Realistic Price Predictions 2018 2019 2020


#1

I am genuinely curious to hear some of the more knowledgeable crypto investors realistic predictions for ADA in the upcoming years.

Furthermore instead of throwing out blind numbers I am curious as to what events in the roadmap you feel will lead to an increase in ADA value longterm? If you feel confident in speculating I would love to hear your guesses on what specific milestones being accomplished will be met with in regards to a % based price differentiation.

Good example and I am only throwing out a random number as an example (Not a speculation) ADA will increase 61% following the impending launch of the proof of stake system being developed now.

Perhaps even more so do you feel there will be a certain point where the price is not beholden to both the BTC and ETH markets?


#2

Disclaimer: All of this is speculation

40 % after shelley
125 % after coguen
ADA gets paired to fiat
350 % after basho
650 % after voltaire
I only use ada now for all my financial transactions and became my own bank.
950 % as more and more people see the possibilities.
We are now the top tier blockchain and transaction speeds reach insane tx/sec as even more people join the network.
1600 % we start to implement this blockchain in the democratic process of our governments to vote securely on laws.
3700 % other governments follow
9900 % we are the government now
15000 % peace on earth and a united humanity.
250000 % we are the first payment system on Mars, drinking gin and tonics with daddy Elon.

On topic: realistically I think we can hit at least 500 % by 2020, a lot depends on how fast ADA gets paired to FIAT.


#3

What’s stopping ada getting paired to fiat ?


#4

“250000 % we are the first payment system on Mars, drinking gin and tonics with daddy Elon.”

-> This was my plan all along, Using my crypto-profits to ask Daddy Elon for my golden ticket.

On topic: My feeling has been that, realistically nothing will get to Bitcoin height again as the spread of coins will continue to grow as everyone tries to make money. However over the long run, I feel it could meet Ethereum prices if all goes well.

One of major factors affecting price is amount of total currency. Bitcoin has only 21 Million total coins, Cardano has 31 Billion total coins, including the development fund - most quote the 26 Billion without the development fund. A big difference that will naturally keep Cardanos price lower.

Another issue will be Ethereum beating Cardano to market with a dual layer blockchain, because Ethereum is established, they are technically ahead of the game - however they don’t have a peer reviewed society of believers behind them.

As for road map predictions, most traders will by the hype and sell the news. So as updates or announcements near - prices will go up because investors buy the hype, then they sell before the release to make profit just incase the news is bad. Basic trading strategy. This of course leads to instability and FOMO/FUD investors pullout adding to further instability. In terms of percentages its hard to predict, it all depends on the amount of hype and what the actual update means, then the total amount of money poured into the coin based on those 2 things. So if you hear a lot of positive news around the time of an update, theres a good chance of a big spike. In July there are meant to be ATMs in Japan loaded with Cardano, I think that will draw a lot of attention and generate a good growth spike.

If you go purely off prices of other coins, worse coins have reached prices in the tens, even hundreds per coin. So there’s still plenty of money to be made long term.


#6

Can’t wait for that new government to form. Please sign me up on the blockchain as its first citizen. How do we call its citizens? :slight_smile:

Not sure if it’s healthy for Ada as a currency if it reaches insane gains though. Deflation is being discussed in another thread and they have great points.


#7

I think it’s quite likely there will be some stumbling blocks along the way. The roadmap goals are ambitious, and If they miss a milestone, the price will dip, all the new people will panic sell, and the we could see the price going way down for a while. There will always be more volatile ( and profitable) coins that tempt ada holders to throw their ada into whatever is taking off at the moment. I think most intelligent investors here are hodling for the new government, and global currency in 2025, and not to get rich in 2018 or 2019. Personally I’m investing half my money into Cardano for the philosophy and potential behind this project, I’m doing it for the collective good, not for my own personal gain. Regardless of the price, I have no plans to withdraw anything for years. (I’m investing the other 50% of my portfolio in other altcoins for personal gain)

That said, I’d guess, if all goes well:

$5 in 2018
$50 in 2019
$100 in 2020


#8

Can’t wait “peace on earth and a united humanity.” :star_struck:


#9

I’m expecting.

$2+ EOY 2017
$5+ EOY 2018
$10+ EOY 2020

Ada is a safe bet, I see the price becoming relatively stable. One to tell your grandma.

For the long future 2025, anything is possible with this coin. It could well become a monster like apple or google.

It’s really not one to sell unless you really know what your doing, just buy a bit when you can, stick it in your wallet and forget about it.

There may will be some serious regret by people that bought ada but sold it for ‘nice profit’.

Equally ethereum should be held, that one will have its day as the super coin before too long also.


#10

To be honest, if any moneys I already put into Ada multiply out nicely, I would probably just use it to start up another tech, perhaps with eMurgo’s help, to do something useful for everyone… sulking on beaches, while sipping rum tends to get too old very fast.


