No matter where you live, this Friday November 16, 2018, the weather will be amazing for us all. Have a great week, friends.
Hi Kevin, why? … what will happen?
Let us know Kevin!
Appropriately posted in Random section
may the gods hear you
Yesterday was nothing more than the pulling back of the sling shot, congratulations early investors. We will never see these floors again.
Glad I sold my kidney to buy more Ada!
Don’t let the past change your strategy from last time, market structure was different last year, we Will blow past all time highs. It will take a small breath ( this will be when people remember the last year and cash out or sell, but this in not the same structure from last year) then the targets for 5-10 years from now Will be realized in around the length of time of the last major retracement form the last all time highs.
It does zero good for the invested for the developers to make known of completions, or discoveries while market is in retracement. We will be hearing all the progress from this last year that has not been shared up to now. Dec will be a huge announcement month, mostly around the 15-30th. Dreams will be rewarded.
I am a nobody, I can’t see the UNFORSEEN future…
You’re right so far. The weather was great today at least where I live. Looking forward to seeing your other predictions come true!
The worst is complete, we will look back and see the 16th of November was the last day of floor buying. If you wanted to become more invested, we are in the last days of these prices.
I always used to get excited the last 3 hours before the last day of school
Well, right now -7.22% for the last 24h. And a new 2018 low reached. I like to hear what you say but I don’t believe that you know more than anyone of us. On what basis do you do your predictions?
I don’t blame you, and your correct I am just another one of us. I have only lived, breathed, and studied this for I don’t know how long. Every waking moment, for reasons and interest that are unrelated to this topic.
Simple answer, the “crowd” in this market follows the market leader. When there is a new market leader, the “crowd” will follow that market leader.
I am heavily invested with Cardano, I’m all ADA in my blood. With that being said, the is a new knight rising and BTC days are numbered as the market leader. I’m not talking months, I’m talking days. Btc has been a glue trap for too long. It is extremely inefficient, amongst a whole list of others which I would need a week to explain.
I guess all I’m saying to anyone who is not sure what is happening, DO NOT SELL!! I wish I could convince you to buy even more at these prices.
I didn’t need convincing but I’m glad to meet someone else who feels the same way.
Agree. I am buying more at these prices. Its like a cryptocurrency black Friday.
I too have big doubts about Bitcoin and every other coin which is based on proof of work. My doubts come from simple theoretical thoughts, please correct me if they are wrong: The costs for hardware, energy and rent for the mining stuff has to be paid somehow, so who pays for it? I think that by the miners always selling a part (the most part, or by now probably everything) of what they gain by mining, they create all the time some price pressure. This is no problem as long as there are more and more people coming into crypto but what happens when we reach a plateau where most people on earth are already cryptonized? I think that the selling pressure will continue and the mining costs reduce the market value (in average) by exactly the mining costs. So in my opinion, if we have two identical coins, one run by proof of work and one by proof of stake, the PoS coin will become more valuable over time. Furthermore, I have deep ethical concerns about that mining arms race and the waste of raw materials and energy. I don’t think that this can be sustainable for more than a short period of time.
What’s strange to me right now is that you can read everywhere that Craig Wrong is selling BCHABC, Roger Ver is selling BCHSV and both are selling BTC and this causes the recent price drop. But in this case these coins should lose most while others would keep more stable. But right now they are both at about -11%/24h while Cardano is at -16%, Monero -18%, VeChain -21%… So I don’t think that this is a good explanation for the current situation.
I have no personal opinion where the deepest price level is. As long as it is falling, I buy a little bit every month. And in five years from now I’ll have a look if it paid or not. And with Cardano I have a real good feeling in the five years range.
The perception that markets are efficient (or people know what they are buying for that matter) is misguided in this space. If you look across all trading pairs, they are affected by what happens to BTC.
There is no way you could find a rational explanation for this except for maybe the liquidity. Decoupling will come when we understand what we buy. For that to happen, institutional investors would have to come into the space. They are the ones with enough intellect and deep enough pockets to finance good research.
Until then, crypto markets will be run by herds of trigger happy sheep who are more likely to believe McAfee/Coindesk schilling than the voice of reason/sound fundamentals.
For the rest of us, Black Friday just gave us another reason to pick our future winners.
