Launch of shelly


#1

Do you think that it will be better to hold of buying after the launch of shelley in case it initially drives the price of ada down? or do you think it will cause it to pump after launch?


#2

That’s a good question, hard to tell.

You can make an argument for buying before Shelly, because once Shelly releases you’ll be constantly battling inflation. You can also make an argument that once Cardano is decentralized more users will jump into it.

Can’t think of a good argument to buy after Shelly.
It’s a huge milestone, and things will only go up from there.


#3

Crypto market history has repeatedly shown that a coin (any coin) with a major event always results in a price pump for that coin prior to its event. EOS, Tron, Ethereum, even Verge are few examples. I expect a price pump for ADA right before Shelly production release. The level of price rise depends on how good a marketing blitz campaign the Cardano Foundation implements. I will buy long before Shelly release. You don’t want to buy during the price pump because there will be a partial dump from day traders. Some of the price pump will be permanent. You don’t want to buy after the pump because prices will be higher post Shelly. My humble opinion and experience


#4

I agree, ADA should only increase in value after Shelley release. Staking should also limit the downward selling pressure as most holders will stake their ADA to generate profit, so a ‘put’ on the price can be expected.


#5

As mentioned before in this topic: People will (probably) start buying when the release is approaching. 1 reason being because they want to stake more ADA and 2nd reason being traders trying to profit from the price increase. I am expecting a huge price increase leading up to the release and a (small) dump after release because of the traders taking profit.

Personally I think ADA will only become cheaper then it is right now if BTC decides to take another huge dump. If BTC behaves price will only go up from here. I cannot see the price of ADA going down because of Shelley


#6

I have been buying ADA at the end of every month (if had available money), Its not much 0-600€
But I don’t look ADA price that much. When I have money on Binance I wait 1-14 days for market change on ETH - ADA

I like to think that ADA price will go around 1€.
Cardano team is very good. Making systems and we can make good programs using them.

So stabile stacking up for at least year, before I slow down.


#7

Conceptually Cardano will then be the first decentralized PoS. Am I right?

This should definitely mean and prove something from an ideological perspective. Hopefully it will put Cardano ahead of competition and hopefully it will create more interest for Cardano and developing on Cardano over others. This is definitely a big pro.

However, on the cons side to the average person not working or having speculated with cryptocurrencies it is still another Bitcoin with no brand and an environmental friendly footprint. So why should that person choose Cardano after Shelly rather than any other coin?

Also, IOHK is in my book notoriously known for not committing to initially announced deadlines. Shelly itself was initially scheduled for Q1 2018 as far as I recall. I will mention Ledger simply because they say one thing the partner/Ledger eventually delivers and still no commitment from Cardano/IOHK side. When you look back over 2018 it is definitely a much more robust Cardano and of course they need the foundation and back-end to work but it just means they were unrealistic with their goals and the vision for 2020 and anything beyond shelly on the initial roadmap and the “3 year contract” or whatever deal they have is now a question-mark.

I have not decided if I should start buying up again. I feel this could be an opportune moment but I have been telling myself that for the past five-six months watching my holdings diminish further.


#8

This tweet was worrying me a bit, since Charles only calls Q1-2020 FUD (which it probably is), but doesn’t actively defend Q1-2019. I am hoping for somewhere May - June


#9

In Charles we trust. Besides that: is the Shelley deadline being postponed really such a big deal? I’d rather have a rock solid product instead of one with tons of flaws because the release was rushed. This thing is being built to last for decades.


#10

I think it’s negative because it means the project is developing slower than initially communicated (and intended) and makes me wonder if this is because of poor (stakeholder) management or something more fundamental issue with the “product”.

I still think Cardano has come a long way.


#11

Personally I wouldn’t mind Shelly getting delayed another month or two. I really want to stack up on as much :ada: as possible before staking. If bitcoin happens to crash once more before a bull run, I wouldn’t mind either.


#12

I don’t think it will matter much. Cardano is still linked in price with BTC and probably will continue this relation until some significant adoption kicks in.


#13

I don’t mind waiting, but at least face it honestly and tell people what’s the problem and why the delay keeps happening, and what kind of management solution you got. Accept and apologize, instead calling everyone FUD.

Last year CH said, they got delayed on design phase, but got them done by June/July. The rest of implementation is simply piece of cake , it’s slow but it will be months away not years away, the latest is 2019 Q1. Then what’s the reason for current delay?

Also Shelley was originally planned to release in 2018 Q1, according to CH’s interview in 2017 October, given only 6 months timeframe, this shouldn’t be a too difficult task.


#14

I think on one side Charles is generally pushing for a highly transparent crypto venture, on the others side this forces some impossible estimation & planning tasks on him, which he may only solve with a best effort approach.

No one has ever designed & implemented a provably secure PoS protocol before. It’s a venture with lot of uncertainty, never seen before challenges, completely undiscovered territories.

Now if you add to this that there is a global delivery team for the protocol, where the delivery processes are constantly changing & evolving it brings extra difficulty to estimate.

Then of course lot of design is based on research papers, which also have a hardly predictable timeline of getting written & accepted. Creativity & inspiration are things you can’t estimate.

Now you also have one shot for the PoS to succeed (you can’t afford any critical bugs after release), this creates extreme quality measures, which on one side you can compensate with that Formal Verification, but you need rigorous testing.

Finally there are some external dependencies as well like you need a critical mass of candidates who are professional, experienced & reliable enough to start their staking pools and contribute to the infrastructure. Here you have quite some training to be done.

Where I am getting is that it’s absolutely impossible to estimate & plan this venture.

The constant delay of the milestones is where the high transparency of Cardano kicks back. It would have been a possibility to say nothing like most of the projects.

The only thing what is important to be earlier then other competing crypto ventures with PoS. If possible with a year advantage. Then we may easily forget the delays.


#15

Ya, it’s totally understandable.

This is not easy job, but during Charles talk, he made everything sounded so easy, they are so competent to the job. They know exactly what and how to do.

Or maybe the over-promising estimate was just a way of marketing.

Not every investor here has a Ph. D in blockchain. But if you over-promise something to people and you didn’t make it. That’s a lie.

Something must be wrong here, please just admit the mistakes and fix them.

https://www.projectmanagement-training.net/appendix-1-causes-of-delays-in-it-projects/


#16

Any deployment which arrives when its ready is what has happened prior. Best prediction of future is past.


#17

After talking to people at the meetup last night I feel very confident that Shelly and Goguen (decentralization and smart contracts) will happen by year end at the very latest. They are in the implementation phase now.


#18

Ethereum staking first… N then cardano… Maybe at 2030


#19

“Finally there are some external dependencies as well like you need a critical mass of candidates who are professional, experienced & reliable enough to start their staking pools and contribute to the infrastructure. Here you have quite some training to be done.”

I fall squarely in this group :grin:


#20

It’s ShellEy!