#11

Paddington, I cant disagree with any of your concise post, but would you shed any light on the extent of your EV’s for the coin’s market price relate to your own estimated value (intrinsic , maximal, of the coin, versus how much you perceive as coming from speculators or bubbleness attribute . I guess i mean to ask, do you feel that once it becomes paired to fiat , that the market itself will find and stabilize it’s intrinsic value?


#12

First nice post @Bullishdong, question though why do you think ADA needs to pair with fiat?
Seeing that all fiat eventually goes to its intrinsic value of zero, why would ADA couple to nothing?


#13

It needs to , because it is accepting of value propositions in it’s nature . It is in the process of “meeting” fiat at the jungle market frontier that is the exchanges …

Or to put it in a different context , why does a stock market company seek to be valued in dollars? Because they want to accept dollars to be in the room, they want to accept investors credibility in that recognized form.


#14

Hi Chainomatic, good question. I think it’s important that we define intrinsic value first.

In finance, intrinsic value refers to the value of a company, stock, currency or product determined through fundamental analysis without reference to its market value. It is also frequently called fundamental value.

It is ordinarily calculated by summing the discounted future income generated by the asset to obtain the present value. It is worthy to note that this term may have different meanings for different assets.

Present value, also known as present discounted value, is the value of an expected income stream determined as of the date of valuation. The present value is always less than or equal to the future value because money has interest-earning potential, a characteristic referred to as the time value of money, except during times of negative interest rates, when the present value will be more than the future value.

Time value can be described with the simplified phrase, “A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow”. Here, ‘worth more’ means that its value is greater. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow because the dollar can be invested and earn a day’s worth of interest, making the total accumulate to a value more than a dollar by tomorrow.

The reason it’s important to pair ADA with FIAT is to serve as a bridge for growth, as the intrinsic value of a dollar becomes less, one could argue it would be smart to exchange it for something that does have intrinsic value. And as long as the dollar is the world reserve currency, it will have some intrinsic value: because the big boys have decided that oil will be bought with dollars (hence the name petro-dollar) . Being the world reserve currency is what keeps the world stable in a the sense that all countries have a need for it to fuel economies. China may not like America but they buy a lot of dollars to exchange for oil (this is the fundamental analysis).

Now if we ask our selves what is the intrinsic value of bitcoin and ethereum we see that it’s the promise of a secure fast blockchain network and currency that can handle transactions, is self-sustaining and interoperable with the economic networks that are already in place. Yet it seems to me that right now these two only have an exchange value, you can exchange it for a next generation blockchain (ada) that has a greater chance of achieving this intrinsic value.

Economically speaking the greater the intrinsic value ADA would achieve, the less intrinsic value btc and eth will have. So it makes more sense to exchange petro dollars for ADA than for btc and eth. I would like to add that the perception of value by most of the people is how much goods and services can I exchange for x amount.

The fastest way to get people calculating prices in ADA (something that Charles has mentioned he would like to see) is to first pair them together. So you can easily exchange them.

When I was a young kid, I calculated prices in BEF (Belgian francs) Europe came along and said, hey kid from now on you will pay in EUR, it took me 9 years to forget about BEF and calculate everything in EUR. Till this day you can still exchange BEF for EUR. Even though you cannot pay with francs anywhere.

I hope my analogy made sense, and i believe my answer should be placed under scrutiny.

Cheers!


#15

saludos me gustaría saber donde se guardan las monedas de manera segura gracias


#16

Holà Juan, tenés que descargar Daedalus en https://daedaluswallet.io/#download :slight_smile:


#17

At a simpler level, I think it will pop a little (perhaps ~20%) when BitTrex and Binance re-open to new registrations. At the moment, no “new money” can get in at all- substantially all trading activity is constrained to those who already have accounts…

Long term, the spread between ETH and ADA market caps’ is looking a lot more realistic now with ETH higher and ADA lower, at 1/7th, which gives it the chance to form a solid base after the recent run-up.

I think this is a useful metric to observe in terms of defining trading ranges, (subject to the usual BTC/ETH harmonic vs. Alts), and I would expect it to gradually converge with milestone progress, adoption, the emergence of new use-cases, and improvements in FIAT conversion and exchange coverage.

I think the recent spikes in all the Altcoins represented a shift in the public consciousness of Crypto in general, with Alts as a class being the beneficiary of new interest, and the wider public perception that there was more to it than BTC, and that took things too far too quickly, taking all sorts of Altcoin initiatives of varying quality with it. Now, the wheat will gradually get sorted from the chaff, and I would expect ADA to be a beneficiary of that.

Longer term, the “best of class” Alts will consistently outperform BTC, and more gradually encroach on ETH. I think the crossover with ETH won’t be until 2020

In the medium term, progress against milestones is needed to recreate solid underlying momentum. The various exchange wallet issues have taken the shine off a bit as well, and created a FUD vulnerability, but resolving these will result in this fading into the collective memory quite quickly.


