Generation 1,2,3,... blockchains and where they are heading

English General Discussions
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Hi Everyone,
I’m excited for the upcoming milestone of Cardano: Shelley

I was quite active in the crypto trading world in 2016-7, but since then and especially over the last 18mth or so, I found it more and more challenging to follow the ins and outs of all the different projects, and I resisted becoming a fanboy of anyone project in particular. In fact I found it amusing, and even slightly annoying at now splintered the community, which I joined back at the start was quite homogeneous, has evolved.

I am of a strong belief that due to the overwhelming momentum of network effect of national fiat currencies, in particular the big ones that the raw and unrefined crypto world would remain an amusement, a playground. It is still treated as such by the most serious players who are too intellectually ossified to recognise the value and any alternative.

So it is my presumption that the success of cryptos as REAL financial instruments for the future are directly relative to the failure of national fiat currencies.

As a short tangent, Satoshi indicated this in his genesis block back in 2009.

So I will wrap up this post with an attempt to divine the future as a longshot invester would do, while avoiding hyperbole.
If the self-destructive trajectory of fiat currencies, and their interdependent systems continues, and no viable challenger enters the space, then cryptos, lead by Bitcoin, but not excluding a large handful of 2nd, 3rd, … gen cryptos, will reward early adopters with staggering success. It could even be the creation of a new überclass of citizens. (not necessarily a good thing)

Just to put an equal share of bitcoin into the hands of very person on earth would amount to only 0.0025 Bitcoin each. (21mill / 7.8bill)

So if you hold more than 0.1 bitcoin today (about USD 920), in a future such as this, you are 400 times richer than the average person.

A stupid game with numbers you may think, but this is how early adopter investors think when analyzing risk/reward ratios.
Either lose USD1k, or become 400times richer than the average future citizen.

It would be fun to engage with you guys in some more esoteric projection thinking on how this will play out on the big stage of humanity. There is so much promise, but the road ahead seems beset by such difficult terrain.

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@Mastercore

Thank you for raising this very meaningful topic: The Future of Blockchain and Cryptocurrency

Lets begin with the recognition that all currencies have only two attributes: First is the ability to transact value and secondarily to hold wealth . The first part is simply the function of moving goods and services. If it were easy to buy everyday things with BitCoin or ADA, like food, housing and transportation, then they would actually be functioning as currencies; carrying the flow of goods and services which are like currents in the ocean of an economy. This is the Utility factor that must be addressed.

When, and only when, a particular currency has a high utility it can also function to hold wealth, but only if the flows (currents) are relatively predictable. Steady demand for a particular medium of exchange (a currency) makes it safe to hold over time. If demand for it fluctuates wildly, your wealth could disappear in an instant. This is the Stability factor that must be considered.

If we then measure every currency by these two factors we have the basis for making intelligent decisions about how to use them, or not. If we make the generalized comparison between fiat and crypto currencies, we can easily see the answer to your question of what the future looks like for cryptocurrency in general. The US Dollar (on a global scale) has reigned supreme in both categories (utility and stability) for decades. BitCoin after a decade of history is just now gaining some utility. Ethereum (because of smart contracts and dApps) has promised utility, but has proven hackable and therefore unsafe for real-world use cases. Cardano is raising the bar miles above any previous prospects for the utility of a cryptocurrency because of its Bedrock Robustness, but it has yet to be proven in the real world.

Now we get to the exciting part. With the implementation of Goguen the development of utility will begin. Remember that the utility factor of any currency is in its ability to move goods and services. This is all about Merchants and Manufactures being able to use the currency in day to day operations. For this to happen there must be a Utilitarian layer built upon the Cardano Bedrock Blockchain. This is all about the mechanics and logistics of getting groceries, paying rent and buying entrainment, etc.

Once the real-world I/O of ADA is made easy, the next hurdle is the Entrepreneurial Social-layer. This is the reality of Humans from all around the Globe forming Collectives that perform business functions. The reality of DAOs. The DAOist Enclave Project on GitHub is building this layer.

The final consideration is the Urgency factor. There just isn’t a motive to move to something new (unknown – risky) as long as the old (familiar – safe) thing is working. When the Fiats fail we need to be ready with our every-day-useability. THE DEATH OF FIAT CURRENCY AND CONTROL (AN INEVITABILITY) will be an interesting article for anyone wishing to understand the fate of Fiats.

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@ Timberlane

Firstly utility in any form of money is a function of adoption. Others may call it the network effect. Once a network gets started, like an engine, it gains momentum and warms up and reaches an optimal operation condition.
This is when eventually its function as unit of account appears.
These networks can be very difficult to stop once started.

As you point out, utility in a “functional and technical sense” is already light years ahead of the antiquated legacy payment systems, but adoption is still far lagging. Why?

