Is Cardano (ADA) doomed to fail?

First of all, this is NOT my personal pov. Don’t get me wrong, I bet in the Cardano ecosystem from summer 2020, the price back then was like 0,10. I heard a statement today that the whole peer-to-peer review thing has created a lot of effort and this thing is not functional after the Alonzo event it hasn’t go anywhere I mean there are other eth killers who have already implemented pocs and are going to have Layer 2 and 3 solutions. I totally agree that price reflects some of the truth, but keep people developing on the chain keeps the price up, we have seen that already in other projects, it’s not only the hype, it’s the dapps NFTs and stuff.

Seeing ADA price kept in same levels and hearing this statement today, made me worry. Is ADA doomed to fail and I don’t mean that it will deep to zero, I mean that developers and people will turn their attention to other projects like Solana, that Charles already hyped it by telling “you guys do a great job there”.

So, honestly what is your opinion on this statement?

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Since it’s an opinion that you are asking for, I’ll give you mine.

On the contrary on what can look like due to lots of different projects advertising themselves, It takes time to software to be developed, debugged, tested and deployed, it will take longer if you want to be sure the software is as robust and secure as possible since cryptos are something that is here to stay, it is better a slow deployment with long term vision rather than a lot of dApps easy to hack

It is not a question of price, at least at the moment (also because if the whole crypto world is going to be accepted, then everything, bitcoin breaking ath included, is basically underpriced (of course this is not to be intended as financial advice)), It is a question of trustless security, and from my personal point of view Cardano is way better than the poorly decentralized Solana (at least at the time of writing this)

hope my opinion will be useful to you, always open to correction

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I couldn’t agree no more. Crypto are here to stay, it’s the feature of money and finance.
Also speaking about ADA, I am also watching the different swaps and finance services (sundaeswap) and can understand that it will take for ADA to burst.
Thank you for your answer, basically I like your aspect that you see crypto world as a technology and not like an investment, as much as I do.
Much appreciated! <3

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Cryptocurrency is the future!

I appreciate your point of view but I don’t see it in such a dire way. We just had the highest transaction volume ever without defi. I’ve been very impressed with our NFT scene. I also think there is a lot of room for all the good crypto projects to find success. It’s going to take some time for things to shake out and for the cream to rise but I think Cardano will be a leader in the space for a long time. That is not to say things are perfect but there is an enormous amount of pent up demand for Cardano defi. When we start to get into full swing in the coming months it will get crazy. That is my opinion.

You just made my point. There is pent up demand because Cardano holders can’t do anything while DeFi is exploding everywhere else. ADA holders are unable to participate in a practical way while everyone else is moving forward.

I get that Cardano is an amazing project but the pace of development just isn’t fast enough if Cardano expects to be at the top of the digital finance revolution. It’s still a game of public adoption. If no one is using your chain, your impeccable code is worthless.

What worries me is that I’m a long time Cardano believer and if I’m feeling this way then it’s time to worry.

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Definitely see your point. I wish things moved more quickly also. But looking at various social media and on chain metrics I think there is an enormous amount of people happily staking and or participating in the various ISOs ready to jump in when it’s ready. In fact I am more worried about the Defi projects melting under the massive participation. That is one of the reasons I think they are taking their time because they know what is coming and are getting prepared.

I understand your perspective. I simply urge you to seek to understand the macro view of world finance.
No one project will own all finance. Cardano has many benefits, especially today. Check some historical growth of crypto networks from launch to the first two-5 years. Largest growth occurs during these times. Cardano’s Network just launched this year, in 2021.

Simply put total financial market carries 300+ trillion
Crypto currency currently holds only 2.5 trillion.

It took ten years to reach 2.5 trillion, New estimates put growth over the next 2-5 years to 10 trillion.

If you can understand this, just buy and hold. Buy the best projects with real capabilities, that don’t punish investors when hacks or code breaks arise.

Cardano is on a very short list that fits that bill. I teach this and would be willing to share my education stack if you are interested.

Cheers!

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Next time I come to Vegas we need to hang out!

Similar things said about Apple when it first dropped.

Successful companies and strategies resonate together.

Slow and steady wins this race. Sorry, but history shows, “move fast break fix” will not work for a world financial system.

I’m not saying Cardano is the Apple of Crypto…

But moving slow so things work correctly and in a stable and secure way, finds great appeal with the masses.

I believe many will shy away from networks that must shut down due to hacks and scaling issues, etc.

