My model has crashed. Still trying to understand where the deficiency is. Iv’ve heard of a couple of things and some others, that do not fit. For example,
- I’ve heard that ppl are becoming more aware that the BTC way of having security with funds is not tenable as the private key can be guessed. *search large bitcoin collider, keys.lol
If keys can be guessed then your money isn’t safe. If someone guessed your account number should they be able to have 5-10% of your savings or potentially all of it?
There is chatter about intentionally pushing the value down because of upcoming institutional investing. I don’t know how much of this is true.
There is chatter about the BCH hard fork. This makes sense to a degree. Volatility is baked in because someone can simply fork the open source code out there because they don’t like or agree with your ideas. That being said, the U.S. dollar cannot be former by just any group. What then makes any crypto valuable and stable if a group can take the code and “mint” their own digital coin? It makes sense that some potion of the code, such as Oroborus, should be proprietary. Linux is open source but even Red Hat and other vendors have a model based on proprietary code.
There has been talk of the recent crack down on ICOs by the various state AGs. I think this has some impact as it may generate fear of a coin being labeled a security. Coins should navigate slowly through these waters. It was always said that the board would be cleared and many coins would be wiped out. I think this is true and I think ETC has a huge liability here because of all of the ERC20 coins/ICOs that originated on ETH.
The last point of discussion I’ll bring up is the fact that the market is based off of the same money. No new money has been flowing in. This is impacted by the above as well as some other issues.
I’m tracking other discussions but it’s hard to give weight to them because traffic is a bit wild right now. Everyone is trying to understand what is happening and figure out if it is too late to exit. Here’s a thought, it is. At this point, the only people who can exit are those that were in at the beginning or before the ICO. We all are now a donor pool.
On the upside, BTC is gaining more acceptance but even with this. I am not certain of how long vendors accept the coin since they’d be on the losing end right now. I am buying the dip and only what I can give away because essentially that is what I’m doing. I think the market will swing up at some point in time it’s just a matter of when. We will all be hodling for a loooong time I imagine. And if not everyone hopefully hasn’t invested their life into a coin. Remember bet only what you can afford to lose.
On a last note, everyone expects these moonshots in Dec. I don’t. For my model, this occurs after Dec because of the holidays. The moonshot last year was based off of greed alone. Nothing more nothing less. The hype has since gone. Fundamentals play a bigger role and during the holidays, people want to buy tangible assets to give away. Who is going to give away a gift that is losing value and one that nothing or very little can be done with right now? Not many so the people buying are hodlers, speculators, and traders.
Lastly, I’m glad the shift now is to Japan. Africa was a horrible call. Crypto requires computers and bandwidth. This experience is nice in developed countries but in rural Africa and areas where people are unbanked, well this just isn’t a great idea. Ask yourself this, do you think Google, Amazon, Facebook, Sony, Samsung, Tesla, GM, Mercedes, Apple, Twitter, Reddit, or any other major (let’s just consider Fortune 500) companies would have been as successful if they focused on Africa as its main driving market or one of its main focuses? The focus should be on gaining acceptance in the US, China, EMEAR and only with the major economies. Once acceptance and use is in place, the unbanked in Africa can benefit. The thing is crypto requires tech and tech costs money. Tech advances all the time which requires even more money. Tech also requires updates as well. I’m fairly certain the Daedalus doesn’t work on a 386. Hardware wallets also cost money. I doubt that many people in Africa are buying ledgers. The main focus should reflect the countries where users are buying and consuming the products required or part of the crypto-sphere. I’m sure you buy a lot of food in Africa for the cost of a Nano or Trezor. Focusing on Japan is good. I’m sympathetic to the needs of the unbanked but staring in developed markets and economies is a better approach imo.
That’s being said, I’m buying the dip. Im waiting for the bump next year. There is no more hype so we should wait for the regulatory market to provide guidance. When that happens and if money flows in, then we will see some huge gains. I’ll try modeling this as well but it’s going to take a month or so.
One last thing.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. I am not a financial advisor. Any information I have provided is purely for entertainment purposes. Readers should research any crypto investment and discuss this with their financial advisor. This is not financial advice. Any methods or models I reference are not backed by any government or financial institution.