GREAT!! If this guy were a politician he got my votes…his motives are pure and good. i also want ADA reaches high levels (ATH?) in the next years, the purpose of the project is even more important than that: a better world! Let’s hope after the release off Shelley there will be lots off dapps and initiatives using the platform Cardano.
Reach ATH, by the speculations i.e. marketcap (false illusion) or by adoption i.e. using by millions especially in Africa? It’s a long way to go, imo at least 3 to 5 more years.
Why do I say long way to get there by adaption?
Using it how?
- by mobile devices (ideal online solution, up-to-date state), it’s not a first-class citizen in Cardano at all.
- desktop apps (the dinosaurs of the 21st Century),
- tangem cards or vouchers (probably, for bootstrap is ok, but for a very-very short term, max 1yr) or
- TPMs (long way to go to have some MVP based on them)?
If it’s mobile, then how? Using by a centralized 3rd party service? Like Yoroi like wallet, then what’s the point of decentralization? Is mobile penetration adequate there?
Do we have decentralised solution for non-full nodes (i.e. SPV like wallets)? Hydra is an option though, but I do not think it will happen by the end of 21, yes I said 21 and not 20.
So, I cannot see that happen soon, as we do not have at least one tool of using it, but that’s ok and I hope that Cardano can catch the train for the ride, but we should not talk abt adoption till 22, which is the earliest I think for seeing some sings of the adoption.
Why? I think, cos
- 2020 is for Shelley what I think, if it goes well, will be matured by the end of this year.
- Would increase its price? Probably yes for short term, but that’s not cos the ppl buy them for using it, but cos ppl buy them for speculation (HODL, IPO, trading etc.).
- 2021 for maturing/implementing all the other relevant components Goguen (likely), Voltaire (I do not really think that would happen by the end of 2021, but who knows)
And, I am not pessimistic, even if these all above sound in that way, but a bit realistic and a kind of optimistic (for its success).
So, do not even dream about it until we have a very simple reference mobile app based on Hydra that also contains at least some client components of Goguen (like sending a pre-compiled or a 3rd party created smart contract to the network) for using it.
So, pls be realistic.
I think adoption, like decentralization, is not binary but rather an analog scale. You are right that there is much work to be done, and this is what excites me and motivates me every day. The incremental steps forward are leading to the future that we all envision. I’m glad there are pragmatic and thoughtful individuals like yourself, @_ilap, that are focused on these solutions as well.
If I could just interpret this post into laymen terms…(damn)
I have lately made a plea for a Call to Action that this conversation completely compliments,
@_ilap I look forward to you stepping into an expert role where you are willing to debate on the future of the protocol and are willing to publicly accept vote delegates to support your vote.
Please consider it and I hope you will look to gather other supporters in the future.
Thnx @_ilap for your reaction. Speaking for myself i see the great perspective on the longer range and think at the years 2026-2028, not in the first 2 years. I hodl for the future, but am also curious at the price reaction after shelley, goguen.
Imo, price after Shelley will increase, as staking will attract speculators (i.e free money for staking, trading etc. so, greediness will be the main driver) and some of the pool operators need to liquidate (get some cash) some of their holdings too. I.e. staking will pump around 1.4bn ADA into the system yearly, some of them be hold and some of them will be liquidated. So, probably, it will have affect on the price in addition to the current market dynamics (current forces impact prices).
Also, keep in mind that all cryptocurrencies are attached to the Bitcoin price in a negative sense, e.g. when BTC price goes down almost all
alt's one goes down, when its price goes up the
alt's price do not really want to go up in the pace as BTC’s does. And consequence is, BTC is currently at around ~50% of its ATH, while ADA is only at 4%.
For Goguen, I am not sure, as the contracts need to be used to speed up the velocity of ADA (i.e. you need ADA for contracts means demand will increase by its popularity for usage).
Anyway, we will see, as I cannot find my crystal ball to tell the exact future.
i feel like making a video about this. yes i think that upward price movements will be there - BUT - most of it is already priced in and will not see exponential growth most expect.
the btc halving (happening tomorrow) will largely adversely affect prices. that paired with expectations of shelley will be met the same way anticipation for the iohk summit last year was. which is to say excitement priced in followed by disappointment when expectations are unmet. once they realise shelley doesn’t mean (on par with eth) smart contracts or dev migration from eth etc.
then once goguen happens hopefully before year end, that won’t happen as people expect as the iele k framework compiler efforts (for now as far i know) have been abandoned.
Your post seems to make some assumptions that ignore a significant amount of information as well as the planned rollout strategy as repeatedly articulated by Charles Hoskin in numerous videos. These strategies will have a significant effect on adoption. Consider the following:
The hiring of global advertising giant McCann – Cardano Foundation has not spent a small fortune on this global giant as a charity. Charles H. has already rejected their initial proposals in a forthright way, and given then a proverbial kick in the backside for under- estimating the value of the Crypto-ecosystem and Cardano mass adoption targets. McCann, to their credit did not walk away because they believed CF & Charles H. were deluded, rather they were forced to really come to a far deeper understanding of the historical impact of the Cardano ecosystem on the future of global commerce. So, you should not underestimate the quality, diversity and expensiveness of the coming advertising and educational campaigns that will accompany the rollout of all the remaining stages of the Cardano ecosystem.
Charles H. has explicitly stated that IOHK in collaboration with researchers have scientifically solved the mass adoption blockers that have plagued the crypto-ecosystem since Bitcoin was introduced and especially, Ethereum’s smart contracts. Remember, he was with Ethereum at the beginning and has worked on Ethereum Classic. IOHK know all the structural design faults, limitations, as well as the community organisational weakness that have resulted in the underlying systematic design failures of Ethereum Smart Contracts as seen by the problems of DApps built on this platform. This explicit assertion by Charles H. is no small matter, and shows that IOHK’s tenacious scientific philosophy approach will bring a massive relief to the crypto industry as a whole, as they find that using the Cardano platform tools will not only be much easier, but more importantly, be programmably and mathematically proven to be secure.
Africa has the highest adoption rate of use of Mobile Apps per capita in the world. They can’t afford Laptops/Desktops. But thanks to the Indians and Chinese mobile phones clones which cost around USD10-20, they are able to access the Internet using prepaid vouchers. Due to poverty and slower rates of economic development, Africa has instead built extensive wireless telecommunications infrastructure. I have been to the middle of a National Park, where there is no electricity, no civilisation, and have been have able to call overseas on a 4G network! If you haven’t yet travelled and lived in Africa, you will be amazed at the level of innovation of the locals and their capacity to use even old phones, with text only screens, to run Apps, e.g. MPESA, the famous peer-to-peer money transfer App which was live long before Tap-and-go in many Developed countries. So, don’t let Developed world outdated misconceptions about Africa fool you. Charles H. who has done a lot of travels has certainly had the eye-opener and his perceptions about Africa’s potential are based on sound factual information, which I agree with totally.