The reason why Ada will hit 10,000 $ and much higher


#121

Dear @BugsBunny, your comment inspired this post: Catastrophic Collapse: How to Visualize it?

Hopefully that post provides a bit more context for my comments above. Thank you for the inspiration! :slight_smile:


#122

sorry but I don’t really understand why the value of 1 dollar will eventually buy me a house?


#123

I get what you are saying, but again, the problem is if 1 ADA will ever be able to buy me a motorbike?

what I mean is that the value we give to a motorbike will probably not change (excluding AI and robotics) so say that a motorbike is 10.000 human working hours. today I can buy those 10k hours with $10k (so to speak).
Will 1 ADA ever be able to buy 10k working hours?

From the discussion of this thread I got that the supply of ADA is too big for 1 ADA to buy that much working hours because the full ADA supply would account for an astronomically bigger amount of working hours than humanity can offer if its valuation was as such. Therefore 1 ADA would always readjust to be able to buy only a ~50 hours of human work.


#124

Nobody said that. :slight_smile: I’m not sure where you got that idea from, but respectfully, it seems like you’re trying to reduce the conversation to a monocausal driver of ADA value appreciation. That’s a reductionist approach to analysis that doesn’t really work to capture the reality of any complex system.

In fact, nothing in the known universe is driven by a monocausal factor. Even at the most reduced quantum physical level, multiple factors (gravity, strong and weak forces, electromagnetism, and other subatomic particles and behaviors) are constantly influencing our physical reality.

The same is true for all socioeconomic systems and the future of ADA’s value. Specifically, ADA appreciation can and will likely occur due to at least the four channels of relative and absolute value appreciation described above, which collectively, can and will likely result in ADA hitting $10,000 or more over some estimatable period of time. (No, I don’t have time to analyze all the factors that go into such an estimate.)

Whether you can buy a house or not with any unit of currency is based on all the factors (and many more) that I described above. To simply dismiss it all with a reductionist framework that ignores the inherent complexity and nuance of the system doesn’t accurately achieve the clarity you seek.


#125

I would say, 1 Ada can always buy you a unique 6 digit accounting number computer system … what’s the peak value of the 6 digits? The biggest most confident economic credences you can assign them , on the farthest market . If Ada is capable of merely , holding , a representational output of a 6 digit labeled computing system… then one would hope that one of these unique and truly verifiable items would be in extensive demand


#126

a part from that I get that you are basically saying nobody knows what will happen anything can happen sort of Blakc Swan approach… but yes I was trying to have a more practical approach, but I can also appreciate your approach


#127

I was just saying. . right now a 3d printed house on the Russian steppe 2nd? World country, costs what , $30,000? If that technology follows any intense growth curve , or costs in general to produce energy and construction come down, that is the sum of the practical growth in society , … is the USD open to wild personal use cases that are future accepting ? Yes , mostly , but it is not an ecosystem designed for the future , and it is not verifiable or even predictable for that matter for some systems.


#128

oh ok, thanks, I get it now.

That’s why I made the Working hours example later on.


#129

I see where the confusion is now. Respectfully, you’re trapped in Karl Marx’s “Labor Theory of Value,” which is actually a useful framework to understand the value creation process in some cases, but it breaks down in modern economies that are driven by computers, automation, and increasingly by AI.

Ironically, you parenthetically excluded the most important concept that would allow you to escape Marx’s paradigm: AI and robots! :slight_smile:

I recommend that you take some time to think about the impact of AI on human economies; then integrate that understanding with the multi-causal summary that I presented above, and I think you will eventually arrive at some similar conclusions.


#130

I think I understand what you’re saying here, but usually when people say an asset is “expensive” they mean it’s over-valued. That’s certainly not the case for ADA now or anytime on the foreseeable future. Can you elaborate a bit on what you mean?


#131

excluding AI and robots was useful only to make the motorbike example possible… but forget the motorbike… and think only in Working Hours.

If we abstract that much as you do and imagine the world where everything it is so depreciated and cars are given as candies… then anything materialistic will become like air today, basically free.

But money will still exist, because it is ultimately just a database to account about human output… noone knows what this output will be it could be just friendship, or jokes, or sex, or love… but still my question the one I was interested about was if the same effort went into a human output that nowadays is bought from $10k can one day be bought from 1 ADA…

but then I get that you guys got on a tangent and went parabolic with your thinking so nothing makes much sense any longer… I was still trying to think in this dimension.

but again I can appreciate the scale of your point of view… I think it is just out of topic in this thread.


#132

Nope, that’s not what I said at all. And contrary to what many people think, Black Swans are the rule, not the exception. The “Value-at-Risk” models that the banking sector used to evaluate risk ignored this reality, which is why 2008 smacked the world with a dose of reality. (There are many things I could say about this, but I’ll leave that for another day.)

What humans perceive as a “Black Swan” is actually an illusion created by their ignorance of all the systemic events occurring within an unstable system at any point in time. I alluded to this in Catastrophic Collapse: How to Visualize It?

Respectfully, if you can escape the reductionist framework, everything I’ve said should become much easier to understand and you won’t need to make any more inaccurate assumptions about what I actually said. :slight_smile:


#133

I appreciate what you say, expecially Black swan as rule is an intriguing concept.

I just think you are talking about turbine engine when I was simply asking you the closest bridge to get to the other side of the river back in 1700.

In this thread we were talking about speculation and if ADA can make us rich as bitcoin did few years ago.

perhaps you should also try to listen and then should become much easier for you to understand and you won’t need to make any more inaccurate assumptions about what I actually said.

Just because I want here to discard you theory of the Catastrophic Collapse does not mean that in other context/thread I can surely understand it and also agree to it.

As I said I think here we were talking in terms of if the current state of things does not collapse.

no offence but you are fantasying too much on your enlightened vision of the system to collapse that you go around haughtly thinking of how can those other miserable not be so enlightedted as you, not to see the possible collapse… stop behaving like an expert, there are just many views and if the collapse you picture is possible doesn’t mean it is the truth, there are no Orange swans rules after all.


#134

Sorry you were offended. That obviously is never my intention. It’s OK for people to be inspired and contribute to our community in whatever way they can. It’s also OK for people to disagree with you and respectfully ask you to stop making false assumptions about their words and intentions.

You don’t have to make personal attacks. Good luck in all your endeavors.


#135

that’s it! I sold all of my ADAs, I get it is just all a community of hippies

just kidding


#136

Thanks for the upbeat chat. Back to work…

:grinning:


#137

@ADALove I’m sorry … clearly like you say , cardano is undervalued. I meant to say , that it’s value potential is extremely high.

I just misused words and apologize for confusion.


#138

I’m taking an unscientific approach, but using observation of other crypto growth. I think $10,000 USD = 1 ADA can be achieved around 2022. Why? Exponential growth in value vs. the USD. The major cryptos seem to be growing in value by a factor of 10 year-to-year against the value of a USD. As more people from across the world convert their money into ADA and other cryptos, this will cause the USD to decrease in value. At some point the Federal Reserve will need to tie the USD to a blockchain to curb what will be a massive rise in inflation in the US, if cryptos are adopted as a widely accepted, or more preferable method of payment than a USD.


#139

I will come back in 10 years to re-read this thread and see how visionary people were.

It is a shame that we can’t have the Reddit RemindMe! 10 years bot here on Discourse :slight_smile:


#140

I’m sure we will have that functionality much sooner than you expect :wink: