Based on your model what will be the main factors influencing a downturn to .04-.05?
Thanks
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Right now, it looks like most trading (for BTC) is from HF bot action. This coupled with the appearance that there is no significant new capital coming into the market results in the sideways and mega candle action we’re seeing. I believe that upward trajectory will occur when 3 things occur.
- Cardano ADA is added to Coinbase. This should be a minor-mid sized bump as ppl will be able to buy direct Ada. Current conservative BTC buyers will see Ada and invest albeit in lesser amounts;
- Coinbase hype will result in a minor bump that will be corrected similar to ETC.
- Regulatory review completed and ETFs permitted. If Charles is correct, this is going to be massive. There has been movement out of gold/GLD lately in the hundreds of billions. Couple that to a tightly controlled crypto market (less manipulation), then when the ETFs step in, most of my models have between 6x - 10x with a few showing less. I think they are inaccurate though because I am not certain on just how much money will be moved into this space. But even with a conservative estimate, the numbers are substantial. My expectation is that this will occu later in the year or early next (regulation) but there should be a substantial drop before that because if the regulatory bid fails, the market willl crash and prices will be lower than ICO except for BTC and others. It may be a wipe out of large proportions for many coins. I try to remove bias but with Ada this is difficult due to the credentialed people working on it. It’s not just guys in a garage although that has been a good bet in the last 20 years. There is so much forward thinking on this and the fault tolerance process really brings eyes on it. It makes you wonder why Google sent the invite. I’m sure they are somewhat curious on Ada development.
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So this is not financial advice…butI have been buying the dips and expect .04-.05 before the end of the year. Since the time frame is way out there, the earliest modeling shows within the next 2 months. That being said, I think these prices are a bargain and will continue buying the dip.
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I want to be a fan of the Asian markets however I dont fully understand the regulatory environment there, sentiment, uptake, etc., but one thing for sure is there is a lot of hype=noise and that skews sentiment and other factors drastically. Also the Government, outside of Japan and Malta, seem to be skittish and wish-washy on their stance. Probably because if huge sums of money go in and wallets hacked and funds stolen, it will cause instability. For the US, this is not as large of a problem as say, China for a number of reasons, in the more likely scenarios. But growth, uptake, and acceptance seems to favor the Asian markets.
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Grateful for you opinions thanks!
What’s the probablity from your model on .25c for 12/01/2018?
Feel free to describe your source Data, techniques and methods. I’d like to even know your preferred coding language and library.
Trading is rigged in crypto bc the market is unregulated as opposed to NYSE, etc.
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you are right and i did not mean to belittle your well researched analysis and data that has forecast this .4 - .5 cents prediction, and i apologize if it came out that way. Well, I guess only time will tell! its already September soon 
I can see you are well educated in your technical analysis, and its much appreciated!
i am not a technical analysis person. I am an investor and i only invest in Ada period. For Ada, this is what i see…it has to drop almost 50% in the next 4months for your prediction to come to fruition. Keep in mind we have a coinbase listing comming soon. We have mainnet launch in September too etc etc. This is why i find it hard for it to drop to .4 - .5 cents. But hey, what the heck do i know. If it does go that low, we should def buy the dip!
Cheers mate
coinbase listing comming soon.
This is not confirmed, and only a possibility. Soon might be next summer-ish, very unlikely to be listed before cardano is decentralized (will happed in Q1 2019 the soonest)
We have mainnet launch in September
Are you referring to Cardano 1.4? That doesn’t change a lot and there is no reason for the price to appreciate because of this.
These are only my opinion.
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There is no huff and puff here. They are statements of fact based on factual modeling. With that being said, I buy on dips.
I’ve been buying this dip and will continue to buy. I’ve completed an analysis of Ada against other coins and Ada looks like a bargain. The main issues seem to be hype (marketing) and time to market. I believe this will change in q2 2019 at which time the hype machine for Ada goes full tilt. Hopefully Shelley will get a lot of notice but the activity needs to come from the developer community. There seems to also be a lot of issues with Eth gaming coins and some other stuff that will negatively impact Eth. The same applies to Eos but they will likely work through those issues. Hopefully regulation comes into play where Cardano will have an advantage and the same applies to getting insured. Some of these other coins are going to have serious problems. When they do, the money will exit and will have to go somewhere. Ada is great since the approach is scientifically backed, conservative and as such lower in risk. Insurance companies like this. Ada shines in a regulated market scenario and I think Charles foresaw this and that’s why this is baked in the design.
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Several catalysts in play. ETH, Shelley/Mainnet, Regulation. All good for Ada. I see some other issues that are not so good, but all things should be measured at the appropriate time for an analysis…but overall positive for Ada. I think many people will be happy and possibly richer when all is said and done.
I concur with 95% of your conclusion. The markets are highly manipulated and most jump on the bandwagon for fomo, etc.
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Not one variant of my model has Ada at this price. All are lower. Highest most likely scenario is .22 USD but that is dependent on Shelley. If Shelley is done and out all bets are off and the model has to be redone.
Honestly, it’s not that easy to make such kind of prediction. Well, I can assume that it’s price will be around $1by the end of this year, but I’m not sure at this matter. I think that we should wait until we see. Anyway, now we have a chance to buy deep.
According to my model, there is no way this will be 1.00 by the end of the year unless Ada is on Coinbase. Completion of Shelly (I.e., full decentralization) will only take it out to .88 based on my model and that is subject to change even in this bear market. Without new money (institutions) or regulation, prices will stay relatively flat. This is not financial advice in any way. This is my opinion only.
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