Well as long as there are no or almost no way to spend your ADA or BTC or ETH, then they are hodled, looking forward to a time when they can be spent, used. This hodling does not progress adoption in any meaningful functional way, but it does attract the first use case of any asset, speculation!

As an economic tool, it appears to be a zero sum game when it comes to fiat vs cryptos. Since fiat is supported by the state, and the state is able to conjure national security concerns to stretch over its monopoly over fiat, and claims a monopoly over the legal use of deadly force, we seem to be in a dark corner with our precious cryptos.

But as a fellow hodler, I can see clear writing on the wall. My arguments can be summed up like this:

  • Pure Fiat money is an experiment itself about to reach its 50th birthday, and a pretty poorly designed one at that. Its real inception was via an act of desperation by the Nixon administration in 1971, and a less auspicious start to a currency there has never been.
  • Fiat was never meant to last for ever, its demise is programmed into it. Its flaws become progressively more obvious, and the debt underpinning them is exploding in an exponential rate. Very shortly it will be impossible to ignore the gorilla in the room. The end game is upon us.
  • If authorities, MSM, and educational providers were honest in teaching us the workings of our currencies, and the global money standards, we would have rioting within hours. The real system is a deeply inequitable system which is very clearly rigged against the majority. I believe it is not hyperbolic to say it is a subtle form of societal slavery.
  • Bitcoin, as a bold experiment on the largest and most open computer network mankind has ever experienced, has shown that by an assembly of existing software technologies (cryptography), and harnessing the game theory aspects of a peerless network of incentivized actors, and a few special herbs and spices, has created a pure, perpetual, and open form of value transfer (i.e. money’s prime purpose).
  • Even though it may have been rough around the edges in its first years, it was lovingly nurtured by a dedicated group of very smart people who, on the whole also saw the glaring inequities in our current fiat system.
  • The Bitcoin networks’ network effect is on the cusp, if not already past the point of being unstoppable.
  • Its open nature supercharged a frenzy of experiments and research. Progress on top of Bitcoins initial ideas has been blistering. Far faster than anything any government or legacy financial institution could dream of achieving.
  • We are entering a new era of revolution. Currencies as we know them will not survive. Every human will face the same conundrum, if currency can no longer act as a “store” for my time and effort, what will. Most will instinctively bet on the strongest, fastest horse in this race.
  • All fiat backers can do now is to extend and pretend the system they benefit from another day at a time. The day of reckoning which some of them knew would one day arrive is almost upon them. All they can now do is use their powers to deflect attention and adoption from Cryptos.

All this put together is music to the ears of asymmetrical contrarian investors. We are those that, with open eyes are ready to catch the once in a lifetime game changing opportunities. Bitcoin has already made many of us, and, along with its brethren is likely to push fortunes again to hardly imaginable levels.

Historians will look back at 2020 in wonder and fascination. We are truly living through amazing times ladies and gentlemen.

Just my 2cents worth

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I wanted to elaborate on my thoughts behind this comment:

The real authorities behind our financial and monetary system are people we do not know, or if we know them, we do not connect or comprehend their real role in the system.

These people knew that the Fiat system had a shelf life, and they could also see the signs of fatigue and failure far more clearly than any of us could.
I have little doubts that they have been very busy for some time to design the successor to their precious fiat.

What they will come up with will be another smoke and mirrors game which will embed their privileges into its architecture. If they succeed, we can look forward to another 2-3 generations of subjugation under the invisible yoke of debt.

There is a window of opportunity opening. Its aperture is the only chance cryptos have to take over, to temper or displace the elite oligarchs in our societies.

A utopian dream is seems, but all ideas are born from dreams. Dreams of a fairer and better world.

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@Mastercore

My friend, I am excited because of your passion! Please let us consider the Adoption of crypto in a very practical sense.

“Amazing times” indeed, my friends. But which of us will actually write that history?

We are … “ready to catch the once in a lifetime game-changing opportunities” is a bold statement.

Is this valid? I ask because it takes participation not just speculation to seize the day (carpe diem). Do you believe there are people who will take action to make crypto the primary form of monetary currency around the Globe?

I do! And, I am looking to gather them together in a Collective effort to move the Global Economy onto Cardano. Anyone who wishes to participate can please message me directly.

We need to start by collaborating in a hive-mind kind of way to solve the really big challenges like how to operate as a Human Collective (DAO), without centralized governance. All of the dominance and corruption that fiats have, as you point out, is because of centralization.

I agree completely. Amassing piles of Alts, hoping that one of them “goes to the moon” is not investing, it’s gambling. An investment is not just taking a position and waiting for someone else to add value. A real investment is the process of adding value. So if you are not building Cardano, are not Staking on the network, or creating a tool that makes Cardano useful in people’s every-day lives, are you vested in the opportunity? IOHK has added value to the Cryptosphere, are we going to make it useful?

Let’s dream together and turn those dreams into realities. Message me directly to begin the dialogue.
Thank you all.