Just an opinion… cheers

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A little look back.

Since I made this comment Cardano has lost approx 61% of it’s value.

Being in markets long enough teaches you some very tough lessons.

I was one of the first Cardano believers and still am.

However there is ONE, very big point to remember in investing and trading.
The best product doesn’t necessarily win.

The market is filled with examples of the better tech or product losing out to inferior products.

You don’t make money on better products and better tech. You make money investing in products and tech that other people will pay you a higher price for later. It doesn’t matter how great YOU think the product is if OTHER people aren’t buying it.

If you want to make money in markets, you have to learn to read charts and understand all of the data other than price that lets you see which products that market is currently valuing.

I think Cardano is one of the best blockchain technologies in the space, but until the market does too, you won’t make any money. This goes for everything. Tezos is a great tech, even Charles has lauded it. I’ve never owned it and the price action is terrible. Tezos is far better than many of the chains in the top 100 but that’s not what the market cares about.

And the only way to recognize if the market is interested is reading the data in the charts.

I’m not going to accuse Cardano of being slow because this is ground breaking tech and no one really knows how long it should take. But in terms of public perception, Cardano is far behind other Defi projects and because of the EUTXO model, Cardano isn’t even visible in many of the other Defi platforms where you consistently see EVM compatible chains like AVAX, Fantom, Solana, Terra etc. Cardano simply isn’t staying top of mind.

Cardano is great and I believe will have it’s time but the market and charts will decide that.

BTW, right now there isn’t anything worth buying until the market establishes a new floor.

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I wouldnt say it is doomed to fail, but the possibility exists. Lately i read here on the forums about pools deliberately doing empty blocks and other pools running multiple duplicit block producers. If a bad actor combinrs these two, they could cause a lot of damage to the cardano network.

You don’t think the researchers didn’t think or plan for that?

Seems rather unsure if they thought about these two possibilities. They are just researchers, not prophets.

While other cryptocurrency projects might disregard scientific preparation and planning too much, this might overestimate the work done at IOG a bit.

The research papers are quite okay and the code is far from the worst I’ve seen, but they are also not an unprecedented revelation. They can still get and do a lot of things wrong.

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In this phase of web3 nobody can say, which technology will enforce at the end - look at the longtime chart of Amazon and you can see, how long it can take that market realizes the superiority of a new technology or brand. There is a common thread, however, because in the phase leading up to 2008, Amazon placed a lot of emphasis on laying the groundwork for later success and invested heavily in building mass adoption rather than quick success on the stock market.
What makes me optimistic in the case of Cardano, especially in comparison to Solana, is the fact, that Cardano hasn’t had any downtime and Solana had several of them. Some people talk about a design failure - I am far from being able to judge this seriously, but the fact that Cardano has been designed from the ground up and is proceeding step by step makes me very confident in this regard, in the long run.
What also speaks for the long-term viability of Cardano are the aspects of building the open source community and governance, these are two aspects that make it resilient to changes in the management level and secondly lead to the development steps being discussed out, which avoids mistakes in the first place.
The method of formal verification is also a unique selling point and, in my opinion, increases the code quality enormously from the outset.
Last but not least, a subjective criterion: I love the approaches that should lead to the empowerment of large parts of the previously disadvantaged world population, e.g. in Africa and the associated activities for further education, such as the course for female programmers in Ethiopia.
Cardano will succeed because of mass adoption, not so much because of financial speculation.
The biggest threat I currently see is the huge dominance of exchanges in the Cardano ecosystem and their ability to exert influence.

Aren’t most of the other chains also built open source?

In comparison to the great plan of having community governance, I’m reading a little too often: “Oh, something like that was proposed, but the people at IOG didn’t like it. …” Up to now, we are quite dependent on IOG and there is not much too be seen of community decisions independent of them.

Formal verification is nice, but only as good as the properties you formally verify with it. We would have to look in detail, what has been proven and – more importantly – what has not been proven.

That can cut both ways. For people critical of cryptocurrencies, we are selling a worthless Kool-Aid not solving their problems to already disadvantaged people.

Oh and I forgot to mention interoperabilty - another feature that sets Cardano apart from others and will ultimately contribute to its success. So as a developer, I would at least rate that as an advantage.

What makes me optimistic in the case of Cardano, especially in comparison to Solana, is the fact, that Cardano hasn’t had any downtime and Solana had several of them. Some people talk about a design failure - I am far from being able to judge this seriously, but the fact that Cardano has been designed from the ground up and is proceeding step by step makes me very confident in this regard, in the long run.

