Betamax vs VHS.
I am very optimistic about the chart, hopefully we will go much lower. Many great targets on the way, 0.10, 0.05, 0.024 even.
Then you agree with me there is no reason to be buying or holding right now. Glad we cleared that up.
I never said that, and I dont agree with that.
Yeah, I notice you aren’t saying much of anything.
Thats because you and me are the exact opposite and these are the two kinds who make up a market. Guess where the money ends over time.
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Me right now…
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Well, I’m not sure what side of the market you are on, because you said you hope it goes lower. Which makes no sense if you are holding.
I got out as soon as I could, after I finally got access to my wallet. If I buy back in before 3400 I’m all to the good.
If ADA jumps up to more than that before i can get in, then I will have i missed it.
Anyway, it’s easy to talk about “where the money ends over time,” a lot harder to make claims if you, you know, actually tell someone what trades you’ve made or are planning on making.
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Now I am involved for many reasons, but lets tackle this from a pure trading perspective.
It makes completely sense. The lower the price goes, the lower the risk, and the more opportunity there is.
You get optimistic when prices rise - I get optimistic when prices drop
You get pessimistic when prices drop - I get pessimistic when prices rise
Why is that?
The upmove is the pay-day, the down-move is where you earn the money. The upmove is cash-out time. Who do you think we are cashing out into? the money doesn’t come out of thin air.
Optimism overprices, Pessimism underprices, and you want to buy underpriced, not overpriced.
Who do you think smart-money sells to? Its people like you looking at a chart going up, making fancy lines and outrageous claims of lambo and moon and targets that will never come… and once the last chaser has bought in, all these shares or coins are sitting in weak hands with lots of people at the top which is not sustainable, and it starts collapsing and all these fools who bought in quickly sits on huge losses and stampede each other to sell, and eventually it all goes back to smart-money at low prices and the cycle repeats, rinse and repeat…
How did smart-money/strong hands get to accumulate? They buy in when there was selling pressure, they cant buy in up-moves or the price will go up, just as they need buying pressure to sell into… and thats great, because we have people like you who work the opposite. We couldn’t do this if most people weren’t like you, we both need each other… Obviously I myself prefer being on the side that gets paid, rather than being the one paying.
Here is the flaws in your strategy…
First are you talking about 3400 Satoshis? or 0.34 USD? I find it a little suspicious you sell on the almost high of that down-move … But sure, Lets say you did sell out into BTC at 3400… First, I know you are willing to buy in and all-in at higher prices since I know how you think.
and unless you are a highly skilled trader with a high edge (doing positive EV trades), this is mathematically not something you will succeed in, so even if you manage succeed it is still a bad move if you are engaging in a trade with negative EV. Even if it works out for you and you manage to increase your ada, you lose.
Second point… It could all happen in one of two days that it is back above 3400, costing you ADA, so now you need to sit clued to your screen for what could be months or a year, lets say we stay in a range, and you probably end up missing it somehow, maybe even buying/reselling etc… Thats typically what happens…
Third point… If you are buying in at 3400 Satoshi, lets just say thats a price of 0.30 USD, 0.30 USD is still a very high price for Cardano… Its a large market cap, and you are sitting at a high risk - medium return potential… Now lets say we go down to 0.05 Cents, I will be having a average around there, I will end up sitting on a average around 0.08 Cents… lets say we go back to 0.30 USD now, well then suddenly I am up 350% so I have a huge comfortable cushion… If we go to 1USD I am up 1100%, you will only be up 300%… And what if we go to 0.30USD and now it suddenly starts dropping again? you gonna sell? What if it goes back to 0.15? You gonna trade in and out and fail? It will never work.
(I didn’t bother doing the numbers, so these are roughs)
I knew about Cardano late, since it was 1$, I knew I had missed the chance to get in early… but I know how markets operate and I end up with a very low average due to how I operate… Every market works exactly the same, the crypto market is the most pure however, in terms of cycles. If the market forces me to get in at a high price, yes I have to take it, but the opportunity is exponentially higher the lower the price goes.
Again I shouldn’t be educating you, because in reality, you are the one on the opposite of these trades (a long with many others that think exactly like you)
The crypto-market, is not a market you day-trade or try and time things, you will crushed. Because it spends most of its time going down, and the least of its time going up.
3400 round number it was actually 33 and change (yes, Satoshis). I would have gotten out much earlier, but I couldn’t access m y wallet because of their technical faults.
You’re right, I will never buy the absolute bottom - I’m going to need to see some signs of life before I buy. If it explodes and I miss it, I miss it.
But again, you are talking about wanting the market to go lower, so you can get in.
Which means, it doesn’t make sense to buy now.
I don’t know why you are having such hard time understanding we agree, but you haven’t said anything that makes me think we don’t.
You also don’t mention how you decide what is a good value for ADA and what isn’t, nor how you were going to decide to buy.
You said you were going to buy low - how do you decide how low “low” is?
