent they are valued for hypothetical future gain versus known and predicted gain …

Is the “blockchain technology” worth 500$bn ? Of course it is worth much more to society , how much are computers and internet and smart contracts all worth put together ?? A lot of trillions … right now, there is a lot of misplaced allocation as investors say, or mispricing of assets … Bitcoin has practically 0 use-case versus what its market value would have you believe , but blockchains are not even TOUCHING on the value that they are owed … not for years to come … so all these investors come in and see #1 a bubble worth trading on (easy trading prodits) , and simultaneously , undervalued assets (Ada) … but the average mom and pop isn’t doing value predicting with regard to the blockchain or even with regard to their coin … btc should not merit any significant worth over that of Visa , perhaps even way less… but simultaneously , blockchains will undoubtedly play a many trillion $ role in our future economy … very few people seem to be able to put these things together , but , thankfully , the “invisible hand” will, over time . Because cardano offers stake incentives , it inherently provides value purely to the behalf of owners , just like any real currency does in the form of their national bond coupon rate. Viewed from this sense , Bitcoin is a “scam” indeed …

Any investor should carefully appraise future value potential , this appraisal will provide them with the necessary information to decide if the asset is undervalued or overvalued by the market .

I think cardanos functional potential value is in the trillions of USD , we will see if the market agrees and if competitors agree … but clearly anyone with a good grasp on technology can see blockchains are awesome new tools that will greatly grow global productivity - they are a technological revolution , like the internet or the PC. So multiple contrary cases exist , is it possible to overestimate the blockchains value to society ?? Likely not… but have people over bet/over valued Bitcoin ? Yes, because it was the first and it is easy when everyone in the world is inclined to seek exponential growth , they know it is here in the form of the internet , pre singularity era, but they misplace credence in their overeagerness , and here we are now :slight_smile: