Decision time for BTC and ADA

Look at the bounce at the $40k support level, despite the wick below the 200D SMA($46K)

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There are two paths now:

  1. we hold the 200D, and break up $52k (21w EMA) in a few weeks,
    OR
  2. we break down $40K and enter a 3+ months bear market

IF case 1 happens, then I still expect a $5+ ADA in 2022.

IF case 2 happens, then I see a bottom of $.50-$.80 for ADA

Thoughts?

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Sorry, but I don’t believe in TA. Not even a single bit.

You have every right to do that, for me TA has made me some very good profits over the years so not gonna give it up :slight_smile:

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I expect ADA to resemble the value of the effort, development, quality of the projects and all what is said from CH…At this time it doesn’t appear to be so. As an investor i expect the 5$ something completely normal price for the hipe of the Defi etc. if not there are other that deliver in value and projects.

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yes, on the long-term $ADA will keep growing regardless of market conditions, exactly because fundamentally it’s an amazing ecosystem.

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Damage control CH. Investors are going away. The one who bought between 1-3$. If projects are so good this should not be happening… What. Are we in XRP situation?

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those who went away weren’t meant to stay anyway for the long run. Cardano had much bigger crashes than this one. Did the project stop? Did the developers left? Did (most) of the initial backers left? The answer is no.

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Dear John…Georg I hope you are right… I go down with the ship. Thats why I am critical. Value needs to resemble the hard work as I am a buyer not a seller.

I understand the problem with currencies and crypto-currencies especially with regard to fundamental analysis, but why do you believe that the past development would have an impact to the future development?

Why do you believe that? As a matter of fact IOG has just showed, that they can and implement parameter changes, when necessary; furthermore the first DEXes are entering public testnet within the next couple of days.

ok. lets see, as it should have an impact on the value of ADA. Quality = value.

Hi George,

I am not very familiar with the TA, I am not sure that it can be reliable since the crypto currencies is like an unregulated stock exchange so EVERYTHING IS VALID AND EVERYTHING IS NOT VALID.

I strongly believe that the markets will effect ALL cryptos no matter what. So an analysis on that will be the first step for me. Second step is the LEGAL frameworks and how the SEC will respond to cryptos.

In the long run though unless all of the above are REALLY DISSASTEROUS the CARDANO project will thrive and expect to sell your ADAs above 10 USD in a few years.

I prefer to have as much as possible and then get the rewards from staking.

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In a few years? If you are a younger generation then 10 + is not a problem. But older generation putting 10k or 20k at 1-3$ price? ADA is down now and it will take time to go to ATH. I like what they are doing but value is not reflecting the hipe. In Cardano they should adress the undervalued ADA. Telling that we are obsessed with the value is not the right approach. Value of ADA is an important aspect of the success of Cardano. or am I wrong.

Hi Alexandre,
You make a very good point that most traders and even long-term investors tend to neglect.

The crypto market is still very well tied and correlated to both the traditional financial markets, and any upcoming regulation…

Even though I believe regulation is less of an issue for the time being (for several reasons that I can analyse later), the fate of the stock markets will definitely affect us in more ways that we can imagine. If we face a financial meltdown in 2022-2023 (which I think at this point has a high probability) then we should expect a similar crypto meltdown which can last for quite a long time

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yes, you are right, but I would say the long-term price of $ADA may affect adoption. Short-mid term price can’t change much. Projects who are working on Cardano won’t just jump ships because of short-term volatility, especially once the whole market is crashing

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While this is true - as always - IMO the price can change quickly - like as fast it can go down it can go up. Can be at 3 in a couple of days. That’s a difference to the stock market. It is much more sentiment driven.

IMO it won’t be a financial meltdown this time. It’s the TSLA’s and FAANG that is seriously overvalued and has to come down. And it will affect other SPs in the process. But as soon as the prices are back in balance with fundamentals the market will calm down as well.

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I miss some more marketing and promotional activities from Cardano…Everyone is using those tools with big success. Using famous actors, influential individuals, scientists in super made promotional videos brings attention. Not to say you give the strong message how committed you are to the whole project… where is that? Since September there was no communication on that level…Thats for me damage control.

How many of these coins are getting dumped just to show investment lost for the upcoming tax season? If that’s a thing, it’s a thing, it’s got to be part of this thing. I should probably whip up some Dr. Seuss style, mix it into this investment talk LOL.

tax and dead that much is certain.