Institutional investing has been happening in crypto otc for several months. However, regardless of of that, the topic of btc and understanding that it is an amazing idea that was created to get built on and improved. The use case is simply not there outside of transferring wealth, and the price is set on absolutely nothing more than pure speculation. Now I’m not naive enough to think that Cardano’s ATH was also anything outside of speculation, however the important thing to take from that is market structure it created. Now some will say “wait wait wait-you think btc will be going to waste side because of speculation- what about its market structure”. Well there is market structure in exchanges, the only unknown is volume. As long as there is volume the structure continues to go along its path with impulses and retracements. There has been a massive sell off of BTC, even dormant wallets such as the one known for MT Gox hack, that held 100’s of thousands of BTC. In sept, that wallet liquidated into several other wallets and dumped. It wasn’t even a week after that alt coin markets started to see a breakout of the downward triangle and started us on this path we are at now. Any stock or crypto that in in an exchange follows the market structures, and the structures can and will one day breakdown. Its because the buyers and the sellers have dried up.
In the case of BTC, what makes it so scary for me is that when mass population take a look into the massive amounts of energy that is consumes just to keep it alive the masses will demand and even protest against it to where the policy makers will have to make a stand on it just as they have on fuel efficiency of the vehicles we drive. I’m gonna stop myself right there because there is so much information we can discuss that can go on for hours into days.
Now more onto crypto( means nothing more than secure) currency, why does the world need it? Or rather why would it even be driven(created??) by several governments. Take a look at the market around us. Better yet take a look at the world debt clock, US 94%++ GDP in dept in US DOLLARS.
So let me get this right, I color a paper, sell it to you. Burrow it from you, make more and repeat. I MAKE THIS PAPER AS NEEDED. There will be a point that I don’t care the value of the paper, actually want it to be decreased. Because its not the value I owe but the amount of the dollar I owe. I would literally be robbing you of your resources by convincing you to believe in my paper in return to trade it for your resources.
LONG story short, we are at the exact tipping point. Sorry I didn’t want to get started… I’m trying.
Markets are efficient, they are defacto efficient. That is what you are seeing now, that is why this was never surprising - it is correcting the the overvaluation.
Sure we can debate if momentary mispricing is an inefficiency, I dont believe it is at all - it is just part of the mechanism. The true price is rarely hit but it will always average out true price and swing between overvaluation and undervaluation.
What is going on in the crypto market is one of the most beautiful market mechanics, it is EXTREMELY efficient that you see all coins being repriced together is a actual sign of the efficiency. It is truely like magic. That even if 99.99% of traders dont know what is going on, it still magicly works and that is because of supply and demand. It is never about perception or beliefs in the end.
You say there is no rational explanation that we are affected by BTC and that is just your lack of perception.
BTC and all Cryptos are the same asset class at this point - 90% of new coins dont expand the total market cap. If these coins were not there that valuation would just have gone to BTC instead. You have to see it all as a giant creature, instead of separate creatures when it comes to valuation.
There are two metrics. Coins stealing shares of the total pie from each other (zero sum) and then there is the giant pie of the asset class valuation - most of this is priced for being a monetary asset.
If BTC goes down and it is not because other coins increased, that means the pie is getting smaller, the entire pie is being revalued. We are not following BTC, we are part of the same pie. But there is also another effect, that BTC going down based on decreased valuation of the pie, being the main project in the market cast repricing on the entire field because most of the pricing of the remaining takes ground on BTC being able to be a success.
This is why you see repricing across the board - this is an asset class - no winner has been chosen (if there will be one) so you cannot separate the projects for the main pricing of the monetary aspect. Imagine 50 horses being in a race for x reward, each horse will be asserted some kind of value to win the race according to its prospects. If you change the x (reward) you change all the metrics going into each horses price and if you change the amount of horses, the horses that was excluded that valuation now goes to the remaining horses and vice-verca if you add horses.
All the money that went into alt-coins would have gone into BTC instead had they not been created, they are all part of the same marketcap and bubble. Instead of increasing BTCs market cap, the market cap was expanded through the creation of new coins, but in the end it is mainly the same market cap.
You find this in stocks too, yes, you have individual stocks, but a large part of the valuation of an individual company is based on a global (risk/reward aka. expected return pricing of the asset class stocks) based on supply and demand, and that risk/reward pricing will be present in all stocks at once. This is why you often see stocks follow each other even though completely separate companies. What is being repriced is the macro risk/reward metric and not the individual stocks but because a huge chunk of a individual companies pricing is based on risk/reward metric you see the repricing done at once and of course there are more finer nuances as the appetite of stocks and more macro economical conditions, but they are priced into the metric.
