Pessimistic Forecast Rationale?


I know we all have our own opinions on how Cardano will perform over 2018 and beyond from a pure price standpoint, but I was wondering if anyone could help explain something I found on

Usually their forecasts are TO THE MOON and totally unreasonable but it’s sometimes fun to dream and take a look at what their pie-in-the-sky price might be at the 1 year and 5 year time points. Recently I saw that they have a very negative view on Cardano and are only forecasting $0.30 by years end and only $0.49 for 5 year, OUCH! I’m not really sure where this is coming from in their forecast models and was wondering if anyone else may have any ideas. Thoughts?

(Again… I don’t really care what they say and still believe in the project whole heartedly but it’s just interesting to see what others in the Cardano community may think)


If we knew what the reason was we could consider whether it was valid, but otherwise there’s no point in speculating. IMO :slight_smile:


Looks like we are already ahead of schedule!


The whole idea of crypto is a high risk investment. The moment you have a method where people can transact independent of the Government, at least with many cryptos, provides a means for a person to avoid taxation (sales tax). This would cost governments billions of dollars of lost revenue that supports programs such as defense spending. It’s obvious that crypto for the most part cannot be stopped, but you can pretty much bank of some strict regulation at some point in time, if not an outright ban. Notice how conversations are turning from a coin being a currency to a ‘fuel’? A token represents a commodity much the same as a token that you would use for a video game or car wash; only now in a digital form. It doesn’t matter though, if uptake/adoption becomes more widespread look for there to be some action such as regulation off market manipulation to crash the market and cost those investors enough pain so as not to re-invest or discourage others from investing. The thing to know is when to get out before the house of cards collapses.


Yes I also wondered as previously I think I remember their forecast being much better for ADA. I actually find a lot of their analysis predictions somewhat conservative but was surprised to see the negative outlook on ADA. I would also like to know if there is anything fundamental behind it. If you get any quality information, I’d be interested to know. The ADA tech, road map and philosophy behind the technical approach seem excellent. Like anyone though, as much as I think something is good, and no matter how “in it for the love” we might be, people don’t want to lose money backing a project right? There doesn’t seem to be any news of progress or development, or I’m missing it, and regardless of how much Mr Hoskinson isn’t in it for the investors, I think some effort and regard for the people interested and investing their money in the project would be pertinent. And does anyone know how I can find any signs of life about ADA please?



I don’t bother looking at garbage from…probably next month all their “predictions” will change depending on who pays the advertisements for the month…LOL…


In the meantime, this graph is making me very happy…


If you’re into predictions, you might enjoy this sight, they have several tabs to base their prediction on (worldwide money, Bitcoin’s growth etc…)

I personally think that this game is impossible to predict, but my wishful thinking is that we’ll be somewhere between $2 and $5 by the end of the year, if all goes well.
But this market always exceeds our expectations. If you had told me in January 2017 when ETH was under $8 that it was going to be $1350 in December, I would have made fun of you.


Yes, on numerous Telegram and YouTube channels, on Twitter and right here in the forum. And there’s this great new thing called Google… :smile:


OK I was a bit patronising, but there was a smiley, and what I quoted implies more than just “other people’s perspectives and insights”, and you overreacted.


Sorry, maybe I’m biased or missing something, but to me, someone asking for help in finding signs of life in Cardano/ADA means they haven’t really tried.


To be honest @Bourne7i I also agree with @RobJF here… Roadmap updates, weekly technical reports, active forum, active Reddit, Active official youtube channel, active telegram, active Charles… None of this is hard to find. This should be pointed out for you, and it was done in a teaseful way, which you took and made way more serious… But what it means is you haven’t really done your own research well enough… You can start on that now, you have plenty of leads from this thread to go on.


Tone it down, it’s not reddit. Be polite and respectful.


@Bourne7i Let’s get back to a businesslike conversation without reproaches


Yes, you expect to be spoon fed information that is easily available to anyone who has done just a small amount of research - and if they dont comply with your demands, you throw a fit. Yes it takes some hours, but that is damn expected to do so. Anyone who has researched Cardano knows exactly what is going on right now and what will be happening because Its all available. Tons of hours of youtube material. Instead of saying this, which is painfully obvious to anyone, someone tease-fully put this to you which you have taken completely out of proportion and shown your own true colors. No, no one should expect being spoon fed easily available information because they are too damn lazy to do their own work, that is not what a community is for. If someone wants to spoon feed you, thats fine, but dont expect everyone to just get in line to do so. You could take the information as productive, if you weren’t aware of these channels mentioned, maybe even self-reflect on your own attitude, but instead you wanna make all of this into personal attacks and your feelings.

Yes you asked a simple question, and you got a simple answer.


It’s a pretty instructive place.
By using the search function in the forum you get quite good results on most questions


It doesn’t matter who’s “right” and who’s “wrong”. If you can’t disagree politely - you gonna get flagged and eventually banned. Make your point without swearing.


if you have nothing nice to say…


Nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, let alone in 5 years. :slight_smile:


Doesn’t matter to me I just keep buying every week!!!