I’m excited for the upcoming milestone of Cardano: Shelley
I was quite active in the crypto trading world in 2016-7, but since then and especially over the last 18mth or so, I found it more and more challenging to follow the ins and outs of all the different projects, and I resisted becoming a fanboy of anyone project in particular. In fact I found it amusing, and even slightly annoying at now splintered the community, which I joined back at the start was quite homogeneous, has evolved.
I am of a strong belief that due to the overwhelming momentum of network effect of national fiat currencies, in particular the big ones that the raw and unrefined crypto world would remain an amusement, a playground. It is still treated as such by the most serious players who are too intellectually ossified to recognise the value and any alternative.
So it is my presumption that the success of cryptos as REAL financial instruments for the future are directly relative to the failure of national fiat currencies.
As a short tangent, Satoshi indicated this in his genesis block back in 2009.
So I will wrap up this post with an attempt to divine the future as a longshot invester would do, while avoiding hyperbole.
If the self-destructive trajectory of fiat currencies, and their interdependent systems continues, and no viable challenger enters the space, then cryptos, lead by Bitcoin, but not excluding a large handful of 2nd, 3rd, … gen cryptos, will reward early adopters with staggering success. It could even be the creation of a new überclass of citizens. (not necessarily a good thing)
Just to put an equal share of bitcoin into the hands of very person on earth would amount to only 0.0025 Bitcoin each. (21mill / 7.8bill)
So if you hold more than 0.1 bitcoin today (about USD 920), in a future such as this, you are 400 times richer than the average person.
A stupid game with numbers you may think, but this is how early adopter investors think when analyzing risk/reward ratios.
Either lose USD1k, or become 400times richer than the average future citizen.
It would be fun to engage with you guys in some more esoteric projection thinking on how this will play out on the big stage of humanity. There is so much promise, but the road ahead seems beset by such difficult terrain.