I could not agree with this more, people fear Solana could wipe out Cardano but the fact is Solana is very infantile compared to Cardano and the technology just isn’t as sophisticated and capable as Cardano is. The last time Solana went dark, it was for over 8 hours without any clear explanation. As cryptocurrency becomes much more mainstream and adopted, I do believe cryptocurrencies like Cardano will be at the forefront while others like Solana fall into the ashes. I truly believe we are not anywhere near mainstream adoption and the fact is if Cardano can maintain this growth as it is slowly upgrading and bettering itself, then we will be more than fine.

More Cardano wallets are registered than ever before, and 90% of Cardano investors are in the red from the past year, yet the sentiment around Cardano remains to be immensely optimistic. We have been facing a downtrend since its peak of $3.10, but I do believe once the crypto markets picks up as the economy picks up in the next few years, we will see immense growth.

We also have to look at how much Cardano correlates to BItcoin and Ethereum, which have not performed well over the past year. Both ETH and BTC are nowhere near their all time highs so it would be rather ludicrous to expect the same.

I do believe that Cardano has found it’s support level at around 73-74 cents, and I strongly believe that if it falls below the 70 cent mark, it could signal a massive panic sell and crash. But for now, I am more than comfortable with the levels Cardano is at. I bought Cardano at 73 cents most recently, before that at 79 cents, before that 90 cents, and before that once again at around 75-76 cents. I am holding for the long term as the update on June 25th could increase the price as investor sentiment increases. (Of course I would like to inform you that this is not financial advice by any means, merely my personal opinion and how I have traded.)

In this phase of web3 nobody can say, which technology will enforce at the end - look at the longtime chart of Amazon and you can see, how long it can take that market realizes the superiority of a new technology or brand. There is a common thread, however, because in the phase leading up to 2008, Amazon placed a lot of emphasis on laying the groundwork for later success and invested heavily in building mass adoption rather than quick success on the stock market.
What makes me optimistic in the case of Cardano, especially in comparison to Solana, is the fact, that Cardano hasn’t had any downtime and Solana had several of them. Some people talk about a design failure - I am far from being able to judge this seriously, but the fact that Cardano has been designed from the ground up and is proceeding step by step makes me very confident in this regard, in the long run.

I also immensely agree with this comparison. Amazon and Cardano both are very similar in that they aimed to provide revolutionary technology but acknowledged it would take time before the market truly appreciates their capabilities. Cryptocurrency as a whole is not a mainstream investment, and it is very safe to say we are in the early adoption stages. It will be at least another decade until it becomes mainstream as I truly believe that most who do not understand cryptocurrency or certain ones merely invest in hopes for a profit without truly understanding how they function.

I also agree with this statement because I believe the peer-to-peer research method is absolutely revolutionary in the crypto community. Without any one developer having complete control or one group, this helps sustain growth and makes sure development is as sound and capable as possible.

All in all, Cardano has followed these trends in the pasts. In 2018 when it had sky rocketed to I believe the 1$ levels, it had dumped and crashed almost entirely. Trust the process and look for the long term, I believe Cardano will surpass its previous ATH by Q2 next year.

This is one issue about cryptocurrencies, as the community truly doesn’t have the decentralized power all cryptocurrencies love to offer. As long as IOG sustains immense control, it will be the downfall of ADA in the long term. But I also trust them for the time being as it is still in its very early development stages and true decentralized governance is something farther down the roadmap. If IOG wasn’t spearheading the development process, I fear Cardano would be nothing more than a sh#%-coin.

One thing that scares me about all ADA is that Cardano has over 90% of its total circulation controlled by very few wallets. This disparity in wealth distribution is the exact same issues we find with fiat currency, and it happens because the wealthy are the ones adopting cryptocurrency at a much higher rate than regular investors. I believe we need to combat the wealth disparity issue (which I believe will happen as regular investors adopt cryptocurrencies and Cardano), as well truly offering a decentralized governance system for Cardano.

How so? The holding mentality, the deflationary design, and the staking rewards, all work to rather make wealth disparities larger than smaller. There is no wealth redistribution built into Cardano (and, as far as I can see, not into any other cryptocurrency).

That’s not a problem as long as we would finally make our governments tax the rich until it starts to finally hurt them and redistribute to the poor. It doesn’t have to be solved by cryptocurrencies. But if they claim to solve it, the mechanism by which it is done should be explained.