#18

Right, exchanges.
Come on peer-to-peer exchanges.

Some scrutiny - my thoughts and experiences:

What has intrinsic value?
Fiat? - No fiat is 100% debt, everyone is forced into debt creation.
Value of a company? - Some, but definitely not all.
Stock? Again most companies perhaps but then at what level, common or preferred.
Product determined through fundamental analysis - Ah yes fundamental analysis, let’s take that one for a dance.

Given 10 students all of whom attended the same university, attended the same classes, upon graduating all work at the same firm and are asked to rate, through fundamental analysis, a company.

After they hand in their perspectives what do we find? differing opinions, sometimes wildly differing opinions.
How can that be? Given that they all learned the same things, in the same way, from the same school.

A good read, slightly off topic that popped into my head:
The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve

I get what you are saying @Bullishdong but after working at a large investment firm the scuttlebutt was academics are hired because clients like seeing diplomas, especially if they attended the same school. A depressing reality.

Absolutely.
It is a treacherous quagmire though seeing that they can change the rules.

Mostly imperialism forced fundamental analysis.
This is changing though:
January 18, 2018, Chinese buyers will be locking in oil prices in their local currency!

Yes. According to some of my old colleagues, they have been waiting for a “real” blockchain to transverse the markets, Cardano and Tezos are the only ones they are investing in.

Old habits, I bet I have more than you. I’m very opinionated, stating the obvious.

All of you, @Accelerandant, @MartinMKD, @Paddington, @Chris28, @XZact, @javaronin, @Crash047, @Ken_Yd and @Psycidelicos make Cardano.

Cheers,
Jonathan


#19

That’s one of the greatest book on the topic of how the Fed does currency creation - in a nutshell, “out of thin air” (in a manner of speaking).

The USD fiat’s strength is relative to the degree to which a debtor is able to repay his or her debt. If everyone repaid their debts on time and demand for new debt remains more or less constant, in theory there would be no need to print new fiat - the same fiat could be re-loaned, over and over again. This would make the fiat ‘like gold’, it would be a constant supply and its value would increase over time.

The reality however is vastly different. People do not repay their debts on time, or sometimes at all. Demands for new debt also isn’t constant, it varies, and typically as we’ve seen, goes up over time as population increases and new business (products, services, etc) is created. This is how we end up printing more fiat to satisfy new loan requests and add that fiat to the circulation, thus weakening the fiat’s (e.g. USD) value.

Then when demand for debt dwindles, but old debts are being repaid, the need for new fiat decreases and suddenly the banks are flush with cash in the face of low demand for it… Then Mr Greenspan or whomever says, “hey, we can loan you at 1% instead of 5%, why don’t you come get some?” And they then try to re-circulate the repaid fiat they now have sitting in their bank safes to others who might be enticed to get a new loan at lower rates…

And on and on it goes. It’s an imprecise way of controlling the money supply since one could not possibly track how many dollars are in circulation, who will and does repay versus who doesn’t…etc.

To sum up - it’s not there’s something wrong with “fiat money”… or the Fed… it’s that there’s something wrong with people - they want more than they can repay, sometimes even unintentionally, and when you have this kind of a breakdown, the “patching up”/clean up of the messes people leave behind is to print more money, thus slowly devaluing the value of the dollar (about 1-3% on average per year).

Now, is this good or bad? Can this be handled with 45 billion Ada’s or 45 quadrillion lovelaces? Beats the crap out of me - I’m not that good or prophetic to know. I can sort of qualify the “problem” of why fiat is problematic… and I also think a LOT of these problems can be dealt with by doing everything electronically, via Ada/Cardano, even if it ends up being inflationary. I mean, when was the last time the people have had the ability to track every penny and every dollar as they move through various hands?

This is what Ada and Cardano could potentially provide. And it’s much bigger than Cardano, IOHK, etc - eventually, if this explodes the way I hope it does, control of the minting process may have to be surrendered to government (i.e. the people). How this is going to look, is anyone’s guess… but the fundamentals being put in place right now, IMHO, assure this kind of a possible future.

Eventually, with Cardano and Ada being omnipresent, one could in theory hold everyone’s balls to the fire :slight_smile:, because of what Ada offers… correctness above all, followed by transparency, accountability, pseudonymity, performance, etc.


#20

Nah, that will only happen after Jesus Christ’s second coming, but I’ll settle for oversight over all money in existence between then and now. :wink:


#21

I see all of this ending on truth, real metrics that we can trust, example:
Cardano Blockchain’s First Use Case: Proof of University Diplomas in Greece

I know I’m off topic @Psycidelicos sorry, Realistic Price Predictions in USD:
2018 - 7.00 to 12.00
2019 - 14.00 to 250.00
2020 - 78.00 to 1,500.00