But at the end of the day, individual stocks are priced based on a huge chunk of Its own fundamental intrinsic value, and that is where it separates from Crypto at this point. But the same mechanism that operates in the stock market is what operates in crypto, as it is an inherent market mechanic.
Decoupling is a myth - it is only an illusion where you are taking shares of the crypto market cap from other coins. Which yes, can result in a increasing price in a overall decreasing market but it will never decouple of the monetary pricing (x reward) or demand based pricing.
If BTC goes to 0 it will shave of probably 99.99% of ADAs price because there will no longer be a pricing based on coins can have value based on no demand except for monetary demand. Which I already know personally is not possible, but the market doesn’t know this yet. The same speculation most of ADAs price is built on. That ship would be obviously proven to the market is wrong and repricing ensues. I have always said BTCs real worth is 0, but that does not mean any crypto-project is doomed, I have already written extensively why ADA can be different (but also why it at this stage it is not)
and this is without even going into trading pars and BTC and ETH being the main liquidity of other coins, has an increased effect, but even if we exclude that part, everything of the above in this post still holds true.
Btw I apologize I never got back to you on the banking debate - I might go back to it one day when I have some time. Yeah you are partly right about it, there is just one thing missing from the equation and that is the tiers of capital.
That’s one reason why I moved from FIAT to value investments like ADA.
Just for history: Bitcoin Cash right now: -44% in 24 h. Congratulations, Craig and Roger!
Hi @jb455! good to see you are still lurking around!
The conceptual foundation of efficient markets, traces its roots back to Efficient Markets Hypothesis. In basic terms it postulates that “price is right and there is no free lunch”.
Well, let me tell you that this is by far not the truth. There is a huge debate in financial circles about the efficacy of EMH and whether portfolio managers should be bound by its principles.
For one thing I do not accept volatility as a true measure of risk as it lumps both upside and downside into one mathematically-convenient indicator. Overall, I think EMH was accepted because it was a neat theory that could “explain” something chaotic as capital markets.
There is another theory that attempts to provide a more realistic (in my view) explanation of market dynamics, pricing and value discovery. It’s called Adaptive Market Hypothesis.. It takes into consideration our evolutionary predispositions.
This I agree with! But if you think the true price lies between peaks and troughs, then you can’t state that markets are efficient. By definition efficiency means all the public (maybe even private, in case of crypto) information is reflected in the price.
I just don’t think that is possible. What the price of ADA reflects at this point, is just a market dynamic between supply and demand plus its ties to BTC due to the crypto market structure. Gyrations in the markets are better explained by the human behavior within the context of AMH.
What makes you think that crypto is a separate asset class? More importantly, apart from enabling secure transmission of value, do you see any other similarities between BTC and ADA?
One is a pure currency (more like an inefficient, one trick pony with a huge market recognition), the other is a platform that could actually generate value [read my report in the lounge on how exactly that happens:) ].
These are two different assets. If you imagine a venn diagram between BTC and ADA, the overlapping part would be the currency use case for ADA, but it is much more than that.
Why should a tiny portion of Cardano’s function dictate 99% of its returns?
The value of BTC may be tied more closely to its forks (which add a flavor to it ) but I don’t agree that the myriad of alt-coins with differing protocols, consensus mechanisms, market structure and value propositions could be lumped together. From a fundamentals point of view that doesn’t make sense.
Stocks follow each other on a macro basis because of the Fed’s monetary policy. If there is a rate hike, it increases the discount rate on all the assets, which in turn, reduces the discounted future cash flows for each and every kind of asset. Fed’s policies mostly affect asset classes that have clear cash flows attached to them, most notably, bonds.
Their impact on alternatives/commodities (currencies, gold, oil, sugar, crops) is limited as there is no fundamental relationship between the fed and these assets. Ex: A factory wouldn’t base its purchasing plan of its commodities because the Fed raised interest rates 25bps, but may do so if the demand for its output changes.
This is why alternatives/commodities play a huge role in diversifying portfolio risks. Similarly, the fact that BTC is down (because of hash wars) has no fundamental bearing on Cardano as it has nothing to do with hash rates. If the market realized that you could sabotage a POW based crypto with just 30% of hash power, this information in no way changes the risk/return profile of Cardano which is POS based. ADA is not exposed to the same risks.
No worries at all. It’s always good to have a healthy debate. It helps me understand how others see the world and makes my thought process more nuanced.