Again these concepts flies right by your head…
But again, you are talking about wanting the market to go lower, so you can get in.
No, I am fine with it turning around tomorrow, but the lower it goes the better, because I accumulate into selling pressure. Its not about that I want to buy low, Its that the lower it goes, the less risk and more opportunity there is. I dont care what the price does, because I am covered in all ways.
Which means, it doesn’t make sense to buy now.
Again I never said this, and this is not how it works.
I don’t know why you are having such hard time understanding we agree, but you haven’t said anything that makes me think we don’t.
Trust me, we do not agree at all.
You also don’t mention how you decide what is a good value for ADA and what isn’t, nor how you were going to decide to buy.
No I did not, because what is good value is irrelevant, the less the price is, the better value, the less risk and the more opportunity there is. Since the real value behind Cardano is very low, same with any project, it doesn’t matter, its what the market can sustain, thats why you dont time it… Again if you want me to throw numbers out there I would say 500M to 1B USD, But I am not going to wait around for that, because that would be silly. You have to think of it in a probabilistic way.
You said you were going to buy low - how do you decide how low “low” is?
Actually I do have a strategy for this, but obviously nothing I am going to share… But go look where ADA was stable, and look at other cryptos for what they could sustain in a bear… and that is good indicator of support/value… But what I can tell you is, I am not buying into a certain one price, that amateurs do, you scale in over time… And you scale into lower prices, not higher prices… ADA could turn around tomorrow, just because we get a new wave of speculation and its off to the races, Its all a probabilities game, and you need to be positioned for everything.
ADA is going to where it is going to go, if target that it will make a new high some day, you dont care, you just want to cost-in at as cheap as possible…
The reason you are involved in this all in mentality, is that you have a big % of your portfolio involved - and the thing is, I have many investments, in many spaces, so I approach this in the right manner without getting my feelings involved. Since the movements dont affect me.
There is no price to buy in at, you scale in, you dont go all in at any price, specially not in volatile markets… This is something you will learn after a lot of experience…
You’re scaling in lower. I’m familiar with that concept. But at some point (presumably not at 8500) you said “OK, I’m going to start scaling in.”
How did you decide when it was low enough to start scaling in?
And, it’s 1800 right now. How do you decide at what levels you scale? And down to - where?And where do you get the extra money to continue scaling when it goes to 1000, or 500?
Well the simple way to put this, the lower it goes the lower the market cap is… and that means it takes less and less to sustain that price… Because we are not dealing with a company or anything of intrinsic value but future speculation on intrinsic demand that will give it value… Then it all becomes investor cycles of speculation…
First lets get away from the BTC/ADA… I want to look at it from ADA/USD…
Lets say ADA was still a speculative state with no use-case.
If ADA had a market cap of 1 trillion dollars right, the chance of it doubling is going to be a loooong proccess if not impossible. So if you buy in at 1 trillion, you have risk but no reward…
If you buy ADA at a market cap of 100 Million USD… Even if there was a 80% chance it would go to 0, and 20% chance it would go to 1 billion… That would be a good trade, since you have the reward making up for the risk… If you took that risk/reward trade many times, you would make money over time…
Again I just want you to understand that concept, that its about risk/reward, not necessarily buying in at good value, since that value could potentially be 0…
I am not going to explain and tell you the exact strategies I apply to scale in, but its not necessary, here are a few things to look at as good indicators… First pessimism, you want to buy into others selling, because it is this selling pressure that eventually makes the support… When all weak hands have sold, these transfer to the strong hands… and thats when you find support…
Look at where it was stable after public exchange launch… Thats when few knew about it, and it wasn’t really moving with Bitcoin… I think thats a great starting point to determine that is where it has a strong support, that support could have moved up a little now, but the closer we get to that range, the more comfortable I am. Another indicator is go look at other projects, what could they sustain in the last bear market?
Litecoin could keep 100-400M when no one cared about it, 4 year bear market, so Cardano can def keep the same and more, since its a much better project… If block-chain fails, of course it will go lower, but then it doesnt matter anyway. I think the Absolute low (assuming blockchain stays) is 500M to 1B
So you have to look at this from two ways, to consider where to scale in…
How high do you think it can go in a given scenario
How low do you think it can go in a given scenario
assign your probabilities, and scale in giving that scenario. You dont buy in at a certain point, you buy in more and more the closer you come to your lower range… and if it goes up, you dont chase it up, you just accept it… Because there will be other projects, other markets, other places.
The reason I can scale in, is because I am not all in (and never will be)… That is the thing… and thats why I can do it…
I can tell you, that any price you choose to all-in at, you will be down 95% most likely at some point. Which is why it is never worth doing, Its a fools game, because you are trying to get “lucky” if you dont have experience with markets, I understand that you wont see it like this now… But you will learn and pay for these mistakes.
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So, you are using previous price levels (market cap) to determine the levels at which you’ll buy.
People call that “technical analysis” which you poo poohed earlier.
And there is nothing on that chart that says hold (whether you go by BTC or market cap).
You are holding for an entirely different reason, which is, if the move happens tomorrow (and it could) you don’t want to miss it. Nothing wrong with that, but you aren’t using TA to determine that you are holding.
But if it goes to $1 tomorrow, it won’t be because it was easy to see on the chart.
And while I understand the idea of market cap, the reality is you have to go through BTC (or maybe ETH) to get to ADA, so it only makes sense to compare those two. I mean, why trade BTC for ADA if BTC is outperforming ADA?
Lastly, you say you’ll never be all in, but of course you can be all in, at least with any money you have dedicated to ADA. If ADA continues to decline, at some point, you will have scaled in 100%, and then you will be at the mercy of the market. Your money could double tomorrow, or be tied up for years waiting for ADA to recover.
The difference between you and I is, you’ll tie up your money waiting for the breakout, I’ll wait for the start of the breakout and then deploy my money. Neither way is “wrong,” they are different.
The downside for me is, I could conceivably miss the move, or get churned if the market gets choppy. But if the breakout starts gently, I have all the benefits you do and a lower average entry price.
The downside for you is your money could be tied up for a while and you may have paid much more than you could have.
Like right here, if I consider 0.024-0.08 the good zone… Thats only 50-80% from where we are now…
Lets say I buy 1000$ at 0.14 = 7142
2000$ at 0.07 = 28571
4000$ at 0.03 = 133333
= 170K ADA
if I all in at 0.14 = 7000$ = 50K ada
If I scale fully= 7000$ = 170K ADA
If I only managed to buy 1000$ = 7100 ADA (but I was never down, that is important)
if goes to 1 Dollar here is the reward:
All in at 0.14 = 50K USD
Only buy 1000$ = 7100 USD
Scale = 170K USD
But here is the risk table, if it goes to 0.03, how much would you be down.
All in at 0.14 = 1500 USD left of 7000
Scale = 4500 USD left of 7000 and you are now sitting at a price of 0.03 with a very low market cap, with very low downward risk from here. (+ your reward went up exponentially, this is low risk/high reward)
The difference between you and me is that your risk/reward ratio is horrible, market cap is not Technical analysis, I would throw this in the fundamental category. But there is nothing wrong with using a chart to accumulate on the down-ward, sure I am all up for that.
What if you just waited for 0.03? and bought in… Sure you could do that, but now you are skewing the reward ratio… Since you might never end up participating… and that is not worth it either… That is why you play the median game, where you dont rely on luck or extremes. This is how you pick up steady performance.
But traditional TA cannot work, you can gain no edge by looking at a chart. The reason for this is simple, if there is any edge (as small as it might be) this will be easily tapped out by bots since TA is so easy to program into a trading bot. There are other more complicated measures that work in a sense of gaining an insight into supply and demand though, but they do not involve traditional technical indicators.
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I only buy when the price goes to 1 cent, every time I bought more the price went down even more.
Average is now 0,33 cents, I hodl and wait
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See, you don’t understand TA.
Hopefully, I wouldn’t buy at $.14 unless the market was on its way up, or I could get a pretty tight stop loss underneath the market that made sense.
And if it is, and I buy 7000 at .14, when it hits $1, I’m 7 times better off than you.
We’re getting pretty hypothetical here, because we’re not looking at a chart, but I wouldn’t buy “all in” at $.14 unless I thought the market was going up, and no way I stay in from .14 all the way down to .03. I certainly could lose 30%, say, down to .10, but if it reverses again at .11, and then goes to $1, I’ve done far better than you.
And what 's more, if the market turns tomorrow, and I get in at $.20, when it hits $1, I’ll have made 5x, and you’ll have made zero.
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First you cant see from a chart if its going up or not… and again you are saying if you bought in at 0.14 you wouldn’t hold it down to 0.03… That means you will be day-trading and trying to time things, which is unlikely you will succeed in. Specially in crypto.
Even if you manage to succeed, if you have done it in a negative EV manner, you have essentially lost.
It might be 1/10000 that has the skills to ride waves in crypto-to-crypto markets, for marginal gains that comes with a lot of work, dedication and stress, that has to make up for these gains. Turning out to be a pretty bad hourly rate unless you have a lot of capital invested… and the thing is, if the entire market is in a bear-market you are just reducing your losses in USD…
And if it is, and I buy $7000 at $.14, when it hits $1, I’m 7 times better off than you.
You are not better off, because you are not calculating in your risk/reward, your risk/reward is worse than mine. Its all about the risk/reward ratio… That is what it all comes down to… Are you making positive or negative EV decisions.
I’m not a day trader I still believe in this project, I’m a small investor with normal job.
Instead of going on holiday with my wife and child, I invested in ADA
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That is fine…
What is your point?
You invest, and you hold it, and dont touch it… I have no problem with that… That is the best way to do it for amateur investors… But also add to that position, or just over time, specially when it goes lower… Whether you do it in a very strategic and calculated manner or just on some hunches, it doesn’t really matter in the end.